Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 3:20 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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PZZ410 1057 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 27 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Coastal waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca out 10 nm - . Coastal waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca out 10 nm - . Humboldt bay - . Humboldt bay bar - . Waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca from 10 to 60 nm - . Waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca from 10 to 60 nm - .
at 1056 pm pdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm northwest of cape mendocino to 37 nm southwest of eureka, moving northeast at 25 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
water spouts are possible along with stronger Thunderstorms - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4082 12409 4080 12413 4081 12416 4080 12418 4075 12419 4072 12422 4070 12421 4069 12423 4071 12427 4061 12433 4044 12441 4039 12437 4023 12480 4061 12466 4087 12416 4076 12423 4086 12415 4085 12412 4086 12410

PZZ400 854 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Northerly gales in the outer waters will continue through the weekend as large, short- period seas persist across all zones. Winds and seas expected to subside slightly before increasing again Sunday afternoon with a concentration in the southern waters. Gale or near-gale force winds and hazardous seas remain likely late this weekend through early next week.

FXUS63 KLBF 181937 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern brings a variety of impacts, including severe weather and heavy rainfall Sunday through Tuesday.

- A limited threat for late season frost, but cannot rule out a localized threat following a cool down mid week.

- The pattern remains active through the week, brining the potential for precipitation nearly every day. Confidence on daily precipitation chances remains relatively low, due to uncertainty in exactly how the upper level pattern evolves.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery this morning reveal an upper level low over north central North Dakota, and a developing shortwave over western Washington. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over Winnipeg, Manitoba this morning, with a cold front extending south through north central Kansas. High pressure is observed over the Nebraska Panhandle.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Tonight, the stage becomes set for several days of active weather.
As surface high pressure ejects to the east, a weak surface boundary may be the focus for some showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday morning, particularly across southwest Nebraska. As the nocturnal low level jet settles in, a plume of warm, moist air advects into the region. While this is happening, a low pressure system over Wyoming is expected to form and mature, developing a warm front and cold front before it heads east.

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be how long these showers and thunderstorms linger, which sets up two main scenarios for Sunday evening. If the storms exit the region more quickly, as seen in HRRR guidance, there is a greater period of daytime heating, and as such a greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon and evening. These solutions are presenting decent surface based CAPE and generally initiate storms along a line through most of the region. On the other hand, there is some slower guidance such as the NAM Nest, which holds the cloud cover from showers and storms a bit longer, limiting the daytime heating. These slower solutions limit the surface based CAPE, keeping storms more elevated in nature, and in some cases wipes the thunderstorm threat out by tomorrow evening.

What does remain consistent is the plume of moisture ahead of the approaching system. Additionally, forecast soundings all tend to show a potential severe weather environment tomorrow evening, with ample CAPE and shear profiles. If the daytime heating can erode the capping layer, and storms can tap into the surface based layer, the environment seems primed to produce large hail and damaging winds.
If the cap remains in place, then convection likely remains elevated, still with large hail potential, but may end up being hindered unless it can tap into the surface moisture.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms Sunday night begin to taper off after midnight, giving a brief dry period on Monday morning. By the afternoon, another batch of showers and thunderstorms develops to the west and begins to track across the forecast area. Overnight Monday into Tuesday continues to be highlighted as the peak intensity of this precipitation event. Current guidance suggests that forecast precipitable water values will exceed the climatological 90th percentile. To further back this, ensemble guidance is now highlighting portions of north central Nebraska and the Sandhills with a 60 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain in 24 hours. As for expected amounts, followed with the Weather Prediction Center guidance which calls for storm total rainfall around 1 to 3 inches across the region from tonight through early Wednesday morning.
Currently, the highest amounts are expected across the Sandhills, but with the convective nature of the rain, locally higher amounts are possible.

The next concern comes with a mid week cool off Wednesday morning.
The latest forecast sees temperatures trending up slightly, however some of the lower end guidance brings mid to lower 30s across southern portions of the Panhandle. Will continue to keep an eye on temperature trends over the next several days, as temperatures in the mid to lower 30s could cause some late season frost concerns across the southern Panhandle. At this time, the chances seem somewhat limited, but again, will be worth keeping a close eye on.

Mid week through the end of the week, the upper level pattern remains fairly active. A series of shortwave and upper level lows persist across the Northern Plains, with variations in the placement of surface systems and associated rainfall. Precipitation chances remain through the end of the week, however, it is a bit difficult to nail down a precise timing right now. Certainly, the synoptic forcing will be there, so it will also be worth keeping an eye on how the upper level pattern evolves over the next several days to more precisely time precipitation chances through the week. For now, will continue to stick with general chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week, however, follow on forecasts may be able to refine the timing as models resolve the pattern later this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR will continue through this evening for western and north central Nebraska terminals as high pressure provides fair skies and a gradually waning northerly breeze. Gusts above 20kts should decrease to below 12 kts by 18/21z. Northerly winds transition to east and eventually southeast/south through the course of the evening and nighttime. Clouds will also fill in and lower as rain showers develop early tomorrow morning. MVFR to locally IFR ceilings are likely for southern terminals (LBF)
after sunrise, while southerly winds also strengthen with gusts exceeding 25 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Arcata Wharf
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Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 AM PDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:05 PM PDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:37 PM PDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arcata Wharf, Humboldt Bay, California, Tide feet

Eureka Slough Bridge
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Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:46 AM PDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM PDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM PDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eureka Slough Bridge, Humboldt Bay, California, Tide feet

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