Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Curtice, OH
May 16, 2024 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 1:08 PM Moonset 2:13 AM |
LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 331 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night - East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 161930 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 330 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure departs to the east this evening before another low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and Saturday.
Brief high pressure builds across the area Saturday night through Monday before another low pressure system impacts the region midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough moves across the northern Great Lakes while a separate upper-level trough over the southern Plains moves eastward south of our forecast area. Forcing from both of these troughs will result in showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west late tonight through Friday morning. This should be a sizable swath of soaking rain, so have increased PoPs to 60-70%. Showers linger but become more scattered during the day on Friday. PoPs gradually decrease from the north Friday evening/night.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A very weak closed/cut-off low aloft and associated weak surface reflection will be moving across the northern Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday evening. Sufficient low-level moisture will remain on Saturday for weak to modest, uncapped instability to develop with daytime heating. There will be some forcing from the weak closed low, though ultimately feel shower / storm development will mainly be driven by subtle low-level convergence zones, such as the lake breeze and weak hilltop convergence. This all adds up to most of the area being highlighted for a 30-50% "chance" of showers / storms Saturday afternoon and early evening, with greatest potential across the hillier terrain from the Mid Ohio region points east-northeast across interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with relatively lower chances towards Toledo and especially over the lake. There is not expected to be enough shear or instability for severe weather on Saturday, though one or two stronger pulse storms may become capable of small hail or gusty winds. Slow cell motions could lead to locally heavy downpours but with a low flood concern overall.
Outside of the isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday partly sunny skies are expected. Shower and thunder chances will exit to the southeast Saturday night, with a dry Sunday and Sunday night expected as a shortwave ridge aloft and weak high pressure at the surface slide through the region, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies for Sunday. Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s, with around 80 possible along I-75 if clouds / rain aren't more widespread than expected. Lows will generally dip into the 50s Saturday night, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern OH and northwestern PA to near 60 along/west of I-71.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge will build over the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that will enter and cross through the region on Wednesday. This will lead to a very warm first half of next week, with 80s expected to be common for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be knocked back into the 70s for highs on Thursday behind the front.
Confidence is increasing that much of the Monday and Monday night periods will remain dry, as ridging aloft will act to cap the region with forcing still well off to the west. It is possible that upstream convection spreads into Northwest Ohio later Monday night, though it will be moving into a dry and stable airmass and outrunning any forcing closer to the front to the west. Overall POPs have trended down over the last couple of cycles from Monday and Monday night and are rather minimal now. The front and main upper trough will still be to our west on Tuesday, though a more moist and unstable airmass combined with the main upper ridge axis beginning to shift east may yield greater potential for showers and thunder Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially if organized activity can develop upstream and move in. Confidence in any rain potential Tuesday and Tuesday evening is still low and it is possible we remain mainly dry. Confidence increases that at least scattered showers / storms will spread in from the west late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front and upper trough finally move into and across the region. Thursday should trend mainly dry. Some more organized thunderstorms could be possible along or ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the timing of the front may prove pivotal to any severe weather potential locally.
AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR is observed areawide, though isolated MVFR ceilings may be possible for next hour or two in parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms moves in from the west tonight, moving east across the area through Friday morning. This will likely produce at least MVFR visibilities and ceilings areawide with pockets of IFR conditions. Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon on Friday.
Winds will generally be light and variable, except for KCLE and KERI when a lake breeze develops this afternoon and briefly increase winds to 5-10 knots from the north-northeast. South to southwest winds of 7-9 knots develops Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.
MARINE
Winds will remain generally easterly tonight before shifting south- southeast on Friday as a warm front lifts north of Lake Erie. Winds will turn east-northeast Saturday and Saturday night as weak low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley, with winds remaining generally east-northeast through Sunday. Winds will turn more southerly Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front taking shape well to our west, with this front expected to cross the lake on Wednesday. Winds and waves will remain mild and below headline criteria through early next week. Winds and waves may become a bit more elevated as the front moves through on Wednesday, though confidence is low that far out. A few thunderstorms are possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning. There will be a limited risk of storms over the lake Friday afternoon and evening and again Saturday afternoon (greater risk inland). Higher potential for thunderstorms over the lake may arrive along or just ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 330 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure departs to the east this evening before another low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and Saturday.
