Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 9:54 PM   Moonset 6:26 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ046 Expires:202404260815;;377625 Fzus53 Kiwx 260120 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 920 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-260815- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 920 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
Overnight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 252328 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 728 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly Friday night and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

On the heels of a freeze warning and frost advisory from this morning and with the shifted pattern for tonight, a good question to posit is if we return to frost conditions again tonight. Well, as opposed to being in the trough with various areas of mid level vorticity to support high clouds last night, tonight will have mid level ridging around with NAM and GFS bufkit soundings indicating decoupling is possible. This is in frost formation's favor, however, increasing gradient is not. As an upper level low pressure system lifts northeast out of the Southern Plains, the gradient starts tightening after 6z from west to east and a low level jet approaches by 12z Friday. This also may be able to spread some high clouds in west of US-31 to also stunt any remaining cooling after 6z there. Temperatures could also crater not too long after sunset with the dry air around. With these thoughts in mind, have hoisted a frost advisory to cover areas generally north of US-30 and east of US-31.

Moving forward, for Friday, a warm front encroaches on the area spreading moisture into the area. PWATs between 1.25 and 1.5 inches which is 1 to 3 SDs above climatological norms help indicate the moisture to be tapped into. Surface convergence arrives during the afternoon especially for areas along and south of US-30 and then continues moving northeastward through 6z. While some embedded thunder may be possible as this front passes through, much of the instability will stay to our west through 12z Saturday. Given this and the fact that the better moisture still hasn't arrived yet, QPF totals stay below 0.5 inch and taper off quickly southeast of our 2nd tier of counties away from Lake MI.

For Saturday, more instability looks to be able to work into areas west of I-69 with the best instability looking to be in the aforementioned lake-adjacent counties. West of I-69, better columnar moisture looks to move in with surface dew points surpassing 60 degrees and 850 mb dew points surpassing 10C. However, we lose the better forcing between 12 and 18z with it going northeast of the area so would expect coverage of rainfall to decrease unless we can get an outflow boundary to move through. If we can get some thunderstorms to form, it looks like there'll be around 30 kts of effective shear to work with. SPC has those aforementioned lake-adjacent counties covered with a marginal chance of severe weather for Saturday. The shear would make damaging wind the most likely outcome from severe storms, but perhaps a tornado with SRH around 200 m2/s2 and sub- 1000m LCLs, as well as a few sporadic reports of hail with 6 to 7 C/km mid level lapse rates attempting to move in, but that moist low levels may remove that possibility.

Moving forward, for Saturday night, the moisture axis shifts from along our western counties to along and north of US-6 by Sunday morning, which would allow for a break for much of the forecast area from rain, especially those south of US-6. Now, there is still some 700 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with on the ECMWF model Sunday so if there is a lingering boundary, perhaps we could tap into that for some storms then. We'll have to wait for a better chance for rain along an area of upper divergence as it swings through ahead of the main cold front late Sunday night/Monday. This area of moisture does look to stall out overhead and may be able to have some instability to work with. The GFS has an axis of 30 kts of effective shear east of I-69 during the afternoon so perhaps some severe weather could be had as well.

All told, through these successive rainfall events from later Friday into Tuesday morning, the NBM doesn't have more than 10 to 20 percent chance of 1 inch in 24 hours. Would think these percentages might be a little higher should convective rain be added to the equation. That helps to draw a picture for how little rain we get with the main limiting factor being the forcing.

While the GFS forms what appears to be convective rain with sporadic weak vort maxes moving through in the mid level flow, think that the next best chance for rain holds off until the Tuesday night through Wednesday time frame as another cold front moves through. With the speed of the front, perhaps a few thunderstorms could form early afternoon south of US-24 Wednesday as long as clouds break up to allow instability to form.

Temperatures during this forecast period trend warmer from today's 50s to tomorrow 60s to around 70 degrees. Then from Saturday through the end of the forecast period, 70s for highs will be in play. No threat for additional frost occurrences is forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will dominate through most, if not all, of the period as high pressure retains control. A warm front will begin to edge north late in the period with some indications of rain trying to take shape near after 21Z Fri mainly at KSBN. Models have not been consistent on this with a fair amount of dry air to work through before anything reaches the ground. While some rain may impact KSBN, vsbys are unlikely to be impacted and cigs will remain VFR through at least 00Z. As a result, have left any mention of precip out for now and relegate the addition of any impacts to later forecasts and especially later periods.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ005>009-017-018-025>027-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ078>081.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,