Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winamac, IN
March 19, 2024 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:47 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 1:31 PM Moonset 4:29 AM |
LMZ745 Expires:202403190930;;983618 Fzus53 Klot 190249 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 949 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz744-745-190930- gary to burns harbor in-burns harbor to michigan city in- 949 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
.gale warning in effect from 4 am cdt Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon - .
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening - .
Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest and increasing to 30 kt after midnight, then to 35 kt gales late. Mostly clear late in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday - Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west and diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 949 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz744-745-190930- gary to burns harbor in-burns harbor to michigan city in- 949 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
LMZ700
No data
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 190724 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 324 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph are expected today with a few sporadic 45 mph gusts possible.
- Cold, below freezing overnight low temperatures are expected tonight through the weekend with the coldest lows occurring Wednesday and Saturday nights, when lows in the 20s are likely.
- The next chance for precipitation is later Thursday night through Friday with some combination of snow and rain possible.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The trough and its attendant vorticity that brought the colder temperatures Monday shifts east as surface high pressure noses into the area from the south. Meanwhile, a second vort max passes through the Northern Great Lakes today forcing a clipper system on a track eastward to north. Plenty of low level dry air will keep any precipitation at bay despite the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Warm air advection out in front of the cold front will help warm temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s today and will also provide a low level inversion restricting mixing. A 45 kt low level jet will slide through the area today increasing wind gusts across the area. NAM bufkit soundings indicate 30-39 kt (35 to 44 mph) gusts could easily be brought down to the surface with the occasional 40 kt (around 45 mph) gust possible. The upper mixing threshold seems to reach 45 to 50 kts, which may allow the cold front to bring down such winds. Am a little skeptical of such an occurrence given the warm advection pattern we're in. With the dry air (30-40 percent MinRH values), warm temperatures, and gusty winds, this is generally the first clue for fire weather, however, the 10 hr fuels are still a little moist in the 10-15 percent range as opposed to the single digits, which would point to more sporadic grass fires if anything does get going. With the aforementioned trough axis shifting eastward today, 850 mb temperatures will be increasing overnight and the boundary layer remains coupled enough to restrict radiational cooling such that we bottom out in the low 30s to upper 20s as opposed to the mid to upper 20s last night.
As is typical behind clipper systems, the surface high pressure system following behind it noses in keeping the area dry Wednesday and Thursday. The cold advection behind the clipper system helps high temperatures fall back below seasonal norms to between the mid 30s and the mid 40s. Additionally, it will also help lows to fall to the low 20s and upper teens Wednesday night It'll take until Thursday to relax the pressure gradient overhead as the high pressure center approaches allowing 25 to 30 mph gusts Wednesday, but sustained winds failing to exceed 10 kts on Thursday. Wednesday may make another run at fire weather potential with the gusty winds and dry weather (25 to 40 percent MinRH) along with drier 10 hr fuels.
Chances for precipitation increase Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system ejects off the Rockies. A setup where the energy for this system actually goes to the north and the moisture plume stays to the south is a possibility with this system, which may make for a later start time and could cut out any snow mention at all. The GFS seems to advertise such a solution, but it's an outlier from the EC and GEM solutions. It does look like warming takes place even on the ECMWF despite precipitation occuring in its solution so rain may be able to mix in during the day times. This looks to vacate the area Friday night. We are currently advertising upper 30s to upper 40s for highs Friday, but, again, depending on if it precipitates, could see these dropping in future runs.
The weekend has begun to look drier as an upper low over eastern Canada has trended southward slowing the advance of moisture out of the Plains towards the region. Temperatures trend warmer through the 40s on Saturday to reaching 50 in our south Sunday. Models diverge, next week, as it pertains to the sharpness of the trough ejecting from the southwest. It could cause a low pressure system to ride northward to the west of our region or it may graze our west.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR this period. Fast moving clipper skirting the nrn lakes will yield a period of intense warm advection today with deep mixing developing quickly this morning. Expect swrly winds will escalate quickly after sunrise with peak gusts to 40kts or better this aftn.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 324 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph are expected today with a few sporadic 45 mph gusts possible.
