Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Peoria, IL
March 19, 2024 7:33 AM CDT (12:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:00 AM Sunset 7:11 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM Moonset 4:40 AM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 191028 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire danger across central Illinois today due to wind gusts of 35-45mph and low relative humidity values.
- Another hard freeze expected Wednesday night when overnight lows once again dip into the middle 20s.
- Significant storm system slated to bring widespread precipitation to the region early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
07z/2am surface analysis shows a 1026mb high centered over the Deep South while a cold front drops southward through the Upper Midwest. The pressure gradient between these two features will tighten sufficiently to produce strong/gusty W/SW winds across central Illinois this morning. In addition, NAM/GFS both depict a 45-50kt 925mb jet streak developing ahead of the front from Missouri into the southern Great Lakes. While a strong nocturnal temperature inversion will initially be in place, once the depth of the mixed layer increases, some of this higher momentum air will be transported to the surface from late morning through mid-afternoon. 00z Mar 19 HRRR shows a 100% chance of gusts over 30mph across the entire KILX CWA and a high probability (50-70 percent chance) of gusts exceeding 40mph everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. Thanks to the strong winds and relative humidity values dropping into the 30s, an elevated fire risk will develop today. Burning should be avoided as fires may quickly spread out of control. The winds will gradually decrease by late afternoon, then will drop to 10mph or less by evening after the cold front passes. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s, then will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight as a cooler airmass returns. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Wednesday: however, below normal temperatures in the 40s are expected across much of the area...with lower 50s south of I-70.
As winds diminish, another cold night is on tap Wednesday night when low temperatures bottom out in the middle 20s. Precautions will once again need to be taken in order to protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation from the freezing temperatures.
Barnes
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Two weather systems will impact central Illinois in the extended.
The first will spread light precipitation into the area Thursday night into Friday...while the second more significant system will bring widespread heavier precip early next week.
A northern stream short-wave trough will drop southeastward out of Canada and skirt into the Great Lakes on Friday. WAA ahead of the wave will help light precip develop late Thursday night into Friday morning...with the highest probabilities (50-70%) focused along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line in closer proximity to the strongest lift/deepest moisture. With overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s, atmospheric profiles support a rain/snow mix north of the I-74 corridor. No snow accumulation is expected.
High pressure will bring cool/dry weather to the region Friday night through Saturday before the second system begins to approach from the southwest by late in the weekend. Model solutions still vary on timing, but all solutions track low pressure through the Midwest during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. While some previous solutions had spread light precip into at least the western half of central Illinois by late Saturday night into Sunday morning, the latest trends seem to be slowing precip onset and thus reducing the chance of a period of wet snow as it begins. Current forecast features high chance PoPs for a rain/snow mix along/west of I-55 Sunday morning, but these may need to be reduced or removed entirely if trends continue. Strongest forcing is focusing from Sunday night through Monday night when widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop. It is still too early to pinpoint exact amounts, but early indications suggest rainfall over 1 inch across the entire area.
Barnes
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Main aviation forecast challenge will be the strong wind gusts later this morning into the afternoon. Models depict a 40-50kt 925mb jet streak developing in advance of a cold front from Missouri across central Illinois by mid-morning. A strong nocturnal inversion will initially be in place: however, as the mixed layer deepens...some of this higher momentum air will be transferred to the surface. Most numeric guidance suggests W/SW gusts in the 30-35kt range from around 15z through 20z before winds veer to W/NW and the gusts slowly begin to decrease by late afternoon.
Winds will then decrease to 10kt or less after sunset.
Barnes
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire danger across central Illinois today due to wind gusts of 35-45mph and low relative humidity values.
- Another hard freeze expected Wednesday night when overnight lows once again dip into the middle 20s.
- Significant storm system slated to bring widespread precipitation to the region early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
07z/2am surface analysis shows a 1026mb high centered over the Deep South while a cold front drops southward through the Upper Midwest. The pressure gradient between these two features will tighten sufficiently to produce strong/gusty W/SW winds across central Illinois this morning. In addition, NAM/GFS both depict a 45-50kt 925mb jet streak developing ahead of the front from Missouri into the southern Great Lakes. While a strong nocturnal temperature inversion will initially be in place, once the depth of the mixed layer increases, some of this higher momentum air will be transported to the surface from late morning through mid-afternoon. 00z Mar 19 HRRR shows a 100% chance of gusts over 30mph across the entire KILX CWA and a high probability (50-70 percent chance) of gusts exceeding 40mph everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. Thanks to the strong winds and relative humidity values dropping into the 30s, an elevated fire risk will develop today. Burning should be avoided as fires may quickly spread out of control. The winds will gradually decrease by late afternoon, then will drop to 10mph or less by evening after the cold front passes. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s, then will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight as a cooler airmass returns. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Wednesday: however, below normal temperatures in the 40s are expected across much of the area...with lower 50s south of I-70.
As winds diminish, another cold night is on tap Wednesday night when low temperatures bottom out in the middle 20s. Precautions will once again need to be taken in order to protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation from the freezing temperatures.
Barnes
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Two weather systems will impact central Illinois in the extended.
The first will spread light precipitation into the area Thursday night into Friday...while the second more significant system will bring widespread heavier precip early next week.
A northern stream short-wave trough will drop southeastward out of Canada and skirt into the Great Lakes on Friday. WAA ahead of the wave will help light precip develop late Thursday night into Friday morning...with the highest probabilities (50-70%) focused along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line in closer proximity to the strongest lift/deepest moisture. With overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s, atmospheric profiles support a rain/snow mix north of the I-74 corridor. No snow accumulation is expected.
High pressure will bring cool/dry weather to the region Friday night through Saturday before the second system begins to approach from the southwest by late in the weekend. Model solutions still vary on timing, but all solutions track low pressure through the Midwest during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. While some previous solutions had spread light precip into at least the western half of central Illinois by late Saturday night into Sunday morning, the latest trends seem to be slowing precip onset and thus reducing the chance of a period of wet snow as it begins. Current forecast features high chance PoPs for a rain/snow mix along/west of I-55 Sunday morning, but these may need to be reduced or removed entirely if trends continue. Strongest forcing is focusing from Sunday night through Monday night when widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop. It is still too early to pinpoint exact amounts, but early indications suggest rainfall over 1 inch across the entire area.
Barnes
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Main aviation forecast challenge will be the strong wind gusts later this morning into the afternoon. Models depict a 40-50kt 925mb jet streak developing in advance of a cold front from Missouri across central Illinois by mid-morning. A strong nocturnal inversion will initially be in place: however, as the mixed layer deepens...some of this higher momentum air will be transferred to the surface. Most numeric guidance suggests W/SW gusts in the 30-35kt range from around 15z through 20z before winds veer to W/NW and the gusts slowly begin to decrease by late afternoon.
Winds will then decrease to 10kt or less after sunset.
Barnes
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPIA GENERAL DOWNING PEORIA INTL,IL | 5 sm | 39 min | SSW 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 18°F | 64% | 29.91 |
Central Illinois, IL,
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