Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairport Harbor, OH
March 18, 2024 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:28 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:01 PM Moonset 3:27 AM |
LEZ147 Expires:202403190215;;966638 Fzus51 Kcle 181948 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 348 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez146>149-190215- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 348 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Numerous snow showers early, then scattered snow showers from late evening on. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 49 degrees, off cleveland 42 degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 348 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez146>149-190215- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 348 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 49 degrees, off cleveland 42 degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.
LEZ100
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 190106 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 906 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update
SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The next system will approach the area Thursday night through Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
900 pm update...
Well weather conditions have rapidly changed over portions of the Cleveland metro area, mainly the western and southern suburbs as well as the secondary snowbelt region this evening.
There is a "MCV" like feature that came off the lake into the CLE area this evening that is tracking along the Ohio Turnpike corridor with enhanced lake effect snow of 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. We have issued a winter weather advisory for parts of the primary and secondary snowbelt where we can see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall on top of what has already fallen earlier today. We have also included parts of NWPA and far NEOH in a winter weather advisory for lake effect snow because of several reports from our snow spotters of 1 to 3 inches snowfall from earlier today and an additional 1 to 3 inches could be possible through early tomorrow morning.
700 pm update...
With this mid evening update, we made some small adjustments to the hourly POPs through 06z with the main focus of higher probabilities being over the primary Snowbelt areas through the late evening and overnight hours. We will continue to see the lake effect snow showers and flow from a 270-300 degree direction through the late evening. The low level flow will gradually become more west-southwesterly late tonight into Tuesday morning which will help shift the lake effect more parallel to the lakeshore and directed into far NEOH and NWPA.
One to three
Previous discussion...
Light snow showers will continue across most of the area through this evening and another push of moderate snow showers currently moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move into southwestern zones by early this evening. Can't rule out some quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts of snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind guidance in the upcoming updates.
The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs don't ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term period.
Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the I-71 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the lower 30s Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined upper- level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night. Temperatures aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the passage of this upper-level trough, dipping down to -12 C at 850mb by 00Z/Thu and - 15 C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than enough to produce moderate lake-induced instability for lake effect precipitation.
However, most model guidance has the best forcing and moisture content during the day Wednesday, with moisture content diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Surface temperatures during the day Wednesday are fairly marginal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any minor snow accumulations will probably be limited to mainly inland Northwest Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun angle should limit snow accumulations until the evening time.
Through Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in eastern Erie County.
High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper- level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid- Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided by both of these features will likely result in periods of precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it's likely to be different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.
Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual, marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.
AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Conditions will range from VFR to localized low end MVFR, and possibly brief IFR this evening into the overnight. VFR conditions are expected outside of lake effect snow showers which will mainly impact the primary and secondary snowbelt region this evening. Ceilings will drop between 1500 to 3000 feet with passing snow showers. Heavier, brief bursts of lake effect snow showers will bring down visibilities between 1sm and 3sm at times. These lower flight category changes may impact CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI this evening. The snow showers will start to push more into far NEOH and NWPA by early Tuesday morning and impact ERI through the morning hours before tapering off. VFR conditions for all sites will return Tuesday morning through the afternoon as ceilings lift above 5000 feet. West-northwest winds this evening will be around 8 to 12 knots. The winds will become southwesterly by Tuesday morning through the afternoon between 15 to 20 knots. Gusts will return by mid morning and increase between 20 and 30 plus knots during the day.
Outlook...
Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Additional non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers areawide late Thursday through Friday.
MARINE
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There's a bit of a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it's very likely an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ010-011- 020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>149.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 906 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update
SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The next system will approach the area Thursday night through Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
900 pm update...
Well weather conditions have rapidly changed over portions of the Cleveland metro area, mainly the western and southern suburbs as well as the secondary snowbelt region this evening.
There is a "MCV" like feature that came off the lake into the CLE area this evening that is tracking along the Ohio Turnpike corridor with enhanced lake effect snow of 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. We have issued a winter weather advisory for parts of the primary and secondary snowbelt where we can see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall on top of what has already fallen earlier today. We have also included parts of NWPA and far NEOH in a winter weather advisory for lake effect snow because of several reports from our snow spotters of 1 to 3 inches snowfall from earlier today and an additional 1 to 3 inches could be possible through early tomorrow morning.
700 pm update...
With this mid evening update, we made some small adjustments to the hourly POPs through 06z with the main focus of higher probabilities being over the primary Snowbelt areas through the late evening and overnight hours. We will continue to see the lake effect snow showers and flow from a 270-300 degree direction through the late evening. The low level flow will gradually become more west-southwesterly late tonight into Tuesday morning which will help shift the lake effect more parallel to the lakeshore and directed into far NEOH and NWPA.
One to three
Previous discussion...
Light snow showers will continue across most of the area through this evening and another push of moderate snow showers currently moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move into southwestern zones by early this evening. Can't rule out some quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts of snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind guidance in the upcoming updates.
The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs don't ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term period.
Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the I-71 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the lower 30s Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined upper- level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night. Temperatures aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the passage of this upper-level trough, dipping down to -12 C at 850mb by 00Z/Thu and - 15 C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than enough to produce moderate lake-induced instability for lake effect precipitation.
However, most model guidance has the best forcing and moisture content during the day Wednesday, with moisture content diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Surface temperatures during the day Wednesday are fairly marginal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any minor snow accumulations will probably be limited to mainly inland Northwest Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun angle should limit snow accumulations until the evening time.
Through Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in eastern Erie County.
High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper- level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid- Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided by both of these features will likely result in periods of precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it's likely to be different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.
Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual, marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.
AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Conditions will range from VFR to localized low end MVFR, and possibly brief IFR this evening into the overnight. VFR conditions are expected outside of lake effect snow showers which will mainly impact the primary and secondary snowbelt region this evening. Ceilings will drop between 1500 to 3000 feet with passing snow showers. Heavier, brief bursts of lake effect snow showers will bring down visibilities between 1sm and 3sm at times. These lower flight category changes may impact CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI this evening. The snow showers will start to push more into far NEOH and NWPA by early Tuesday morning and impact ERI through the morning hours before tapering off. VFR conditions for all sites will return Tuesday morning through the afternoon as ceilings lift above 5000 feet. West-northwest winds this evening will be around 8 to 12 knots. The winds will become southwesterly by Tuesday morning through the afternoon between 15 to 20 knots. Gusts will return by mid morning and increase between 20 and 30 plus knots during the day.
Outlook...
Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Additional non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers areawide late Thursday through Friday.
MARINE
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There's a bit of a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it's very likely an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ010-011- 020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>149.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH | 5 mi | 50 min | WNW 20G | 33°F | 44°F | 29.91 | 28°F | |
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH | 16 mi | 98 min | NW 20G | |||||
ASBO1 | 26 mi | 68 min | NW 12G | |||||
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH | 27 mi | 50 min | NW 17G | 33°F | 46°F | 29.92 | ||
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 40 mi | 68 min | W 9.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLNN LAKE COUNTY EXECUTIVE,OH | 12 sm | 13 min | NW 10G15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 25°F | 74% | 29.96 | |
KCGF CUYAHOGA COUNTY,OH | 22 sm | 23 min | WNW 09G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 25°F | 74% | 29.94 |
Cleveland, OH,
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