Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE
March 19, 2024 12:18 AM CDT (05:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:45 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 1:29 PM Moonset 4:24 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 182336 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 636 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Up and down temperatures through the week with unseasonable warmth Tuesday and Thursday and mild temperatures Wednesday and Friday.
- A quick moving system will bring a chance (20 to 30%) of light rain or a rain-snow mix Thursday night into Friday morning across northern and north central Nebraska. Little to no accumulations expected.
- Much cooler and unsettled conditions settle in this weekend with temperatures falling well-below normal into the 30s by next Monday.
- A strong storm system is anticipated to impact the Plains region this weekend into early next week. Though this system may be our next shot at widespread precipitation of rain and snow across the area, confidence remains far too low to determine severity of impacts. Those with travel plans this weekend into early next week will want to continue to monitor the forecast for the most up to date information.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a blocking pattern across the CONUS. The stubborn meandering closed low pressure system continues to spin over the Desert Southwest. Just to the north of this feature, upper-level high pressure was centered over the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest with a ridge extending northwest into far northern British Columbia/Alberta. Further east of this feature, an upper-level shortwave trough over the middle Mississippi Valley was digging southward into the base of a larger- scale trough. All of these features combined has resulted in northwesterly flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, low pressure was deepening over Manitoba with an attendant cold front draped west-southwest across central Canada and a warm front extending south into the northern Plains, bisecting the Nebraska Panhandle. High pressure was holding strong over the central Plains which has resulted in clear skies, warming temperatures, and lighter winds as compared to yesterday. At 4 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 42 degrees at O'Neill to 58 degrees at Imperial, Ogallala, and Gordon.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight... Quiet conditions and clear skies prevail overnight with warm air advection (WAA) increasing across the area. This will result in above normal temperatures in the 30s across western and north central Nebraska which will be +15 to 20F as compared to this morning's low temperatures which ranged from 8 to 18 degrees.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...As we head into daybreak on Tuesday, the surface low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes with an attendant cold front draped near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, clearing the area through the day. Despite cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of the passing front, temperatures will warm into the 60s across the area as the coldest air remains to the northeast of the area. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible as a very dry air mass remains in place, primarily across southwest Nebraska (Fire Zones 210 and 209). However, wind gusts of 20 miles per hour or less will lessen overall fire concerns for Tuesday. Overnight lows on Tuesday will fall into the 20s across northern Nebraska to the mid 30s across south west Nebraska.
Wednesday... From our up and down temperatures over the last few days, temperatures will be on the downward trend again on Wednesday, especially for the eastern half of the state. High temperatures ranging from the 40s across northeastern and north central Nebraska to 60 degrees across far southwest Nebraska. This fluctuation in temperatures will be felt again as we head into Thursday where highs soar back into the above normal range.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
On Thursday, west/northwest flow aloft will continue across western and north central Nebraska downstream of the upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. The upper-level low currently across the Desert Southwest finally gets its move on across the southern Plains with the approach of an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest.
Thursday will be the warmest day across the local area, though short- lived as much colder air settles in this weekend into early next week. Highs on Thursday will climb into the 60s for much of the area with southwest Nebraska breaking the 70 degree mark. The first of several disturbances to trek across the region through the long term period is expected Thursday evening into Friday bringing a chance (20 to 30%) of precipitation to northern and north central Nebraska. Temperatures will begin to fall into the mid 30s at the onset of precipitation, supporting a brief window for rain showers. However, with overnight lows quickly falling into the low 20s across northern Nebraska, expect a transition to rain-snow mix or snow showers. Anticipate any precipitation to come to an end around daybreak as the system quickly exits to the southeast. Little to no accumulations are anticipated which is highlighted by NBM probabilities for >0.1" of QPF indicating a 20% or lower.
The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will remain in place Friday, shifting eastward across the central CONUS Saturday as the upper-level trough begins to advance and dig deeper into the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Beyond this, considerable differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall evolution of how this troughing develops further eastward Sunday into early next week. One feature that has been consistently shown is that deep surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains Sunday into Monday.
The main focus in the long term period surrounds the next major system expected to arrive this weekend into early next week. The upper-level trough begins to advance and dig deeper into the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Beyond this, considerable differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall evolution of how this troughing develops further eastward Sunday into early next week. One feature that has been consistently shown is that deep surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains Sunday into Monday. Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to suggest a period of widespread precipitation across the forecast area, some snow appearing likely as well.
The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has just begun to show a signal of a potentially anomalous event across the region this weekend into early next week, though location continues to change with each run. Of note however is the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) increasing across the region with a widespread 30 to 50% probabilities of minor winter impacts across the forecast area with 5 to 10% of moderate impacts, primarily across northern Nebraska. This system remains dynamic and will continue to monitor for trends as models get a better handle on the upper-level trough as it becomes established. Those with travel plans this weekend into early next week should make sure to check future forecasts as the details become more certain.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail over western and north central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Skies are expected to remain clear, with few passing high clouds. Surface winds will shift from westerly to northerly through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. A potential aviation concern tonight will be the low level jet across portions of north central Nebraska. While the primary LLWS concerns appear to be further east, along a line from Butte to Burwell, winds around 2,000 feet AGL should remain around 30 kts out of the west, with calmer surface winds as the boundary layer decouples across north central Nebraska tonight. Will continue to monitor the location ans strength of the low level jet this evening and tonight, but for now will leave LLWS out of the TAFs.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 636 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Up and down temperatures through the week with unseasonable warmth Tuesday and Thursday and mild temperatures Wednesday and Friday.
