Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:48 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 311 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Mon - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 311 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure continues sliding to the southeast through this afternoon. A warm front approaches tonight and moves north on Sunday. Weak high pressure returns late Sunday into Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area on Tuesday. High pressure then briefly follows for midweek.

FXUS61 KOKX 270726 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 326 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues sliding to the southeast through this afternoon. A warm front approaches tonight and moves north on Sunday. Weak high pressure returns late Sunday into Monday.
A back door cold front moves through Monday night. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area on Tuesday. High pressure then briefly follows for midweek before another frontal system potentially impacts the area Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Another chilly early morning with frost likely across interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, S CT, and LI Pine Barrens. No changes were made to the Frost Advisory.

Sprawling high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to slide to the south and east through the day. A high amplitude upper ridge axis will remain overhead, but in the middle levels (around 700-850 mb) a weak trough approaches. This system will be moving around the periphery of the ridge, but will be accompanied by increasing clouds through the afternoon and evening. An associated warm front will lift NE across the region tonight as well. Guidance has been hinting at a weakening band of showers moving in from the west late afternoon and evening, but likely is just a signal of increasing middle level moisture. Think it remains dry until after 6 pm as low levels will be too dry to support rain reaching the surface. Scattered showers are possible tonight with slightly higher probabilities across the interior closer to more organized forcing.

Temperatures today will continue below normal, but several of the cooler spots from Friday should moderate a bit. Highs will range from the upper 50s near the coast and lower 60s elsewhere.
Milder conditions are expected tonight with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The warm front lifts north and washes out Sunday morning with any lingering showers ending around 12z. The upper ridge looks to reestablish itself to our west and the resulting subsidence should keep conditions dry into the afternoon. There is a lingering surface trough lying nearby, especially in the afternoon and evening and some weak shortwave energy riding over top the ridge. The latest CAMs have been simulating some isolated shower activity associated with the surface trough in evening and potentially first half of the night. Have gone ahead and included a slight chance PoP for showers. The surface trough looks to shift offshore early Monday morning.

The main challenge for Sunday will be temperatures as much warmer air moves in with the warm front. Mostly cloudy conditions are likely to continue in the morning but some partial clearing is expected in the afternoon. The deterministic NBM is falling at or just below its 25th percentile for highs, The flow away from the coast will be SW and this should give temperatures a boost despite potential cloud cover. As previous shifts have done, will lead towards a 50th percentile NBM for highs which yields readings in the middle to upper 70s along and west of the Hudson River and middle 60s to around 70 further east. The 75th percentile of the NBM has highs reaching or exceeding 80 degrees at Central Park and points north and west, so it is not out of the question for highs to be warmer if more sunshine occurs. Lows Sunday night will be unseasonably mild with readings in the 50s, potentially around 60 in the NYC metro.

The passage of the surface trough Sunday night leaves behind a weak NW-N flow into Monday morning. High amplitude ridge axis settles overhead with a surface ridge axis extending north from high pressure over the southeast. Confidence continues to increase for more summer-like temperatures to occur on Monday.
The question is just how high will temperatures reach. The ingredients are there including the region in the warm-sector, strong ridging, and offshore flow the first half of the day.
Past events this time of year have shown that the NBM deterministic and statistical guidance usually run too cool (only showing highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s). The 50th percentile of the NBM has highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with the 75th percentile indicating some upper 80s in the usual warmer spots. Have elected to use the 50th percentile of the NBM for this update, but could still be too low. A reasonable high end scenario is for temperatures approaching 90 degrees in NE NJ. Coastal locations will end up cooler, but still have potential to come close to 80 degrees before onshore flow develops in the afternoon.

The ridge axis remains overhead Monday night with any shortwave energy well to the north. Surface high pressure moving across southeast Canada will likely help push a back door cold front from NE to SW across the area. This may start to bring in some cooler air, but lows will still be well above normal ranging from the upper 40s east to middle to upper 50s west. Have kept the forecast dry with any shortwave energy to the north.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
There has not been a significant change in the forecast thinking for this update, and stuck closely to the national blend.

*Key Points*

*After a warm start to the week, cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but still above normal. A slight warmup then for week's end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.

Upper ridging flattens by Tuesday as the ridge axes heads east of the area. A mid level shortwave within the flow approaches from the west by afternoon bringing with it a weak cold front.
The backdoor front from Monday also remains in the region and looks to move back over, or north of the area as a warm front Tuesday AM. Thus, widespread easterly flow should keep clouds around and limit high temperatures relative to Monday, 10-15 degrees cooler. NBM temperature spread has decreased somewhat with current cycle, with high end values lowering a few degrees, adding some confidence to the temperature forecast.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially N/W of NYC still looks probable for Tuesday afternoon, with some very marginal surface based instability. Best chances for thunder are N/W of NYC where the instability is better, with BUFKIT soundings showing a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE during the afternoon.

After weak high pressure builds in behind the Tuesday system for Wednesday and Thursday, another upper low ejects out of the Northern Plains and heads into Canada Thursday into Friday. An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the area late Thursday and Friday, with additional chances of showers and possibly some thunder.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure shifts east as a warm front approaches the region later today.

VFR through most of the TAF period; MVFR possible early Sunday.

Southerly flow, at times light and variable overnight. Southerly flow persists on Saturday, with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kt and gusts of 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Lowering ceilings during the day as a warm front approaches.

Showers cannot be ruled out after 00Z Sunday, though confidence and coverage remains low. For now, have treated with Prob30s, with cigs looking to remain high end MVFR 06-12Z Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday PM: Becoming MVFR late with a chance of rain.

Sunday: Return to VFR by afternoon. Light SW flow.

Monday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through the weekend under a weak pressure gradient regime. Coastal jet development this afternoon and evening could bring marginal SCA wind gusts (20- 25kt) near the entrance to the NY Harbor.

Much of next week looks to be below sub-SCA with a weak flow across the waters. Potential fog development will have to be watched due to warmer air moving over the colder waters (SSTs near 50F), but it is much too early for any specific details on timing and extent.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008-012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070-079- 081.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

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Sayville (Brown Creek)
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Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
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Bellport
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
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