Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 3:05 AM

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LMZ046 Expires:202405181415;;410898 Fzus53 Kiwx 180801 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 401 am edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-181415- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 401 am edt Sat may 18 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog early. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - North winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 53 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 180949 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 549 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions for this weekend into Tuesday. Warmest conditions expected for Sunday through Tuesday with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

- A potential for more organized storms with some strong/severe thunderstorm potential late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but continued indications of later arrival to storm chances which may limit overall severe threat.

- Additional chances of storms Wednesday with a cold front passage leading to cooler/drier air for late work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

In the near term, fog and stratus potential will be the main forecast challenge. Through 07Z, more notable vsby restrictions in fog development are starting to take place across far northeast Indiana, south central Lower Michigan, and far northwest Ohio. Weak low level convergence with weak sfc low reflection and higher crossover temps appear to be favoring these locations for fog development. Near sfc weak easterly flow off Lake Erie may also be contributing to some favorable near sfc moisture lapse rates for fog development. Satellite imagery/sfc observations do indicate a fog/stratus combination downwind of Lake Erie across northwest Ohio. Widespread dense fog is currently not anticipated across the area, but will continue to watch far northeast locations for potential areas of dense fog early this morning.

Otherwise today, the old vort max which tracked across Lower Michigan last evening will begin to take a southeast jog today across western Ohio. A very subtle sfc reflection of this old short wave may allow for redevelopment of some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon south of US 24 corridor across far northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Instability should be limited by mixing down a pocket of drier low level today combined with development of a weak subsidence inversion. Based on track of this vort max, most favored areas of isolated shower development may end up just southeast of the local area. The primary story today will be the warming low level temperatures as weak mid level height rises and moderating low level temps under influence of large scale low/mid level subsidence occurs. This should drive highs into the lower 80s across much of the area.

For tonight, primarily dry conditions expected with perhaps some more patchy fog development east of I-69 where weak near sfc easterly flow should keep favorable moisture profiles in place.
Focusing back to the west, a stronger upper vort max will be lifting across western Ontario overnight allowing for eastward progression of a weak sfc trough into the western Great Lakes.
Some higher res guidance indicates just enough elevated mid level moisture pooling for a few showers and storms along this boundary as it reaches far NW Indiana, western Lower Michigan late tonight into early Sunday morning. Will keep forecast dry at this time, with expectation this weak sfc trough may have more of an influence on isolated shower development for Sunday.

Some enhancement to sfc northwest flow behind this trough off Lake Michigan could allow for enough sfc convergence for isolated showers and storms on Sunday, especially considering some weak moisture pooling near the sfc trough. Previous forecast has this trend well in hand and no major changes made to slight chance PoPs for Sunday. Reinforcing low level thermal ridge with this feature will tack on another few degrees to high temperatures Sunday in comparison to Saturday (low to mid 80s).

For Monday, upper ridge axis will being to shift east of the area with attention turning to a progressive smaller scale short wave lifting northeast out of the Central Plains. This strength of this vort max appears to largely depend on diabatic processes with Central Plains convection on Sunday which creates some lower confidence in timing/track as it lifts northeast into Monday.
This diabatically driven PV anomaly appears to induce strongest low level moisture advection to the NW-N of the local area leading to low confidence in shower/storm chances. Perhaps best chance of isolated-scattered showers and storms with this feature will be Monday evening into early Tuesday as warm frontal boundary begins to sharpen.

Tuesday and Wednesday are still the periods featuring potentially the more impactful weather. A more dynamically driven upper trough should acquire some negative tilt as it lifts across the Upper MS Valley Tuesday night, although strength and timing of this trough will again depend on how upstream convection evolves. Guidance has maintained trend of more stout upper ridging being maintained into Tuesday evening which may delay pre-frontal forced convection until later Tuesday evening or overnight Tuesday. Given uncertainty with track of the upstream vort, maintained general idea of blended PoPs with west-east ramp up of PoPs Tuesday evening/overnight.
Storms in vicinity of warm front through mid afternoon Tuesday could be isolated strong in nature, although better shear profiles will lag until Tuesday night. By this time, instability magnitudes become more in question with possibility of some CIN developing for near sfc based parcels. This later timing trend continues to lower confidence in appreciable severe threat, but still a period that will need to be watched Tuesday night.

A secondary lower amplitude upper trough and cold front will allow for continued shower/storm chances into Wednesday. A few of these could be strong with some gusty winds, but occluding nature of Great Lakes system could pinch off better instability to south of the local area.

Cooler and drier air settles into the region for Thursday but medium range guidance continues to suggest low amplitude progressive pattern of eastern Pacific waves with additional chances of precip for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 548 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Steering flow aloft and near the surface is incredibly weak, so winds will remain light and variable throughout the day at less than 5 knots. There is some dense fog in NW Ohio and NE Indiana that may meander towards KFWA through 13Z. Any areas of fog will lift this morning, with high MVFR/low VFR ceilings and VFR visibilities for the rest of the day.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for INZ005-012>015-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ007.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002- 004-005.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ080-081.
MARINE...None.

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