Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 12:14 AM CDT (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1028 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 66 degrees...and 69 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201706281045;;930221 FZUS53 KIWX 280228 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1028 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-281045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kiwx 272338
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
738 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 716 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
high pressure over the ohio valley will move east tonight, with
southerly winds behind it resulting in breezy and warmer
conditions across our area tomorrow. The strong south winds will
cause high waves and dangerous swimming conditions along western
michigan beaches Wednesday. A cold front will drop slowly
southeast across the midwest late this week, likely causing
showers and thunderstorms in our area, with heavy rainfall and
severe storms possible.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 413 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
an upper level ridge remains entrenched over the region through the
rest of today into tonight, with surface high pressure below. The
pressure gradient tightens as we creep into Wednesday, as sfc low
pressure over the dakotas drifts eastward into minnesota wisconsin
with a shortwave aloft. This feature will be our next weather maker.

For tonight, expect gradually increasing cloud cover as the system
nears from the west. Lows will drop into the upper 40's and 50's.

Due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the low, we'll see
winds become southerly and increase to roughly 15-25 mph on
Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph not out of the question Wednesday
afternoon. This will lead to choppy wave conditions on lake
michigan, where a small craft advisory will be in place, along with
a hazardous swimming conditions at area beaches.

The question then turns to whether or not we'll see any
precipitation Wednesday. Most of the higher resolution models this
afternoon are pointing towards a dry afternoon, though the GFS and
consensus blends suggest chances in our far west as the system
nears. I am skeptical of our chances earlier in the day-given that
the upper level ridge remains strongly entrenched over our area.

As the negatively tilted trough arrives and begins to erode the
western edges of the ridge late Wednesday afternoon evening-we
could see some precipitation-though per 850-500 mb the best
forcing is further north and west of our cwa. Additionally, better
moisture transport instability of around 500 j kg doesn't arrive
until after 21z-with best moisture after 3z. Thus have likely
showers storms mainly after the 3z time frame.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 413 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
Wednesday night into Thursday we'll have the frontal boundary swing
through and stall out across the northwestern cwa, providing a
source of lift through Friday when a second low swings a stronger
cold front through. This will bring us chances for strong to severe
storms, particularly Thursday night into Friday. Heavy rain will
also be a concern, with warm cloud layers as deep as 13kft, and
pwats up to 150 to 175 percent of normal. Instability ranges from
around 500 j kg (sfc cape) to 1500 j kg during the Thursday
afternoon and Friday time frame, with steeper mid-level lapse rates
on Friday afternoon of around 7c km. 0-6 km shear looks to be around
30-40 knots in the northwestern part of our forecast area, but in
the east probably only around 20-30 knots. SPC has our forecast area
in a slight risk for Thursday night into Friday. Given the above, i
kept the likely pops from the previous forecast. It will be
interesting to see how the ingredients come together for severe
potential, with confidence still not the greatest given diverging
model solutions it being further out still. Temperature wise,
we'll back to warm and humid, with highs in the upper 70's and
80's. There are a few chances for showers storms into next
weekend, but confidence is lower at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 716 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
vfr conditions should cont across the area through this taf
period. CU along lake shadow convergence zone through fwa
expected to dissipate with loss of heating this eve. Upr level
ridge will cross NRN in overnight and Wed with associated
subsidence limiting cloudiness. A shrtwv lifting NE from the
central plains to the upr midwest will cause convection to our
w-nw, with some debris cloudiness prbly spreading across NRN in
during the day wed. Strong southerly flow to the SE of this system
will combine with diurnal heating to cause winds to gust to
around 25kt at the terminals wed.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... Beach hazards statement from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Jt
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Jt
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi25 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 64°F 44°F
45170 5 mi25 min SSE 9.7 G 12 65°F 66°F1 ft52°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi35 min S 8 G 9.9 66°F 1018.3 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi25 min S 12 G 14 67°F 69°F1 ft1018 hPa50°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 7 67°F 1017.1 hPa48°F
JAKI2 36 mi135 min SSW 2.9 68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi25 min S 11 G 11 68°F 52°F
CNII2 39 mi15 min 66°F
45177 40 mi135 min 64°F
OKSI2 41 mi135 min Calm 71°F
FSTI2 44 mi135 min S 4.1 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
W4
W2
W2
W2
SW2
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW5
W3
G8
W3
G9
NW6
G9
NE7
E7
E7
G10
NE8
G11
E8
G11
E9
G12
NE7
G11
E8
G11
E8
G11
S2
S3
S6
1 day
ago
W10
G15
W2
S4
SW3
SW4
SW3
SW4
SW3
G6
W3
G6
W3
G7
SW10
G17
W6
G13
W7
G11
SW6
G12
W9
G24
W9
G17
NW13
G17
NW11
G17
NW5
G9
N11
G14
NW10
G15
NW5
G10
NW9
G12
NW4
G7
2 days
ago
W3
SW4
G8
SW7
G13
W5
G11
W4
G12
W6
G15
W9
G17
W8
G16
W5
G11
W6
G12
W6
G13
SW8
G12
W5
G14
SW9
G15
W8
G14
W7
G13
W7
G13
W3
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi20 minSSE 310.00 miFair61°F44°F55%1018.3 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi19 minS 310.00 miFair61°F50°F67%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrNW5N7N6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmSW4W5NW9
G14
W8W5N6N4N5E4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW6
G15
NW7NW6
G14
W4SW5S3SW4SW5W8W9W10
G14
W10
G16
NW8W9
G14
N8N11
G14
N8N11
G16
N12
G18
N5N7N5NW4NW4
2 days agoCalmS3SW4SW4W10W7W6W9
G15
W10
G15
W8
G16
W12
G19
NW14
G20
W12
G19
W9
G17
W10
G16
W8W9
G15
W5W6W6W8W9
G14
NW6NW8
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.