Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Joliet, IL
March 18, 2024 8:24 PM CDT (01:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM Moonset 3:54 AM |
LMZ742 Expires:202403190300;;966593 Fzus53 Klot 181946 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 246 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>743-190300- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- calumet harbor il to gary in- 246 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest and increasing to 20 to 25 kt overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west in the afternoon. A few gale force gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 246 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>743-190300- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- calumet harbor il to gary in- 246 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
LMZ700
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 190005 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Windy with an elevated danger for the spread of brush fires Tuesday.
- Period of snow Thursday night into Friday morning with potential (60%+ chance) for minor slushy accumulations along/north of I-88.
- Below normal temperatures persist through the weekend.
- Active weather pattern likely (60+% chance) to foster more widespread precipitation late in the weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Through Tuesday:
Scattered flurries will end for west to east this afternoon with some clearing expected late this afternoon into this evening.
Some heavier snow showers across far northwest Indiana may reduce visibilities for a few more hours though no accumulation expected and nothing seen so far on area webcams.
Northwest winds will diminish early this evening and turn westerly, then will steadily increase overnight as directions turn southwest by daybreak, when gusts into the 25-30 mph are possible. Winds will continue to strengthen after sunrise Tuesday morning with a gusts into the 35-40 mph range possible.
Wind directions will turn back westerly by midday and then to the northwest in the afternoon. While the entire day will be windy, gusts may settle back into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon and then are expected to quickly diminish with sunset Tuesday evening. A secondary cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, with another period of northwest winds gusting into the mid 20 mph range and colder air spreading back into the area. After highs in the 50s for most locations Tuesday, lows will drop back into the mid 20s to around 30 by Wednesday morning.
The strong winds and dry conditions will create an elevated fire danger Tuesday. More on this potential in the fire weather section. cms
Tuesday Night through Monday:
Cold air advection following a cold frontal passage Tuesday night will result in a colder and blustery day on Wednesday.
Accordingly, in spite of ample sunshine through the day, temperatures will hold in the 30s to low 40s for afternoon highs.
Similar weather is expected for Thursday in advance of our next approaching weather maker for Thursday night into Friday.
Warm air advection is expected to kick up across the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes Thursday night in advance of a northern stream impulse tracking southeastward towards the Mid- Missouri Valley. This is expected to result in the blossoming of widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of a weak surface low shifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into Friday.
Cold antecedent conditions leading into the development of this precipitation is likely (60%+ chance) to result in it falling primarily as wet snow, especially across approximately the northern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the area (highest snow chances north of I-88). Conversely, more rain then snow is favored farther south, where the column looks to warm above freezing on Friday.
Snow accumulations continue to be plausible with this period of wet snow, with the highest chances currently (60%+ chance of 1"+) looking to be north of I-88. There are still some uncertainties as to where the heaviest snow may fall, so we will continue to monitor this period for any potential travel impacts.
The weekend may end up being largely precipitation free, but cool, as transient surface high pressure ridge temporally builds overhead. However, late in the weekend into early next week there is strong ensemble support for a significant impulse to eject eastward across the central and southern Rockies. A wave such as this would be favorable to support Lee Cyclogenesis and a Colorado or Texas Panhandle type surface low that would be favored to track northward somewhere across the central part of the county Monday or Tuesday of next week. Certainly with this being a week away there are inherently high uncertainties with the overall evolution of this potential system. While this is the case, there is above average confidence that at least parts of the area will experience a period or two of inclement weather into early next week.
KJB
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The only aviation weather concern is a period of strengthening southwesterly winds on Tuesday morning which will eventually become northwesterly in the afternoon.
Winds will trend SW this evening at less than 10 knots, but will gradually increase after midnight as a low-level jet intensifies overhead with intermittent surface gusts around 25 knots expected. Through the mid to late morning on Tuesday, SW winds should further increase, and some occasional gusts to 35 knots are possible. Thereafter, winds will become northwesterly and gusts will gradually diminish through the evening hours. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Carlaw
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
There is an elevated fire danger for Tuesday across all of northern IL and northwest IN.
Strong southwest winds are expected Tuesday morning, possibly gusting into the 35 to 40 mph range. Winds will turn more westerly midday with gusts perhaps diminishing slightly into the 30-35 mph range for Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be starting in the teens Tuesday morning but some increase in low level moisture is expected through the day, though there remains uncertainty for how fast dewpoints may increase through the day.
Based on the most recent data and trends, minimum relative humidity levels are expected to reach 30 to 35 percent, which would be above local red flag warning criteria of 25 percent.
Ten hour fuel moisture is always difficult to forecast and is currently at 10 percent this afternoon at Midewin. It is possible it will dip lower, into the 8-9 percent on Tuesday.
Thus, conditions will be approaching red flag warning criteria, but at this point, we're not expecting to reach local criteria.
Trends will need to be monitored overnight with possible SPS needed Tuesday morning. cms
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Windy with an elevated danger for the spread of brush fires Tuesday.
