Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Joliet, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:53 PM CST (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Expires:201901240430;;818557 Fzus53 Klot 232134 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 334 Pm Cst Wed Jan 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-240430- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 334 Pm Cst Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
.heavy freezing spray watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray. Becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Freezing spray through the day. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ742


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Joliet, IL
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location: 41.52, -88.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 232128
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
328 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019

Short term
217 pm cst
through Friday morning...

now that the snow has ended across the area, the main forecast
concerns now shift towards blowing snow over northern il Thursday
afternoon, followed quickly by dangerous cold and wind chills
Thursday night through Friday morning. We have issued a wind chill
watch for much of north central and portions of northeastern il
during this period, due to the increasing likelihood for wind
chills down around 30 below zero.

While tonight will be a rather cold night across the area, as
temperatures (wind chills) fall into the low teens (around, or
just below zero), the dangerous cold is expected by Thursday
night. A strong push of arctic air will occur on Thursday
afternoon following another strong cold front. This front may
also be accompanied, or preceded by a period of snow showers as
an upper level impulse pushes over the area. This could produce a
light dusting before ending. Otherwise, expect northwest winds to
increase over the area in the afternoon, with gusts of 30 to 35
mph expected. These winds may lead to some areas of blowing and
drifting snow over north central il, where fresh accumulating snow
resides. While this could cause some minor travel impacts, we
have opted to hold off on a winter weather advisory at this time.

Instead, we focus on the dangerous combination of very cold
temperatures and gusty winds for Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Actual temperatures will drop into the single digits
area-wide by mid Thursday evening, then bottom out Friday morning
a couple of degrees below zero in the east, to the low teens below
zero in the west. These very cold temperatures combined with
northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, will result in wind chills area-wide
in excess of 20 below zero. However, the coldest wind chills down
around 30 below are expected over much of north central and
portions of northeastern il. For these areas we have issued a wind
chill watch. Elsewhere, a wind chill advisory was issued given
high confidence in attaining advisory criteria wind chills.

Kjb

Long term
322 pm cst
Friday afternoon through Wednesday...

there are multiple winter concerns in a very cold and active
pattern that will be in place likely through next work week.

First on the docket is light snow accums a fast moving clipper
system Friday afternoon into Friday evening and possibly part of
the overnight for portions of the area. Track of this low
amplitude feature is a bit up in the air, but with solid enough
agreement between GFS nam ECMWF and GFS and ECMWF ensembles,
bumped up pops to mid to high chance and will need to further
increase these if trends continue. Current consensus path of
surface low reflection would potentially favor swath in portions
of western to southern CWA for higher snow accumulations of up to
2", with up to an inch or so elsewhere (except maybe only a
dusting to half inch far north). Forecast soundings indicate a
very deep dgz, and with bitterly cold surface temps, would expect
a high ratio fluffy snow, especially where lift is best aligned
within the dgz. Timing of this clipper is problematic as it will
likely impact the Friday evening rush. After the brutally cold
start to Friday, highs will likely only top out between 0 and 10,
keeping wind chills below zero throughout the day.

If skies clear out Friday night, then temperatures could certainly
tank more than forecast in favored cold spots given that winds
will drop off as high pressure overspreads the region. As it
stands, there's some uncertainty in how much cloud cover will
linger behind the clipper. On Saturday, the operational ecmwf
with some support from its ensembles is more excited with another
weak clipper wave than the rest of the guidance. May need to add
some pops for this period, but for now added mention of flurries,
as there will be sufficient forcing for at least flurries given
very cold air mass with highs in high single digits and teens.

Lower level thermal gradient will start to tighten across the
region on Sunday as tropospheric polar vortex to north and
troughing over the region slides eastward. A stationary front
looks to be draped somewhere near or over southern cwa, so light
snow could break out over portions of the area.

The timeframe of highest concern for potentially significant (6"+)
snow accumulations is Sunday night through Monday. Models and
ensembles are in unusually good agreement this far out in a strong
clipper pacific hybrid type system affecting the region. This
system will have a very impressive thermal gradient baroclinic
zone to work with, along with possibly up to 150-200% of typical
pwat for late january, also eye-opening considering the cold
antecedent air mass. Ultimately the track of the system will
dictate who gets how much snow, but felt comfortable with the
categorical pops in blended guidance given strong guidance
agreement. A somewhat northward displaced track could even
introduce p-type concerns into portions of the area considering
aforementioned thermal gradient over the region, with a low track
over northern il favoring wisconsin for highest snowfall. It also
appears that it will become windy breezy with the snow, so
blowing drifting snow could become an issue. We will certainly be
watching this period closely.

Finally, in the wake of the potential Sunday night-Monday snow
event, the concern is what could be a brutally cold shot of arctic
air in the middle of next work week. While the GFS suite of
guidance is cold, the ECMWF ensemble suite is particularly
concerning for extreme record cold. To highlight this, the
ensemble mean of 51 member european ensemble is indicating 850 mb
temperature anomalies of 20+ degrees celsius below normal next
Wednesday. If a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex can move
over the region as shown on the 12z operational ecmwf, that would
help maximize how cold it gets. Still plenty of time for changes
in this period, but even less cold GFS suite would favor some type
of wind chill headlines next Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

Castro

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

radar imagery shows the back edge of snow exiting northeast into
lake michigan and out of the terminals right around the top of the
18z hour. Timing this radar precluded mention of any remaining
precipitation in the TAF terminals, though there may be a stray
flurry for the first half hour of 18z. The center of the surface
low will continue to race off to the northeast and this departure
has allowed ifr ceilings to quickly improve to MVFR. Northwest
winds will gust to near 20kt this afternoon. Remnant moisture
beneath the inversion will keep a 2500 ft ceiling in place for
much of the period. Guidance does suggest a brief time of clearing
in the 05-11z range, but ceilings quickly drop back into the MVFR
category. Omitted the clearing in the TAF for simplicity.

Mm

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Wind chill advisory... Ilz013-ilz014-ilz021-ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-
ilz033-ilz039... 6 pm Thursday to noon Friday.

Wind chill watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz019-ilz020... 6 pm Thursday to noon Friday.

In... Wind chill advisory... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019... 6 pm
Thursday to noon Friday.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray watch... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-
lmz745... 6 pm Thursday to 9 pm Friday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 9 pm Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... Noon Thursday to 9
am Friday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 4 am Thursday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... Noon Thursday to 3
pm Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 36 mi53 min W 8 G 14 26°F 1006.6 hPa (+1.8)24°F
JAKI2 36 mi113 min WNW 6 G 9.9 27°F
CNII2 37 mi23 min WNW 8.9 G 16 25°F 21°F
FSTI2 42 mi113 min NW 16 25°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 54 mi73 min WNW 8 G 8.9 28°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Joliet Regional Airport, IL1 mi78 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast25°F20°F84%1007.8 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL7 mi78 minNW 12 G 1610.00 miOvercast24°F20°F87%1007.4 hPa
Morris Muni-James R Washburn Field Airport, IL15 mi78 minWNW 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast23°F18°F83%1008.1 hPa
Aurora Municipal Airport, IL24 mi2 hrsWNW 14 G 245.00 miFog/Mist22°F18°F85%1008 hPa

Wind History from JOT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S4S4S5S5S5S5S5S5S5CalmSE4CalmNE5CalmCalmN6N6NW8NW8W9
G15
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1 day agoSE8SE12
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2 days agoN7N5NW4NW3N7N7N8N7N5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE8SE12SE7SE10
G15
SE11SE10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.