Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Peoria, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:06PM Monday January 22, 2018 1:38 PM CST (19:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Peoria, IL
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location: 40.7, -89.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 221755
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
1155 am cst Mon jan 22 2018

Update
Issued at 1055 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
line of showers and thunderstorms from this morning has moved
eastward into in. Some persistent low stratus remains over the
eastern half of the state on vis Sat imagery. Significant clear
slot around the approaching storm system moving into il. Enough
llvl moisture in place to result in some low stratocu development.

How quickly the clear slot clouds over as well as how dense will
likely impact the extent of minimal instability that develops.

Cooler air is wrapping around the system, if not the larger cold
airmass back to the nw, countering the attempted warm air
advection with the southerly winds. Likely to remain gusty through
the afternoon. Minor updates to the forecast will continue, but
leaving the afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 323 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
08z 2am surface analysis shows 1000mb low over northeast
kansas... With warm front extending E NE to southern lake michigan.

A band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms has developed
within the warm sector of the system well ahead of an approaching
cold front. Latest radar imagery shows widespread showers thunder
along and west of the i-55 corridor... With the convection tracking
n ne. Based on radar timing tools, it appears most of the precip
will be east of i-55 by 12z, then will exit into indiana between
15z and 18z. Once this initial band departs, a pronounced mid-
level dry slot will bring partial clearing and a period of dry
weather from late morning through mid-afternoon. After that, the
big question will be if any additional convection will develop
along the advancing cold front late this afternoon. Due to partial
sunshine and surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s,
sbcapes will reach 400-600j kg... While 0-6km bulk shear values
range from 50-70kt. Despite this high shear moderate instability
environment, the main mitigating factor for convection later
today will be a lack of deep-layer moisture. Some high-res models
such as the nam12, hrrr, and wrf-nmm suggest widely scattered
showers storms will develop along the front across the illinois
river valley after 21z... Then will quickly track E NE late this
afternoon into the early evening. Meanwhile, other models such as
the wrf-arw and GFS show virtually no precip. At this point, will
focus highest pops during the morning hours as the main band of
precip passes, then will include low chance late this afternoon as
the cold front approaches. Any storms that fire this afternoon could
potentially produce gusty winds and small hail. High temperatures
today will climb well into the 50s.

The cold front will sweep through central illinois this evening,
followed by a return to colder conditions overnight. Overnight low
temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.

Meanwhile, wrap around moisture associated with surface low
pressure tracking into the great lakes will spill into west-
central illinois this evening... Then will spread E NE to the
indiana border toward midnight. The thermal profile will initially
be warm enough to support rain through the evening, then will cool
sufficiently to produce a rain snow mix overnight. Any snow
accumulation will be quite minor, amounting to little more than a
couple tenths of an inch along north of a rushville to bloomington
line.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 323 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
a few rain snow showers will linger across the NE kilx CWA Tuesday
morning, followed by cool dry weather by afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest clearing will be slow and will likely not occur
until Tuesday night. Main weather story will be the windy and
colder conditions as temperatures hover in the 30s and brisk
northwesterly winds gusting 25-30mph create wind-chills in the
20s. Winds will gradually subside by Wednesday, but the cool
conditions will continue as highs remain mostly in the 30s.

After a short-wave trough passes on Wednesday, upper heights will
begin to rise as another wave coming onshore across california
induces downstream ridging over the midwest. End result will be a
marked warming trend for central illinois, with highs returning
to the 50s by Friday. 00z jan 22 models have all quickened the
arrival of the late week system, with FROPA occurring on Saturday.

Ecmwf no longer develops a substantial wave along the departing
front on Sunday, so its solution is more progressive... Like the
previous runs of the GFS gem. As a result, pops will be largely
confined to the Friday night through Saturday time-frame... With
Sunday now appearing cool dry.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1146 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
clear slot around approaching low moving into central il and
creating non-homogeneous flight categories. As fast as the lifr
cigs clear, MVFR CIGS redevelop after a brief scattered deck.

South winds mainly gusting to 25kts, but llvl winds translated
down in cmi to 30-35kts. Borderline llws out of criteria now...

but winds just off the surface (1500ft) to 40kts with the
approach of the low. TS development in the clear slot still
showing with some of the CU in high res short term models... Will
keep to vcts as the coverage is not necessarily limited... But the
instability is limited enough to curb widespread thunder. Return
of low clouds later this evening under cyclonic flow of system.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Hjs
short term... Barnes
long term... Barnes
aviation... Hjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Peoria - General Downing-Peoria International Airport, IL5 mi44 minS 17 G 3010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F48°F67%996.5 hPa

Wind History from PIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE5CalmSE4S10
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1 day agoSW7S4SW6S4S7S5S3S4S3S3S6S4SE4SE5CalmSE3S4S5SE3S3SE3SE3SE4SE4
2 days agoS13
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S14S11S13S14S17S16S12S12S8S9S8S8S7S6S5S5S5S5S7SW11SW9SW10S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.