- Period of snow Thursday night into Friday morning with potential (60%+ chance) for minor slushy accumulations along/north of I-88.
- Below normal temperatures persist through the weekend.
- Active weather pattern likely (60+% chance) to foster more widespread precipitation late in the weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Through Tuesday:
Scattered flurries will end for west to east this afternoon with some clearing expected late this afternoon into this evening.
Some heavier snow showers across far northwest Indiana may reduce visibilities for a few more hours though no accumulation expected and nothing seen so far on area webcams.
Northwest winds will diminish early this evening and turn westerly, then will steadily increase overnight as directions turn southwest by daybreak, when gusts into the 25-30 mph are possible. Winds will continue to strengthen after sunrise Tuesday morning with a gusts into the 35-40 mph range possible.
Wind directions will turn back westerly by midday and then to the northwest in the afternoon. While the entire day will be windy, gusts may settle back into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon and then are expected to quickly diminish with sunset Tuesday evening. A secondary cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, with another period of northwest winds gusting into the mid 20 mph range and colder air spreading back into the area. After highs in the 50s for most locations Tuesday, lows will drop back into the mid 20s to around 30 by Wednesday morning.
The strong winds and dry conditions will create an elevated fire danger Tuesday. More on this potential in the fire weather section. cms
Tuesday Night through Monday:
Cold air advection following a cold frontal passage Tuesday night will result in a colder and blustery day on Wednesday.
Accordingly, in spite of ample sunshine through the day, temperatures will hold in the 30s to low 40s for afternoon highs.
Similar weather is expected for Thursday in advance of our next approaching weather maker for Thursday night into Friday.
Warm air advection is expected to kick up across the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes Thursday night in advance of a northern stream impulse tracking southeastward towards the Mid- Missouri Valley. This is expected to result in the blossoming of widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of a weak surface low shifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into Friday.
Cold antecedent conditions leading into the development of this precipitation is likely (60%+ chance) to result in it falling primarily as wet snow, especially across approximately the northern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the area (highest snow chances north of I-88). Conversely, more rain then snow is favored farther south, where the column looks to warm above freezing on Friday.
Snow accumulations continue to be plausible with this period of wet snow, with the highest chances currently (60%+ chance of 1"+) looking to be north of I-88. There are still some uncertainties as to where the heaviest snow may fall, so we will continue to monitor this period for any potential travel impacts.
The weekend may end up being largely precipitation free, but cool, as transient surface high pressure ridge temporally builds overhead. However, late in the weekend into early next week there is strong ensemble support for a significant impulse to eject eastward across the central and southern Rockies. A wave such as this would be favorable to support Lee Cyclogenesis and a Colorado or Texas Panhandle type surface low that would be favored to track northward somewhere across the central part of the county Monday or Tuesday of next week. Certainly with this being a week away there are inherently high uncertainties with the overall evolution of this potential system. While this is the case, there is above average confidence that at least parts of the area will experience a period or two of inclement weather into early next week.
KJB
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The only aviation weather concern is a period of strengthening southwesterly winds on Tuesday morning which will eventually become northwesterly in the afternoon.
Winds will trend SW this evening at less than 10 knots, but will gradually increase after midnight as a low-level jet intensifies overhead with intermittent surface gusts around 25 knots expected. Through the mid to late morning on Tuesday, SW winds should further increase, and some occasional gusts to 35 knots are possible. Thereafter, winds will become northwesterly and gusts will gradually diminish through the evening hours. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Carlaw
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
There is an elevated fire danger for Tuesday across all of northern IL and northwest IN.
Strong southwest winds are expected Tuesday morning, possibly gusting into the 35 to 40 mph range. Winds will turn more westerly midday with gusts perhaps diminishing slightly into the 30-35 mph range for Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be starting in the teens Tuesday morning but some increase in low level moisture is expected through the day, though there remains uncertainty for how fast dewpoints may increase through the day.
Based on the most recent data and trends, minimum relative humidity levels are expected to reach 30 to 35 percent, which would be above local red flag warning criteria of 25 percent.
Ten hour fuel moisture is always difficult to forecast and is currently at 10 percent this afternoon at Midewin. It is possible it will dip lower, into the 8-9 percent on Tuesday.
Thus, conditions will be approaching red flag warning criteria, but at this point, we're not expecting to reach local criteria.
Trends will need to be monitored overnight with possible SPS needed Tuesday morning. cms
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 36 mi | 55 min | N 6G | 33°F | 16°F | |||
CNII2 | 37 mi | 25 min | WSW 6G | 34°F | 15°F | |||
OKSI2 | 39 mi | 145 min | N 1.9G | 36°F | ||||
CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 41 mi | 35 min | W 15G | 35°F | 17°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KJOT JOLIET RGNL,IL | 1 sm | 29 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 19°F | 55% | 30.12 | |
KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL | 7 sm | 39 min | WSW 10 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 34°F | 18°F | 51% | 30.11 | |
KARR AURORA MUNI,IL | 24 sm | 32 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 30.08 |
Chicago, IL,
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