Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winamac, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:43 PM EDT (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ745 Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 250 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt shifting to northwest 20 to 25 kt overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ745 Expires:201810170330;;285941 FZUS53 KLOT 161950 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ743>745-170330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winamac, IN
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location: 41.07, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 170028
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
828 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
a weak cold front will drop south tonight and bring cooler
temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 40s. Frost and
freezing temperatures are expected again late Wednesday night and
early Thursday. The cool pattern will continue through the
upcoming weekend with a small chance for lake effect rain and snow
showers.

Update
Issued at 805 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
gustiness has shown a sharp drop off over the past few hours with
some boundary decoupling beginning. Moderate pre-frontal gradient
will allow winds to remain in the 10 to 15 mph range through much
of the night. Sfc cold front draped from east central wisconsin to
eastern iowa will reach far northern indiana after 08z. Main
question will be potential of any isolated showers with this front
overnight into Tuesday morning. Moisture depths are somewhat
lacking for more notable rain shower chances, although after 09z,
mid upper level forcing will be on the upswing as strong vort max
associated with next southeast diving southern canadian upper jet
streak impinges on the southern great lakes. While confidence
remains on the low side, will maintain isolated shower mention
late overnight Wednesday morning. Lows should remain in the upper
30s to lower 40s with moderate gradient preventing optimal
radiational losses.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
after a chilly start to the day, moderating temperatures have
managed to reach into the lower to mid 50s areawide. Breezy
conditions across northern indiana, lower michigan, and northwest
ohio, will continue until until sunset before dropping into the
10 to 15 mph range.

A trough sweeping across ontario will send a cold front across
the western great lakes tonight. This initial push of the front
will generally shift winds more out of a west-northwest direction
and provide increased cloud cover. This will help to keep
overnight temperatures warmer compared to this morning. With the
winds staying around 10kt and the increased cloud cover limiting
cooling potential, frost potential is negligible.

A secondary surge of cold air arrives Wednesday morning to
prevent much of a warmup. Did insert mention of isolated showers
primarily for locations north of i-80 given ample moisture plume
from lake michigan and steep low level lapse rates. Drier
conditions build in during the afternoon hours as surface high
pressure builds from the west.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
slow eastward propagating high pressure expected Wednesday night
through Thursday. Light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
for another morning of near freezing temperatures early Thursday
morning.

High pressure ejects east of the region on Friday as the next
trough quickly moves across the northern great plains. This trough
brings a round of showers to the western great lakes Friday
evening. This initial trough is quickly followed by a compact low
from alberta Saturday night. This low will bring another strong
cold front across the western great lakes Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Model soundings show potential for rain and snow
showers Saturday night into Sunday. Orientation of winds aloft to
lake michigan and enhanced low level lapse rates would point to
lake effect potential. One word of caution concerning frozen
precip potential is a warming trend of mid and low levels with
time seen in recent model runs. If this trend holds true then
saturation would occur outside of the dgz.

Precip clears the area Sunday afternoon as another surface high
builds in from the west. This high quickly traverses eastward as
another trough (and associated surface cold surge) drops out of
manitoba and across north dakota and minnesota, and brings cooler
conditions for early next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 805 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
primarilyVFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast
valid period. Stronger gusts have diminished early this evening
with some decoupling beginning across northern indiana. A
moderate sfc pressure gradient will remain in place overnight that
should support pre-frontal west-southwest winds of 10 to 15
knots. Winds to shift west-northwest early Wednesday morning with
relatively deep post-frontal mixing to around 5000 ft supporting
daytime wind gusts to around 25 knots. Low chances of an isolated
shower should remain primarily east and north of ksbn late
overnight Wednesday morning coincident with stronger upper forcing
clipping southern great lakes. Some guidance also hints at very
brief window of some llws concerns at kfwa in the 03z-06z
timeframe, but given brief, marginal nature and low confidence in
meeting criteria, will hold off on mention with the 00z tafs.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lmz043-046.

Update... Marsili
synopsis... Cm
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
\aviation... Marsili
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi64 min SSW 8.9 G 11 54°F 1017.6 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 47 mi44 min S 17 G 19 52°F 33°F
45170 49 mi34 min WSW 19 G 27 55°F 59°F4 ft40°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 63 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 53°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.9)36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi69 minSW 810.00 miFair46°F32°F57%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from OXI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W5W6SW4SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW3SW7SW15
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1 day agoCalmN5N4N3NW3NW3NW7NW8
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2 days agoCalmS3S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3SE3S7S6S6SE5S7S7S4S6SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.