Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:14 AM CDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 933 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Periods of showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing west after midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southeast wind 5 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. The water temperature off michigan city is 56 degrees...and 59 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201906201630;;785967 FZUS53 KIWX 201333 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 933 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-201630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 201049
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 338 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
showers and a few storms will continue this morning but the amount
of coverage should decrease through the day. Torrential rain and
flooding remain possible with the heavier showers. Morning fog is
possible Friday before a dry and partly to mostly sunny day.

Unfortunately rain and storm chances return again Friday night and
will continue through the weekend and into early next week as the
wet pattern continues. Heavy rain and a few strong storms are
possible through the weekend.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 338 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
slow moving short wave to take its time exiting the area today.

Associated surface low will move along quasi-stationary boundary
in our south and finally exit the east later this afternoon. Wrap
around deformation rain seen nicely on radar and this will
transition east this morning. Fortunately rain overnight has not
been has heavy as expected with rainfall rates around a half to
one inch per hour. Despite slow movement, stronger returns have
been progressive and this has helped lower flood threat as well.

Expect showers and a few thunderstorms today to gradually diminish
from west to east. However, rather sharp cyclonic flow on backside
of system with peak heating and plenty of residual moisture will
likely lead to additional shra tsra development late morning and
afternoon, especially across the south to the east closer to
boundary and surface wave. For now have left flash flood watch
intact with uncertainty in cam output as to where stronger
convection will fire. This will likely be trimmed off in the west
early.

Some rain chances continue this evening with cams showing a few
stubborn showers within cyclonic flow lingering through 03z. Kept
a slight chance in from 00-03z but expect loss of heating and
subsidence with approaching high pressure to finally end the rain
threat. Fog then a concern overnight as ridge axis builds over the
area and winds become light or calm with skies likely clearing.

Added patchy fog to grids with this pattern similar to what we saw
a few mornings ago.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 338 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
nothing new here as active wet pattern continues. Uncertainty
remains high given fast flow and difficult nature to timing short
waves in this ridge riding pattern. Surface ridge slides east on
Friday and another warm front will approach from the west. Models
all show a decent short wave accompanying this feature but
differences develop with how far east it will make it and timing
of possible MCS diving southeast along instability gradient near
front. Similar differences continue through the weekend with ridge
likely just to our west and more energy spilling over top and
sending MCS S southeast. Each one of these potential systems will
impact timing and location of each successive system so trying to
add any pop detail is a futile process. Really no choice but to
run with national blend though did limit some of the higher pops
to likely category versus categorical.

Pwats continue to run from 1.5 to 2.0 inches during the period so
heavy rainfall and flood threat will continue to be prevalent
through next week.

Temperature forecast also quite difficult as warmer temps aloft
build in with ridge but abundant moisture will likely lead to
clouds and pcpn at times. Consensus blends may be a bit on cool
side compared to warmth that could be realized if subsidence
develops and skies clear one afternoon.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 643 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
a meso convective system was moving across northern indiana early
this morning. There were a few lightning strikes, but mostly
light to moderate rain with a few areas of heavy rain. Low ifr
conditions were across the area, although breaks in the lower
clouds were allowing some MVFR conditions. Gradual improvement is
later expected during the afternoon as rain ends and as winds
become northwest. Skies should become partly cloudy overnight with
chances for fog before daybreak.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch until 5 pm edt 4 pm cdt this afternoon for
inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

Beach hazards statement through this afternoon for inz003.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for inz003.

Mi... Flash flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz077>081.

Oh... Flash flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Lashley
short term... Lashley
long term... Lashley
aviation... Skipper
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi44 min N 22 G 25 58°F 58°F
45170 5 mi44 min NNW 18 G 21 56°F 60°F5 ft56°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi74 min NNW 11 G 15 56°F 1003 hPa (+2.3)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi44 min N 14 G 16 61°F 60°F2 ft1002.5 hPa58°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi56 min NNW 14 G 22 56°F 1003.6 hPa56°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi74 min NNE 8 G 12 64°F 1003 hPa (+1.6)
JAKI2 36 mi134 min N 12 G 25 58°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi44 min NNW 25 G 28 56°F 56°F
CNII2 39 mi44 min NNW 15 G 15 58°F 56°F
OKSI2 41 mi134 min NNE 6 G 12 58°F
FSTI2 44 mi134 min N 15 57°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi19 minN 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast59°F53°F82%1002.7 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi18 minNNW 12 G 173.00 miFog/Mist60°F57°F90%1002.6 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N7N6N8NE8N8
G15
N7N6N5N6N7N6N4N4CalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE6NE7N5N7N11
G14
1 day agoCalmN3NW3N6NW5NW5N4N6N3N3NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoW3CalmCalmW3NW3N4N4NW3N6N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.