Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Joliet, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:06PM Friday October 19, 2018 8:04 AM CDT (13:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 309 Am Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt this morning. Rain showers likely this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest 15 to 25 kt this evening. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest gales to 35 kt by late morning. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ742 Expires:201810191500;;407773 FZUS53 KLOT 190809 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 309 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-191500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Joliet, IL
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location: 41.52, -88.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 191138
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
638 am cdt Fri oct 19 2018

Short term
306 am cdt
today through Saturday night...

main short term forecast concerns are chances of showers today
and again Saturday with a pair of cold fronts, in addition with
windy conditions with falling temps Saturday. Parts of northwest
and north central indiana will likely see lake effect precip later
Saturday Saturday night.

Low pressure was analyzed north of the great lakes over ontario
early this morning, with a cold front trailing southwest across
northern and central high plains. This cold front will move east
toward the region today, in association with a mid-level short
wave trough emerging from the plains. 00z raobs from ilx and dvn
last evening depicted a deep layer of fairly dry air across the
local area, though upstream soundings from top sgf did indicate
mid-level moisture which was streaming northeastward ahead of the
approaching front. Forecast soundings do depict saturating mid-
levels this morning mid-day, as isentropic upglide and large scale
forcing increase ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. This
will likely support development of rain showers across the region
today, though with amounts of less then a tenth of an inch
expected. Isentropic progs from the 300-315 k levels then depict
fairly strong downglide and drying developing by evening,
suggesting a quick end to precip from west to east. Modestly tight
pressure gradient will support breezy southwest winds during the
day with gusts around 25 mph ahead of the front, with temps
generally in the mid-50s.

A stronger short wave is progged to dig south from manitoba
tonight, amplifying an upper trough across the eastern conus, and
bringing a surge of colder air behind a secondary cold front which
will push across the CWA Saturday morning. Strong mid-level
height falls, strong pdva and strong low level convergence should
support a period of showers along ahead of the front Saturday
morning mid-day, before strong drying and subsidence sets in
behind the front during the afternoon, ending precip and eroding
cloud cover. Strong northwest winds gusting to 40 mph at times
will likely result in falling temps through the afternoon, after
morning highs in the 40s north and low-mid 50s far south. Surface
high pressure then builds quickly south through the missouri
valley Saturday night, with dry and colder air spreading across
the midwest. Winds should eventually decouple enough on the
eastern periphery of the surface ridge, which along with mainly
clear skies should produce a hard freeze (mid-upper 20s) over the
majority of the forecast area by sunrise Sunday morning. The
exception may be in the core of the chicago urban heat island, and
over in northwest indiana near lake michigan. Cold air flowing
over the still relatively mild lake waters will set up the
likelihood of some lake effect into Saturday night, with
respectable delta-ts of 20c and inversion heights around 10 kft.

Lower levels downwind of the lake should remain warm enough to
support rain, with the northwest fetch favoring mainly northeast
porter county and areas to the east.

Ratzer

Long term
306 am cdt
Sunday through Thursday...

the upper pattern remains highly amplified through the extended
period, with long wave troughing across eastern north america or
just off shore, into the middle of next week. Medium range
guidance in in pretty good agreement through about Tuesday, before
developing some spread in the days 5-7 period.

Saturdays strong digging short wave trough is moving off the mid-
atlantic coast by Sunday morning, with a broad area of surface
high pressure spreading through the ohio valley in its wake. Low
level winds turn west-southwesterly as the northern periphery of
the surface ridge works east of the area, with resulting modest
warm advection allowing temps to rebound to near around 50 degrees
by afternoon after a chilly morning start. Forecast soundings
indicate dry profiles, with plentiful sunshine expected, and light
southwest low level winds continue Sunday night helping keep mins
at or above freezing overnight.

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement in depiction of a
short wave digging southeast from the canadian prairie provinces
on Monday, and propagating across the great lakes by evening.