- A quick moving system will bring a chance (20 to 30%) of light rain or a rain-snow mix Thursday night into Friday morning across northern and north central Nebraska. Little to no accumulations expected.
- Much cooler and unsettled conditions settle in this weekend with temperatures falling well-below normal into the 30s by next Monday.
- A strong storm system is anticipated to impact the Plains region this weekend into early next week. Though this system may be our next shot at widespread precipitation of rain and snow across the area, confidence remains far too low to determine severity of impacts. Those with travel plans this weekend into early next week will want to continue to monitor the forecast for the most up to date information.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a blocking pattern across the CONUS. The stubborn meandering closed low pressure system continues to spin over the Desert Southwest. Just to the north of this feature, upper-level high pressure was centered over the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest with a ridge extending northwest into far northern British Columbia/Alberta. Further east of this feature, an upper-level shortwave trough over the middle Mississippi Valley was digging southward into the base of a larger- scale trough. All of these features combined has resulted in northwesterly flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, low pressure was deepening over Manitoba with an attendant cold front draped west-southwest across central Canada and a warm front extending south into the northern Plains, bisecting the Nebraska Panhandle. High pressure was holding strong over the central Plains which has resulted in clear skies, warming temperatures, and lighter winds as compared to yesterday. At 4 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 42 degrees at O'Neill to 58 degrees at Imperial, Ogallala, and Gordon.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight... Quiet conditions and clear skies prevail overnight with warm air advection (WAA) increasing across the area. This will result in above normal temperatures in the 30s across western and north central Nebraska which will be +15 to 20F as compared to this morning's low temperatures which ranged from 8 to 18 degrees.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...As we head into daybreak on Tuesday, the surface low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes with an attendant cold front draped near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, clearing the area through the day. Despite cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of the passing front, temperatures will warm into the 60s across the area as the coldest air remains to the northeast of the area. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible as a very dry air mass remains in place, primarily across southwest Nebraska (Fire Zones 210 and 209). However, wind gusts of 20 miles per hour or less will lessen overall fire concerns for Tuesday. Overnight lows on Tuesday will fall into the 20s across northern Nebraska to the mid 30s across south west Nebraska.
Wednesday... From our up and down temperatures over the last few days, temperatures will be on the downward trend again on Wednesday, especially for the eastern half of the state. High temperatures ranging from the 40s across northeastern and north central Nebraska to 60 degrees across far southwest Nebraska. This fluctuation in temperatures will be felt again as we head into Thursday where highs soar back into the above normal range.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
On Thursday, west/northwest flow aloft will continue across western and north central Nebraska downstream of the upper-level ridge across the western CONUS. The upper-level low currently across the Desert Southwest finally gets its move on across the southern Plains with the approach of an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest.
Thursday will be the warmest day across the local area, though short- lived as much colder air settles in this weekend into early next week. Highs on Thursday will climb into the 60s for much of the area with southwest Nebraska breaking the 70 degree mark. The first of several disturbances to trek across the region through the long term period is expected Thursday evening into Friday bringing a chance (20 to 30%) of precipitation to northern and north central Nebraska. Temperatures will begin to fall into the mid 30s at the onset of precipitation, supporting a brief window for rain showers. However, with overnight lows quickly falling into the low 20s across northern Nebraska, expect a transition to rain-snow mix or snow showers. Anticipate any precipitation to come to an end around daybreak as the system quickly exits to the southeast. Little to no accumulations are anticipated which is highlighted by NBM probabilities for >0.1" of QPF indicating a 20% or lower.
The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will remain in place Friday, shifting eastward across the central CONUS Saturday as the upper-level trough begins to advance and dig deeper into the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Beyond this, considerable differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall evolution of how this troughing develops further eastward Sunday into early next week. One feature that has been consistently shown is that deep surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains Sunday into Monday.
The main focus in the long term period surrounds the next major system expected to arrive this weekend into early next week. The upper-level trough begins to advance and dig deeper into the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Beyond this, considerable differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall evolution of how this troughing develops further eastward Sunday into early next week. One feature that has been consistently shown is that deep surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains Sunday into Monday. Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to suggest a period of widespread precipitation across the forecast area, some snow appearing likely as well.
The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has just begun to show a signal of a potentially anomalous event across the region this weekend into early next week, though location continues to change with each run. Of note however is the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) increasing across the region with a widespread 30 to 50% probabilities of minor winter impacts across the forecast area with 5 to 10% of moderate impacts, primarily across northern Nebraska. This system remains dynamic and will continue to monitor for trends as models get a better handle on the upper-level trough as it becomes established. Those with travel plans this weekend into early next week should make sure to check future forecasts as the details become more certain.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail over western and north central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Skies are expected to remain clear, with few passing high clouds. Surface winds will shift from westerly to northerly through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. A potential aviation concern tonight will be the low level jet across portions of north central Nebraska. While the primary LLWS concerns appear to be further east, along a line from Butte to Burwell, winds around 2,000 feet AGL should remain around 30 kts out of the west, with calmer surface winds as the boundary layer decouples across north central Nebraska tonight. Will continue to monitor the location ans strength of the low level jet this evening and tonight, but for now will leave LLWS out of the TAFs.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
North Platte, NE,
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