Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE
May 5, 2024 7:14 AM CDT (12:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:09 AM Moonset 5:05 PM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 051138 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 638 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe weather is possible across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The primary concern is wind damage and large hail. The tornado risk is currently 2 percent, which is low.
- Weather conditions are being monitored for high winds across nrn Nebraska Monday. Confidence is too low to warrant a High Wind Watch or Warning for this forecast.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Pockets of stratus are developing across wrn KS and ern Colo this morning. The SREF and to a lesser extent the HRRR suggest a sunrise surprise across wrn Nebraska. This means mixing processes after sunrise this morning will cause areas of stratus to form. The models suggest the stratus will mix out this afternoon and then reform this evening and overnight. The moisture will be deep enough, near 800mb, for drizzle or light showers late tonight. The approach of a strong Pacific cold front, falling heights and PV1.5 anomaly early Monday morning should set off thunderstorms. Moisture will deepen further to 700mb or higher Monday morning.
The models appear to be a bit faster with the timing of the Pacific front and the front could be east of ncntl Nebraska by 21z Monday afternoon. WPC has trended QPF amounts down. Winds aloft are strong but fairly unidirectional and the models show a fast moving linear line of thunderstorms stretching north and south from SD through Nebraska to KS. Wind damage appears to be the primary concern across ncntl Nebraska followed by large hail. SPC suggested just a 2 percent tornado risk across ncntl Nebraska. It's worth noting, some of the CAMs show this line of storms underway as early as 15z Monday morning. Warm air advection for this system will be aimed at cntl and ern Nebraska and really won't be established until 18z. Thus, the severe weather risk is modest and SPC has assigned a slight risk for hail and wind.
The temperature forecast today through Sunday is on the warmer side of the forecast envelop for highs in the 60s to near 70 both days and lows in the 50s tonight. It uses the RAP and short term model blend plus bias correction.
The wind forecast Monday is troubling given sub 990mb sfc low pressure will form across the nrn Plains. This low will deepen to near 980mb Monday night. The concern is high winds across nrn Nebraska Monday. Bufkit-GFS suggested high wind gusts from KVTN west, generally along highway 20. This area will be closest to the deepening sfc low across the Dakotas. High winds are backed by the ECM and GFS operational but the CAMs and the NBM 90th percentile are negative which makes the forecast uncertain.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
980mb sfc low pressure should be established across the nrn Plains Tuesday morning. The models show a belt of high winds circulating close to the low center across ern MT, nrn WY and nrn SD; safely north of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Windy conditions are expected across Nebraska but below high wind criteria.
Wrn/ncntl Nebraska gets POPs for shra and thunderstorms developing in wrap around moisture.
The upper low will slowly fill and drift south through Nebraska Wednesday for additional shower and thunderstorm development. This activity should remain mostly isolated to scattered. Lingering cold air aloft Thursday and Friday will also produce showers and thunderstorms. Most likely, the rain Tuesday through Friday will be diurnally enhanced.
Saturday and beyond, the models are in good agreement developing a winter-type split flow pattern aloft featuring a belt of strong subtropical winds across the srn States and nw flow across Nebraska and areas north. This should produce dry weather across Nebraska.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Low-level moisture will begin to spread north from the Gulf/southern plains today. Lower clouds will increase across southwest Nebraska this morning as the moisture spreads northward into the region. MVFR is expected across far southwest Nebraska from mid morning to mid afternoon before lifting.
Later this evening, IFR ceilings will develop northward into the area as the better moisture arrives. The other story will be gusty south to southeast winds mid-morning onward. Southerly low-level wind shear will develop overnight tonight.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 638 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe weather is possible across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The primary concern is wind damage and large hail. The tornado risk is currently 2 percent, which is low.
- Weather conditions are being monitored for high winds across nrn Nebraska Monday. Confidence is too low to warrant a High Wind Watch or Warning for this forecast.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Pockets of stratus are developing across wrn KS and ern Colo this morning. The SREF and to a lesser extent the HRRR suggest a sunrise surprise across wrn Nebraska. This means mixing processes after sunrise this morning will cause areas of stratus to form. The models suggest the stratus will mix out this afternoon and then reform this evening and overnight. The moisture will be deep enough, near 800mb, for drizzle or light showers late tonight. The approach of a strong Pacific cold front, falling heights and PV1.5 anomaly early Monday morning should set off thunderstorms. Moisture will deepen further to 700mb or higher Monday morning.
The models appear to be a bit faster with the timing of the Pacific front and the front could be east of ncntl Nebraska by 21z Monday afternoon. WPC has trended QPF amounts down. Winds aloft are strong but fairly unidirectional and the models show a fast moving linear line of thunderstorms stretching north and south from SD through Nebraska to KS. Wind damage appears to be the primary concern across ncntl Nebraska followed by large hail. SPC suggested just a 2 percent tornado risk across ncntl Nebraska. It's worth noting, some of the CAMs show this line of storms underway as early as 15z Monday morning. Warm air advection for this system will be aimed at cntl and ern Nebraska and really won't be established until 18z. Thus, the severe weather risk is modest and SPC has assigned a slight risk for hail and wind.
The temperature forecast today through Sunday is on the warmer side of the forecast envelop for highs in the 60s to near 70 both days and lows in the 50s tonight. It uses the RAP and short term model blend plus bias correction.
The wind forecast Monday is troubling given sub 990mb sfc low pressure will form across the nrn Plains. This low will deepen to near 980mb Monday night. The concern is high winds across nrn Nebraska Monday. Bufkit-GFS suggested high wind gusts from KVTN west, generally along highway 20. This area will be closest to the deepening sfc low across the Dakotas. High winds are backed by the ECM and GFS operational but the CAMs and the NBM 90th percentile are negative which makes the forecast uncertain.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
980mb sfc low pressure should be established across the nrn Plains Tuesday morning. The models show a belt of high winds circulating close to the low center across ern MT, nrn WY and nrn SD; safely north of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Windy conditions are expected across Nebraska but below high wind criteria.
Wrn/ncntl Nebraska gets POPs for shra and thunderstorms developing in wrap around moisture.
The upper low will slowly fill and drift south through Nebraska Wednesday for additional shower and thunderstorm development. This activity should remain mostly isolated to scattered. Lingering cold air aloft Thursday and Friday will also produce showers and thunderstorms. Most likely, the rain Tuesday through Friday will be diurnally enhanced.
Saturday and beyond, the models are in good agreement developing a winter-type split flow pattern aloft featuring a belt of strong subtropical winds across the srn States and nw flow across Nebraska and areas north. This should produce dry weather across Nebraska.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Low-level moisture will begin to spread north from the Gulf/southern plains today. Lower clouds will increase across southwest Nebraska this morning as the moisture spreads northward into the region. MVFR is expected across far southwest Nebraska from mid morning to mid afternoon before lifting.
Later this evening, IFR ceilings will develop northward into the area as the better moisture arrives. The other story will be gusty south to southeast winds mid-morning onward. Southerly low-level wind shear will develop overnight tonight.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
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North Platte, NE,
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