Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winamac, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:30 AM EST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ745 Expires:201901241630;;843642 Fzus53 Klot 240935 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 335 Am Cst Thu Jan 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-241630- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 335 Am Cst Thu Jan 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon cst today through Friday afternoon...
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect from this evening through Friday evening...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt this afternoon. A few gale force gusts to 35 kt late. Freezing spray. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt. Occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Heavy freezing spray. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Heavy freezing spray in the evening, then freezing spray overnight. Chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ745


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winamac, IN
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location: 41.07, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 240858
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
358 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
an arctic front will cross the region this evening and bring light
snow showers... Gusty winds... And much colder temperatures for
Friday. Highs on Friday will remain around 10 degrees with morning
wind chill values of 10 below to 20 below zero. 1 to 3 inches of
lake effect snow is also expected in southwest michigan tonight with
patchy blowing snow due to the gusty winds. Temperatures only
moderate slightly through early next week before dropping again.

There will be several chances for light snow through early next week
with the best chance for accumulations on Monday.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
main focus of short term will be on arctic frontal passage this
evening and the ensuing cold temps and lake effect snow tonight into
tomorrow. Parent shortwave currently diving out of central canada
and associated cold front will cross our area during the early
evening. Deep layer moisture is severely limited so not expecting
any substantive snow accumulation with the synoptic portion.

However... Lower levels will be very unstable in strong CAA regime
with convective ascent supersaturation intersecting the dgz. This
should be enough to generate some sct snow showers with some minor
vis reduction travel impacts during the evening commute. (for most
of the area... Impacts will not arrive until around 6pm or later.)
attention then turns to the lake effect portion. Far from a superb
setup with westerly winds, extreme dry air entrainment (upstream
surface dewpoints below -10f), and dgz increasingly below cloud
deck. There is a brief window during the mid-late evening where
inversion heights are decent (around 7 kft) with active dgz and
modest instability as measured by theta-e lapse rates but the window
is very small (roughly 23-05z). After that... Inversion heights drop,
dry air entrainment increases, and cloud temps drop below -20c.

Think we will struggle to get much above an inch or two during this
event. Normally would not even consider an advisory but the winds
will be gusting up to 35 mph given efficient mixing and could lead
to some additional impacts with patches of blowing snow and reduced
vis due to small flake size. Also will be flirting with wind chill
advisory criteria Fri am even in berrien and cass so will hold
with winter weather advisory and just make some minor adjustments
to timing. Any residual lake effect will taper off by late fri
morning and bulk of the day should be dry.

Final item of note is the cold wind chill temps for Fri am. 850mb
temps drop below -20c for much of the area by late tonight and
latest guidance still shows temps dropping to around zero by fri
morning. More pressing issue will be winds of 15-25 mph making it
feel like -10 to -20f. Have therefore issued a wind chill advisory
for entire cwa. Eastern and northern fringes may be marginal given
lake clouds and slightly warmer temps but still briefly touch
criteria and prefer not to get too cute delineating such a minor
difference in apparent temps.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
temps moderate over the weekend but only slightly as 850mb temps
remain hovering in the mid teens below zero... Yielding highs in the
upper teens to mid 20s. Two weak clipper systems will impact the
area over the weekend... One Friday night and another one Saturday
night Sunday. Forcing is incredibly weak in each case with very
subtle shortwaves embedded in overall fast, cyclonic flow aloft.

Positive side to resident cold air is that freezing drizzle will not
be a concern and anticipate just some very light (<1") snow accums.

Slightly more possible near lake mi but lake effect parameters are
marginal at best and only for brief time periods.

Still keeping an eye on much more robust shortwave for mon. Dynamics
and moisture associated with this wave are potentially much better
but models continue to struggle on strength and track... Which will
of course dictate both amount duration of QPF and precip types.

Slight trend toward a more northern track warmer solution but still
incredible spread in ensemble (and deterministic for that matter)
members. This is not surprising considering origins of this short
wavelength feature are still well out in the north pacific and
unlikely to have any certainty for several more days.

What is a bit more certain and potentially more impactful is the
degree of cold air expected during the middle of next week. 00z gfs
and ECMWF continue to show extremely cold 850mb temps of around -35f
directly overhead by Wed of next week. Though exact magnitude of
cold air remains questionable at this time range... There is
consistency in overall longwave hemispheric pattern favoring much
below normal temps... And possibly the coldest we have seen in quite
some time.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1253 am est Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR CIGS to persist through most, if not all the period for both
sites as colder air continues to stream in with even colder shot
of air arriving by tonight. Fzdz being reported at kfwa with loss
of ice in the clouds at present. This should be short lived,
winding down in the next couple of hours, but still requiring
addition to taf. Scattered light snow showers will be possible
this afternoon at both sites, but coverage and impacts at both
airports appears to low for now to have in taf. By 00z fri, lake
effect snow showers and increasing winds will arrive and may
impact ksbn the remainder of the period. Have limited vsby impacts
at this point as think worst may remain north of the site.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Wind chill advisory from 3 am est 2 am cst to 1 pm est noon
cst Friday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

Mi... Wind chill advisory from 3 am to 1 pm est Friday for miz079>081.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for miz077-078.

Oh... Wind chill advisory from 3 am to 1 pm est Friday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est
Friday for lmz043-046.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi51 min W 5.1 G 7 22°F 1011.2 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 63 mi37 min WSW 5.1 G 7 15°F 1009.9 hPa12°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi56 minW 710.00 miOvercast21°F17°F86%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from OXI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE10SE19
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S8S7S4SE4SE3SE4CalmSE4SE7SE5CalmSE3SE6SE7SE9SE8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E9SE7SE7SE10SE10SE8SE5SE8SE10SE13SE11
G17
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G20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.