Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 12:48 AM   Moonset 9:20 AM

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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 355 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - West winds 10 knots or less. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 291106 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 706 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A surface ridge extends into the region today, stretching northwest from the Carolina coast. A cold front will move across the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will return to the area on Wednesday. A low pressure system will move through the Midwest on Thursday and extend a warm front into the region with a cold front moving through on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Rain of rain is consolidating in a SSW-NNE motion across eastern Illinois and western Indiana this morning. Some weakening in this rain is expected over the next several hours but areas of showers and some thunder will begin entering the forecast area just afternoon. Have tightened up the PoPs before 2 PM to reflect a narrowed band of precipitation entering the region.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure extending northwest from the Carolinas and a supporting upper ridge has allowed for a bubble of dry, warm air across the region. These features will allow for dry conditions for the first part of the day, along with another well above normal day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
High temperature records across the region are a bit lower and some record highs may be possible this afternoon.

A negatively tilted upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move east and begin pushing this ridge away from the region today. A vorticity maximum within the flow will be coincident with a surface cold front that will move through the Great Lakes region. Convection should develop ahead of these features with initial rain and possible storms reaching Northwest Ohio later this afternoon into the evening. Overall coverage of showers and storms will be scattered as the main forcing will be fighting against the upper ridge that has sustained drier weather over the last 24 hours. However, another push of energy into the region from the southwest tonight should allow for coverage to increase and have categorical PoPs traversing across the forecast area. There is enough instability for thunderstorms; however, the better jet energy is well north or south of the local forecast area and do not expect organization of storms into a strong or severe threat. The surface front will move across the forecast area on Tuesday morning and rain chances will diminish with this feature. Temperatures on Tuesday will be tapered with the front with 70s for highs.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weak cold front will have pushed through the area with some lingering rain showers remaining over far northeastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early Tuesday evening. An area of high pressure at the surface will build over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Height levels will rise as an upper level ridge moves over the region Wednesday into Thursday. We will see a very nice first couple of days of May on Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds from south or southwest, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s areawide. With light low level flow by Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, there may be a weak lake breeze that comes inland off the lakeshore later in the day to cool temperatures a bit. The overall weather message for the middle of the week is above average temperatures and very nice weather.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weather will turn a little more unsettled by the end of the week. An upper level trough will swing through the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will push through the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region Friday.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms likely become likely Friday afternoon into the late evening. We will see one more very warm day ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon with temperatures back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another area of high pressure will build back into the region Saturday through the first part of Sunday with fair weather conditions. High temperatures this weekend will be slightly cooler but still above average in the lower to middle 70s. A larger upper level trough will develop and dig across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Monday to bring another round of unsettled weather with scattered rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Conditions will be VFR across the area over the next several hours with high pressure in place from the southeast and just some miscellaneous mid and high level clouds across the region.
A cold front will approach the region from the west today and bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. The timing for showers and storms to get into the NW OH terminals will be just after 18z but the intensity of the rain presently in Illinois and Indiana will wane a bit before it gets to KTOL and KFDY.
Rain coverage should increase again and thunder will be present later this evening and have thunder and rain moving through all of the terminals this evening and tonight. Rain will linger into the night and lower ceilings will enter behind the rain with the front. There could be some MVFR ceilings and some guidance elements hint at possible IFR, but have not gone as pessimistic with that yet. Winds will be south to start and veering slightly to the southwest with some gusts this afternoon. There will be a modified lake breeze into KERI and it will get close to KCLE.
Winds will shift further to the west with the frontal passage tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday.
Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
Southwest winds will again increase once again today 10-15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will track across Lake Erie late tonight into Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Before the front arrive, there could be a chance for a weak lake breeze to develop along the central and eastern lakeshore this afternoon. After the frontal passage, westerly winds at 5-10 knots will follow through Tuesday night. High pressure builds back over the lake on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Thursday. Southwesterly flow of 5-10 knots is expected Wednesday through Thursday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front will move eastward across the lake late Friday night. High pressure will build back over Lake Erie on Saturday with light westerly winds. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLIMATE
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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