Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 5:13 AM   Moonset 8:43 PM

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LEZ147 Expires:202405090215;;860853 Fzus51 Kcle 081943 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>147-090215- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning - .
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.Thursday night - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 090230 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1030 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region late tonight into Thursday. Unsettled weather will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
9:50 PM Update: Only minor adjustments needed to the forecast. Slowed down the onset of POPs a bit. The exact coverage of showers very late tonight through Thursday morning remains somewhat uncertain, especially across North Central and Northeast OH. As mentioned below, forcing isn't very strong through Thursday morning and there will be relatively dry northeast low-level flow in place.
However, some models (such as the 3km NAM) have rather widespread rain Thursday morning. Recent HRRR runs have trended towards filling in more showers across most of North Central and Northeast OH. Still feel the greatest shower potential overall will spread from west to east from around midday through the early evening, though did increase POPs just a bit Thursday morning across North Central and Northeast Ohio. Hit everyone with a categorical (80%+) POP at some point Thursday afternoon or early evening with most areas peaking at 90-100%, as there's decent agreement everyone will see measurable rain at some point in the afternoon or early evening.

Previous Discussion: High pressure has allowed for a period of dry weather today. It was a bit breezy this afternoon with wind gusts around 25 mph, though expecting these gusts to diminish around sunset tonight.
As the high exits the region tonight a warm front lifts northeastward and will allow for high level clouds to begin to filter in tonight. Confidence in shower coverage early tomorrow morning along the front has decreased since the last forecast update as frontogenesis and upper level support has backed off slightly. The better chance for widespread rain showers and embedded thunder comes late Thursday morning and early afternoon as the parent low glides east across Northern Ohio. This low will take its time exiting the region and will keep rain chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Can't rule out some nuisance flooding with any pockets of heavier rainfall through the end of the week, but overall impacts should be minimal.

Slightly above normal overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s for most, upper 40s to lower 50s in Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs tomorrow will be cooler as they will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Near normal overnight lows Thursday night in the mid/upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead.
Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that trough departs to the east. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure very briefly builds in Friday night before another upper- level trough and associated surface low move southeast across the Great Lakes region. Periods of rain showers are expected through the day Saturday, with mean QPF around 0.25" (some spots lower, other areas as high as 0.5"). Isolated thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger into Saturday night, mainly for the eastern part of the forecast area. Temperatures will be below normal through the short term period with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Broad weak upper-level ridging builds in, although several weak upper-level shortwaves move across the area through the week, resulting in low PoPs maintaining through the long term period.
Temperatures gradually warm up through the week with highs in the low 70s increasing to mid-upper 70s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
VFR will continue through early Thursday. Thursday morning will see a warm front will lift out of central OH, though it likely won't quite reach FDY/MFD/CAK. During the afternoon and evening on Thursday this front will begin sinking back southeast as low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. An initial push of showers will try pushing in ahead of the warm front late tonight into early Thursday, though this activity will be fairly hit/miss and light so not expecting many restrictions with the showers. Handled with a VCSH mention where needed. A period of MVFR ceilings may still develop north of the warm front Thursday morning, though dry northeasterly flow will try to counteract it. Limited any MVFR ceilings Thursday morning and afternoon to TOL, FDY and MFD, and even at these sites only prevail them for a few hours. Can't rule out brief MVFR at CAK either but confidence is lower. Showers will become more numerous and a bit more intense from west to east later Thursday morning into the afternoon. The greatest potential for vsby restrictions will be at CAK and YNG, where there's also a low risk of thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, some additional non-VFR ceilings may begin developing near or just after the end of the current TAF period Thursday evening.

West-northwest winds are subsiding to less than 7 knots this evening. Winds will turn northeast overnight at 5 to 10 knots and continue through Thursday. Locations along the lakeshore (including TOL/CLE/ERI) may see stronger northeasterly winds increase to 12-15 knots accompanied by gusts 20-25 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers and lower clouds Thursday night into Friday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers and storms Saturday into Saturday night.

MARINE
Low pressure over northern Missouri gradually moves east tonight and tomorrow across the Ohio Valley, with easterly winds strengthening to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. As the low moves east towards the mid-Atlantic region, winds gradually veer to northeast, north and northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds of up to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet will result in a small craft advisory for this period for all of our Lake Erie nearshore waters.

Another weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes region on Saturday. There could be periods of stronger winds to 15 knots, but it's a low chance of small craft advisory at this point. The wind and wave forecast looks to be mild Sunday onward as there will be no strong low of high pressure systems.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.

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