- Cold, below freezing overnight low temperatures are expected tonight through the weekend with the coldest lows occurring Wednesday and Saturday nights, when lows in the 20s are likely.
- The next chance for precipitation is later Thursday night through Friday with some combination of snow and rain possible.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The trough and its attendant vorticity that brought the colder temperatures Monday shifts east as surface high pressure noses into the area from the south. Meanwhile, a second vort max passes through the Northern Great Lakes today forcing a clipper system on a track eastward to north. Plenty of low level dry air will keep any precipitation at bay despite the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Warm air advection out in front of the cold front will help warm temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s today and will also provide a low level inversion restricting mixing. A 45 kt low level jet will slide through the area today increasing wind gusts across the area. NAM bufkit soundings indicate 30-39 kt (35 to 44 mph) gusts could easily be brought down to the surface with the occasional 40 kt (around 45 mph) gust possible. The upper mixing threshold seems to reach 45 to 50 kts, which may allow the cold front to bring down such winds. Am a little skeptical of such an occurrence given the warm advection pattern we're in. With the dry air (30-40 percent MinRH values), warm temperatures, and gusty winds, this is generally the first clue for fire weather, however, the 10 hr fuels are still a little moist in the 10-15 percent range as opposed to the single digits, which would point to more sporadic grass fires if anything does get going. With the aforementioned trough axis shifting eastward today, 850 mb temperatures will be increasing overnight and the boundary layer remains coupled enough to restrict radiational cooling such that we bottom out in the low 30s to upper 20s as opposed to the mid to upper 20s last night.
As is typical behind clipper systems, the surface high pressure system following behind it noses in keeping the area dry Wednesday and Thursday. The cold advection behind the clipper system helps high temperatures fall back below seasonal norms to between the mid 30s and the mid 40s. Additionally, it will also help lows to fall to the low 20s and upper teens Wednesday night It'll take until Thursday to relax the pressure gradient overhead as the high pressure center approaches allowing 25 to 30 mph gusts Wednesday, but sustained winds failing to exceed 10 kts on Thursday. Wednesday may make another run at fire weather potential with the gusty winds and dry weather (25 to 40 percent MinRH) along with drier 10 hr fuels.
Chances for precipitation increase Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system ejects off the Rockies. A setup where the energy for this system actually goes to the north and the moisture plume stays to the south is a possibility with this system, which may make for a later start time and could cut out any snow mention at all. The GFS seems to advertise such a solution, but it's an outlier from the EC and GEM solutions. It does look like warming takes place even on the ECMWF despite precipitation occuring in its solution so rain may be able to mix in during the day times. This looks to vacate the area Friday night. We are currently advertising upper 30s to upper 40s for highs Friday, but, again, depending on if it precipitates, could see these dropping in future runs.
The weekend has begun to look drier as an upper low over eastern Canada has trended southward slowing the advance of moisture out of the Plains towards the region. Temperatures trend warmer through the 40s on Saturday to reaching 50 in our south Sunday. Models diverge, next week, as it pertains to the sharpness of the trough ejecting from the southwest. It could cause a low pressure system to ride northward to the west of our region or it may graze our west.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR this period. Fast moving clipper skirting the nrn lakes will yield a period of intense warm advection today with deep mixing developing quickly this morning. Expect swrly winds will escalate quickly after sunrise with peak gusts to 40kts or better this aftn.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 46 mi | 66 min | SW 7G | 31°F | 30.03 | |||
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 47 mi | 26 min | SSW 17G | 31°F | 30.00 | 17°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOXI STARKE COUNTY,IN | 18 sm | 10 min | WSW 10G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 28°F | 12°F | 50% | 30.02 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
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