Brief high pressure builds across the area Saturday night through Monday before another low pressure system impacts the region midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough moves across the northern Great Lakes while a separate upper-level trough over the southern Plains moves eastward south of our forecast area. Forcing from both of these troughs will result in showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west late tonight through Friday morning. This should be a sizable swath of soaking rain, so have increased PoPs to 60-70%. Showers linger but become more scattered during the day on Friday. PoPs gradually decrease from the north Friday evening/night.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A very weak closed/cut-off low aloft and associated weak surface reflection will be moving across the northern Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday evening. Sufficient low-level moisture will remain on Saturday for weak to modest, uncapped instability to develop with daytime heating. There will be some forcing from the weak closed low, though ultimately feel shower / storm development will mainly be driven by subtle low-level convergence zones, such as the lake breeze and weak hilltop convergence. This all adds up to most of the area being highlighted for a 30-50% "chance" of showers / storms Saturday afternoon and early evening, with greatest potential across the hillier terrain from the Mid Ohio region points east-northeast across interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with relatively lower chances towards Toledo and especially over the lake. There is not expected to be enough shear or instability for severe weather on Saturday, though one or two stronger pulse storms may become capable of small hail or gusty winds. Slow cell motions could lead to locally heavy downpours but with a low flood concern overall.
Outside of the isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday partly sunny skies are expected. Shower and thunder chances will exit to the southeast Saturday night, with a dry Sunday and Sunday night expected as a shortwave ridge aloft and weak high pressure at the surface slide through the region, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies for Sunday. Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s, with around 80 possible along I-75 if clouds / rain aren't more widespread than expected. Lows will generally dip into the 50s Saturday night, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern OH and northwestern PA to near 60 along/west of I-71.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge will build over the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that will enter and cross through the region on Wednesday. This will lead to a very warm first half of next week, with 80s expected to be common for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be knocked back into the 70s for highs on Thursday behind the front.
Confidence is increasing that much of the Monday and Monday night periods will remain dry, as ridging aloft will act to cap the region with forcing still well off to the west. It is possible that upstream convection spreads into Northwest Ohio later Monday night, though it will be moving into a dry and stable airmass and outrunning any forcing closer to the front to the west. Overall POPs have trended down over the last couple of cycles from Monday and Monday night and are rather minimal now. The front and main upper trough will still be to our west on Tuesday, though a more moist and unstable airmass combined with the main upper ridge axis beginning to shift east may yield greater potential for showers and thunder Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially if organized activity can develop upstream and move in. Confidence in any rain potential Tuesday and Tuesday evening is still low and it is possible we remain mainly dry. Confidence increases that at least scattered showers / storms will spread in from the west late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front and upper trough finally move into and across the region. Thursday should trend mainly dry. Some more organized thunderstorms could be possible along or ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the timing of the front may prove pivotal to any severe weather potential locally.
AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR is observed areawide, though isolated MVFR ceilings may be possible for next hour or two in parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms moves in from the west tonight, moving east across the area through Friday morning. This will likely produce at least MVFR visibilities and ceilings areawide with pockets of IFR conditions. Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon on Friday.
Winds will generally be light and variable, except for KCLE and KERI when a lake breeze develops this afternoon and briefly increase winds to 5-10 knots from the north-northeast. South to southwest winds of 7-9 knots develops Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.
MARINE
Winds will remain generally easterly tonight before shifting south- southeast on Friday as a warm front lifts north of Lake Erie. Winds will turn east-northeast Saturday and Saturday night as weak low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley, with winds remaining generally east-northeast through Sunday. Winds will turn more southerly Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front taking shape well to our west, with this front expected to cross the lake on Wednesday. Winds and waves will remain mild and below headline criteria through early next week. Winds and waves may become a bit more elevated as the front moves through on Wednesday, though confidence is low that far out. A few thunderstorms are possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning. There will be a limited risk of storms over the lake Friday afternoon and evening and again Saturday afternoon (greater risk inland). Higher potential for thunderstorms over the lake may arrive along or just ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH | 8 mi | 53 min | E 8.9G | 70°F | 29.79 | 59°F | ||
| THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 12 mi | 41 min | ESE 14G | 62°F | 29.82 | 59°F | ||
| CMPO1 | 19 mi | 131 min | E 11G | 67°F | ||||
| SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH | 26 mi | 41 min | E 8G | 62°F | 29.84 | |||
| MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH | 33 mi | 53 min | ESE 7G | 63°F | 29.82 | 53°F | ||
| HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH | 45 mi | 41 min | E 8.9G | 63°F | 29.80 | |||
| 45203 | 47 mi | 31 min | NE 9.7G | 63°F | 64°F | 1 ft | 60°F | |
| OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH | 48 mi | 116 min | NE 4.1 | 64°F | 29.86 | 59°F | ||
| 45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH | 49 mi | 41 min | E 5.8G | 59°F | 59°F | 29.85 | 57°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTDZ TOLEDO EXECUTIVE,OH | 12 sm | 47 min | ESE 12G16 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 59°F | 57% | 29.83 | |
| KDUH TOLEDO SUBURBAN,MI | 18 sm | 25 min | E 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 55°F | 57% | 29.82 | |
| KTTF CUSTER,MI | 19 sm | 25 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 55°F | 68% | 29.83 |
Cleveland, OH,
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