Associated surface low pressure passes well to the northeast of
the area, though a trailing cold front pushes into northern il
during the afternoon, and completes its transit of the local
forecast area through the evening. A narrow ribbon of low level
moisture spreads into the area ahead of the front, though forecast
soundings indicate this is mainly limited to the boundary layer
and maintain considerable dry air aloft supporting a dry cold
fropa. Surface high pressure then builds in across the upper
midwest and western great lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Highs on Monday should warm well into the mid-upper 50s in the
warm sector ahead of the cold front, and potentially to the 60
degree mark (near normal!) in spots especially across the
south southeast parts of the CWA where the front is not expected
to arrive until after sunset. Tuesday doesn't look too much cooler
despite the frontal passage, with the bulk of the colder air only
glancing the area. Tuesday and Wednesday both look to continue
the dry trend, with surface high pressure in the area and highs in
the low-mid 50s.

As mentioned above, medium-range guidance shows a little more
spread by the end of the period. ECMWF notably is a little quicker
to move the sprawling surface high off to the east Wednesday
night into Thursday, and tries to bring some warm advection precip
into the mississippi valley late Wednesday night and Thursday in
association with a short wave which damps quickly into the upper
ridge. These differences are of little impact however, with other
sensible weather elements otherwise pretty similar between the
guidance at this distance.

Ratzer

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

638 am... Primary forecast concern this period are the winds today
and again Saturday. Additional forecast concerns include a chance
of showers today and Saturday and MVFR CIGS this afternoon into
this evening.

Southwest winds will steadily increase this morning with gusts in
the mid 20kt range expected into early this evening. The first of
two cold fronts will move across the area early this evening
shifting winds to the west northwest with speeds gusts diminishing
this evening. A second and stronger cold front will move across
the area Saturday morning. This front will shift winds to the
north northwest with speeds increasing into the 20-25kt range and
gusts into the 30-35kt range... Toward the end of the 30 hour
ord mdw tafs.

There is a chance of showers from late morning through mid
afternoon today as a weak upper wave moves across the area. Some
areas may stay dry and there will likely be quite a bit of virga.

Clouds will gradually lower as this wave approaches and then after
the showers shift east of the terminals... A period of MVFR CIGS is
possible. Clouds will eventually clear with skc likely overnight.

There will be another chance of showers Saturday morning with the
second cold front moving through the area. Cms

Marine
330 am... A strong gradient will develop across the area today as
high pressure moves southeast and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Southwest winds will steadily increase after sunrise
this morning with gusts to 30kts expected into early this evening.

Wind directions will slowly turn more westerly by sunset and then
the cold front will shift winds northwest this evening. Speeds
will diminish into the 15-25kt range overnight with winds then
turning back westerly by Saturday morning.

Another stronger cold front will move across the area Saturday
morning shifting winds northwest by midday Saturday. A tight
gradient combined with much colder air spreading across the region
will allow northwest gales 35-40kt to develop. These strong winds
will begin to diminish by late afternoon with speeds slowly
relaxing under 30kts Saturday evening. High pressure will move
from the northern plains Saturday to the ohio valley Sunday which
will allow winds to turn back southwesterly on Sunday. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 10 am Saturday.

Gale watch... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 10 am
Saturday to 10 pm Saturday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 10 pm Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JAKI2 36 mi125 min SW 6 G 8.9 48°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 36 mi35 min SSW 8 G 9.9 48°F 1020.5 hPa34°F
CNII2 37 mi20 min SSW 7 G 8.9 48°F 30°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 41 mi35 min SSW 20 G 24 50°F 33°F
FSTI2 42 mi125 min SW 8.9 48°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 54 mi25 min SSW 8.9 G 11 47°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Joliet Regional Airport, IL1 mi70 minSSW 710.00 miFair47°F34°F64%1021.3 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL7 mi70 minSSW 810.00 miFair45°F35°F69%1021.3 hPa
Morris Muni-James R Washburn Field Airport, IL15 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miFair40°F35°F82%1021.7 hPa
Aurora Municipal Airport, IL24 mi73 minSSW 810.00 miFair44°F33°F65%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from JOT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW5SW7SW6SW5W3S5SW5SW5S3S3SW3SW3CalmS3S4CalmCalmS3S5SW4S3SW5
1 day agoW7NW9
G15
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NW6NW8W7NW7
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NW8NW8NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW6SW7SW12
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SW8SW6SW4SW5SW8W5SW4W5W4W4W5W5W7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.