Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 8:43 PM   Moonset 6:02 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 615 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less. Scattered showers. Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Isolated showers in the evening. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 615 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system moves across the region into early this evening. Strong high pressure then builds in tonight through Friday. The high remains over the area Friday night into Saturday and shifts to the south Saturday night as low pressure moves northeast across the upper great lakes into canada and an associated warm front approaches. The front will lift through on Sunday but remain nearby to the east early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 241151 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system moves across the region through early this evening. Strong high pressure then builds in tonight through Friday. The strong high remains over the area Friday night into Saturday and will shift to the south Saturday night as low pressure moves northeast across the upper Great Lakes into Canada and an associated warm front approaches. The front will lift through on Sunday but remain nearby to the east early next week. A cold front will approach on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
Only minor changes were made for current conditions.

A warm front to the southwest, across southeastern Pennsylvania into southern New Jersey will move through the area early this morning, and any showers will briefly come to an end. However, with the surface low and cold front, along the US/Canada border at 08Z, moving toward the region showers will become possible until the front moves south of the area early this evening. Low level moisture will be limited with the cold front as lift and CAPE and instability increase. With the low levels dry, and an inverted V sounding, scattered showers could produce some brief gusty winds. And while a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out this afternoon as the capping is mixed out, have not included in the forecast as any thunderstorms will be rather isolated. CAMs continue to show widely scattered to isolated showers, and opted to use coverage terminology for the showers to indicate this.

SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure builds into the region from the west/northwest this evening through Friday, as a high amplitude ridge builds to the west, as the upper trough remains from eastern Canada to off shore of the New England coast. A chilly airmass will remain over the region, and begin to modify Friday. Temperature will be around 10 degrees below normal tonight through Thursday night, and around 5 below normal for Friday. With light to near calm wind Thursday night, and clear conditions, temperatures are expected to once again fall to near or below freezing across the inland zones, and additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Much of this time frame will feature an omega block over the eastern CONUS, with its western leg over the central states and multiple shortwaves lifting NE through the Plains states and upper Great Lakes, its eastern leg over the Canadian Maritimes and adjacent Atlantic, and an upper ridge over the East. The first of the shortwaves lifting through the Plains and Great Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Sat night that should then lift through on Sunday, with low chance for showers mainly inland. A warming trend will then follow, with temps well above normal especially from the NYC metro area north/west, with highs well into the lower/mid 70s on Sunday and either side of 80 on Mon. Most of Long Island and S CT should be cooler, with highs in the 60s, to near 70 on Mon, due to onshore flow and afternoon sea breezes, also some intrusion of cooler maritime air from the east depending on the position and intensity of low pressure developing well to the east over the Atlantic.

The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the upper ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the west, bringing the chance for showers and possibly a tstm. Temps on Tue should continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the 60s across much of S CT/Long Island, and in the 70s across the NYC metro area north/west and interior S CT.

Per NBM 50th/75th percentile forecasts, temps early next week have potential to be a few degrees warmer than fcst, possibly upper 70s to mid 80s on Mon, and mid 70s to lower 80s on Tue.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A frontal system will approach overnight and move across today.
Strong high pressure will then build in tonight.

Band of light rain with VFR cond will pass east of the NYC metros early. Concern this afternoon will be for sct convection developing along a cold front moving through during mid to late afternoon. Most likely timing for the NYC metros appears to be 19Z-22Z, an hour earlier north/west and an hour later to the east. Reasonable worst case direct impact at any terminal would be TSRA with G35-40kt and brief MVFR vsby.

Winds are already starting to veer SW at the NYC metros. Winds then become W 10-15G20kt this afternoon ahead of the cold front, and NW 15G20-25kt after fropa late today into this evening. Winds then veer N and diminish somewhat overnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts with multiple frontal boundaries may vary by 1- 2 hours, especially with the shift to WNW.

There is low chance of a gusty thunderstorm along the cold front late this afternoon. Most likely timing appears to be 19Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday through Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers with brief MVFR cond.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The Coastal Waters Forecast with wave component details becomes operational later today.

Winds and gusts on the ocean waters were a few knots lower than forecast early this morning, and updated for current conditions and short term trends. Otherwise, no changes were made to winds and seas.

An increasing, and gusty, southerly flow this morning will reach SCA levels on the ocean waters with building ocean seas also reaching advisory levels. With the passage of a cold front late this afternoon and into early this evening winds shift to the northwest, and with building high pressure, winds and gusts gradually diminish below advisory levels by late tonight. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday morning, and then subside below 5 feet. A SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters, and was extended to 1000 AM EDT Thursday. With a weak pressure gradient later Thursday through Friday, with high pressure in control, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.

Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below advisory criteria. S-SW flow up to 15 kt after a warm frontal passage could briefly push ocean seas up to 4 ft late day Sunday into Sunday evening. Fog may also become possible Sunday night as more humid air traverses colder waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity will be lowering to around 35 percent late this afternoon into early this evening behind a cold front, with west to northwest winds gusting as high as 25 MPH. With falling temperatures this evening relative humidity levels will then begin to increase. With the front there will be little to no wetting rain. Elevated fire spread conditions may briefly be present for NE NJ, portions of the lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and western Long Island.

Minimum relative humidity will be in the upper teens to around 25 percent Thursday, however, winds will be under 10 MPH.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Horton Point
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Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 01:29 AM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:38 PM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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