Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:40 AM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1057 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 47 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 270501 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 101 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm. 80 degrees will be possible both weekend days.

- Periodic chances for rain and storms are expected between this afternoon and next week with tonight and Monday having the greatest chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

In a decoupling jet scenario with the Pacific jet taking over, an upper low deepens and drifts northeast from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains between this afternoon and Saturday. During this time, the warm front pushes through the area later this afternoon and tonight. Saturation appears fairly quick this afternoon and evening on model time-sections despite Td depressions between 20 and 30F. It is interesting to see much of the omega leaning westward with much of the large ascent and mid level vorticity staying there as well. It isn't until later tonight/early Saturday that the large ascent shifts eastward likely meaning rainfall will be focused westward as well. These leans are noticeable on the PWAT moisture content as well, as to where the maximums lie. Despite the 1 to 3 SDs above normal, it still appears the lack of instability and forcing tonight point to lesser QPF output, which appear to stay less than 0.25 aside from counties west of IN-31 where closer to 0.5" may be more in reach.

For the weekend, it appears there will be an opportunity to tap into effective shear during the morning hours, and with instability available, severe weather is possible. The main threat with that appears to strong winds and perhaps a stray spin up. Hail appears to be a lesser threat given the moist low levels during this time.
Another threat for thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, but the shear appears to be a little bit more sporadic and there's some question about how much instability might be left over at that point. We do actually get 60 degree dew points into the area during the afternoon and low level temperatures surpass the teens Celsius.
With some mixing, highs will be able to get into the 70s allowing for a warm day. Sunday has some instability around and a weak area of vorticity may be able to tap into it to create some thunderstorms during the morning. But dry air follows allowing for a rain-free afternoon. 70s and perhaps 80 degree highs will be in play for Sunday.

A cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. There is some shear to work with, although it appears to diminish by Monday morning. The moisture axis appears to stall out on Monday and may be able to refire in the I-69 corridor on east during the afternoon. Initial model output indicates some shear and instability will be available for showers and storms as well.

Some drying out appears likely for Tuesday morning behind the cold front. The ECMWF shows a dry solution as opposed to GFS/GEM which hold on to some precipitation. Perhaps they are keying into a warm front-like feature that rises north during the afternoon to form showers. Based on its history in these events, will lean towards the ECMWF at least with messaging. More confidence can be had with precipitation occurring in the area later Tuesday night as a shortwave moving through in the flow coincides with a cold front passage. Thunderstorms are also possible with both instability and shear present to be tapped into. It then appears that a break in the unsettled weather can be forecast after a cold front moves through Thursday night. Temperatures in the 70s will still continue through this period with Friday having a good chance to return to cooler temperatures. Once again, NBM probability of 1 inch in 24 hours is below 20 percent in any one period through this unsettled time frame indicating its sporadic nature and that its floor is low as far as QPF is concerned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After one round of rain yesterday evening, another round is on its way in as seen on local radar. Showers (and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder) alongside increased low level jet winds surge in the 06Z-12Z timeframe.
This will bring increased southerly winds with gusts near 25 to 35 kts at the surface through the day, but especially before 18Z.
Have kept the previous mentions of LLWS. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected through the TAF forecast period. There may be a brief few hours of VFR ceilings this late this morning/early afternoon, before ceilings drop again this evening as vicinity showers become possible once again.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.

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