Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:59PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 6:38 PM CDT (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:27PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 323 Pm Est Mon Jan 28 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..West wind 20 to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Freezing spray. Occasional snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet.
Tuesday..West wind to 30 knots. A few gusts to 35 knot gales. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Slight chance of snow showers in the morning, then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind to 30 knots. A few gusts to 35 knot gales. Chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Wednesday..West wind to 30 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet in the afternoon. The water temperature off michigan city is 32 degrees...and 33 degrees off st. Joseph. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshiwx) issuance for the season due to increasing ice coverage and limited traffic on the nearshore waters. The nearshore marine forecast will be issued again by march 1st, 2019, or earlier if conditions warrant.
LMZ046 Expires:201901290530;;066234 FZUS53 KIWX 282023 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 323 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-290530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 192302
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
702 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 337 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
quiet and dry tonight before light rain moves in on Wednesday.

Rain ends Wednesday evening with dry conditions then expected
through Saturday night. A series of weak fronts are expected to
move across the area over the next week and unfortunately will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal through Saturday.

High temperatures on Sunday will likely reach the 50s but this
warmth is looking short lived as a stronger cold front brings
temperatures back down below normal on Monday.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 337 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
rain on Wednesday remains the short term issue at hand. Quiet and
dry for most of tonight as high pressure continues to slide east.

Low level jet will begin to intensify upstream overnight and nose
of this jet will push into western areas Wednesday morning. Still
expect a split upper wave to approach Wednesday and begin to
phase late in the day over the region. Strong isentropic surge
with low level jet along with initial dpva should lead to light
rain spreading across the region during the day and lingering into
evening hours. As mentioned by previous shift, thermal profiles
on leading edge of pcpn could support a brief period of wet snow
before quick changeover to rain once thermal profile warms.

Similarly on back side, depending on timing of pcpn ending and
deepening cold wedge, could see pcpn end as period of light snow
but little accumulation or impacts expected.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 337 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
long anticipated warm spell looking much shorter and not as warm
as previously expected with latest iteration of models,
particularly gfs. Numerous short waves in northern stream flow
difficult for models to accurately pick up and discern and
creating havoc with latest output. Problem appears to lie in
development of strong east coast system this weekend that will
lift into labrador newfoundland region on Sunday and begin to
phase with strong upper low over hudson bay. This will help deepen
trough over ontario and great lakes region, bringing colder,
seasonally modified arctic air into great lakes region by Monday.

This looks to be a substantial reversal from prior model runs and
will need to be watched for consistency. However, all long range
models to some extent are showing this trend with differences on
strength of trough. For now will make little change to blends but
even they have trended cooler. Sunday still looks to be mild but
rain chances are increasing ahead of the cold front that will
likely bring the colder air back by Monday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 634 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
vfr conditions and light winds to prevail through the overnight
hours. An approaching disturbance will bring a prolong period of
light rain to the terminals for the last 12 hours of this taf
cycle. Rain should move into the ksbn terminal around the 12z hour
while being delayed until 17z for kfwa. As these showers impact
the terminals, expect ceilings and visby to drop into the MVFR. A
return toVFR resides outside of this forecast cycle.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Lashley
short term... Lashley
long term... Lashley
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi38 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 21°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi38 min SW 6 G 9.9 47°F 1026.4 hPa (-2.0)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi44 min SSW 7 G 11 47°F 1025.2 hPa25°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi38 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 1026.8 hPa (-1.6)
JAKI2 36 mi98 min SW 8.9 G 15 49°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi48 min WSW 11 G 15 47°F 24°F
FSTI2 44 mi98 min W 14 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi43 minSSW 610.00 miFair46°F23°F40%1026.4 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi42 minWSW 1010.00 miFair48°F23°F37%1027 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3S3SW3SW4SW4W7NW7W6CalmNW6SW8SW7NW3SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5NW4W4NW3W5W5NW7W7NW6W5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3SE3CalmCalmSW6SW7SW6W5W7NW8N8N10N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.