Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantine, MI
March 19, 2024 7:18 AM EDT (11:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:46 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:24 PM Moonset 4:28 AM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning - .
Early this morning - Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Today - Southwest gales to 35 knots veering west to 30 knots, then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet toward daybreak.
Wednesday - Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ800
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 190942 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 542 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph are expected today with a few sporadic 45 mph gusts possible.
- Cold, below freezing overnight low temperatures are expected tonight through the weekend with the coldest lows occurring Wednesday and Saturday nights, when lows in the 20s are likely.
- The next chance for precipitation is later Thursday night through Friday with some combination of snow and rain possible.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The trough and its attendant vorticity that brought the colder temperatures Monday shifts east as surface high pressure noses into the area from the south. Meanwhile, a second vort max passes through the Northern Great Lakes today forcing a clipper system on a track eastward to north. Plenty of low level dry air will keep any precipitation at bay despite the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Warm air advection out in front of the cold front will help warm temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s today and will also provide a low level inversion restricting mixing. A 45 kt low level jet will slide through the area today increasing wind gusts across the area. NAM bufkit soundings indicate 30-39 kt (35 to 44 mph) gusts could easily be brought down to the surface with the occasional 40 kt (around 45 mph) gust possible. The upper mixing threshold seems to reach 45 to 50 kts, which may allow the cold front to bring down such winds. Am a little skeptical of such an occurrence given the warm advection pattern we're in. With the dry air (30-40 percent MinRH values), warm temperatures, and gusty winds, this is generally the first clue for fire weather, however, the 10 hr fuels are still a little moist in the 10-15 percent range as opposed to the single digits, which would point to more sporadic grass fires if anything does get going. With the aforementioned trough axis shifting eastward today, 850 mb temperatures will be increasing overnight and the boundary layer remains coupled enough to restrict radiational cooling such that we bottom out in the low 30s to upper 20s as opposed to the mid to upper 20s last night.
As is typical behind clipper systems, the surface high pressure system following behind it noses in keeping the area dry Wednesday and Thursday. The cold advection behind the clipper system helps high temperatures fall back below seasonal norms to between the mid 30s and the mid 40s. Additionally, it will also help lows to fall to the low 20s and upper teens Wednesday night It'll take until Thursday to relax the pressure gradient overhead as the high pressure center approaches allowing 25 to 30 mph gusts Wednesday, but sustained winds failing to exceed 10 kts on Thursday. Wednesday may make another run at fire weather potential with the gusty winds and dry weather (25 to 40 percent MinRH) along with drier 10 hr fuels.
Chances for precipitation increase Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system ejects off the Rockies. A setup where the energy for this system actually goes to the north and the moisture plume stays to the south is a possibility with this system, which may make for a later start time and could cut out any snow mention at all. The GFS seems to advertise such a solution, but it's an outlier from the EC and GEM solutions. It does look like warming takes place even on the ECMWF despite precipitation occuring in its solution so rain may be able to mix in during the day times. This looks to vacate the area Friday night. We are currently advertising upper 30s to upper 40s for highs Friday, but, again, depending on if it precipitates, could see these dropping in future runs.
The weekend has begun to look drier as an upper low over eastern Canada has trended southward slowing the advance of moisture out of the Plains towards the region. Temperatures trend warmer through the 40s on Saturday to reaching 50 in our south Sunday. Models diverge, next week, as it pertains to the sharpness of the trough ejecting from the southwest. It could cause a low pressure system to ride northward to the west of our region or it may graze our west.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 542 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR this period. Fast moving clipper skirting the nrn lakes will yield a period of intense warm advection today with deep mixing developing ramping through this morning. Swrly winds will escalate quickly after sunrise with peak gusts to 40kts or better this aftn.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 542 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph are expected today with a few sporadic 45 mph gusts possible.
- Cold, below freezing overnight low temperatures are expected tonight through the weekend with the coldest lows occurring Wednesday and Saturday nights, when lows in the 20s are likely.
- The next chance for precipitation is later Thursday night through Friday with some combination of snow and rain possible.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The trough and its attendant vorticity that brought the colder temperatures Monday shifts east as surface high pressure noses into the area from the south. Meanwhile, a second vort max passes through the Northern Great Lakes today forcing a clipper system on a track eastward to north. Plenty of low level dry air will keep any precipitation at bay despite the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Warm air advection out in front of the cold front will help warm temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s today and will also provide a low level inversion restricting mixing. A 45 kt low level jet will slide through the area today increasing wind gusts across the area. NAM bufkit soundings indicate 30-39 kt (35 to 44 mph) gusts could easily be brought down to the surface with the occasional 40 kt (around 45 mph) gust possible. The upper mixing threshold seems to reach 45 to 50 kts, which may allow the cold front to bring down such winds. Am a little skeptical of such an occurrence given the warm advection pattern we're in. With the dry air (30-40 percent MinRH values), warm temperatures, and gusty winds, this is generally the first clue for fire weather, however, the 10 hr fuels are still a little moist in the 10-15 percent range as opposed to the single digits, which would point to more sporadic grass fires if anything does get going. With the aforementioned trough axis shifting eastward today, 850 mb temperatures will be increasing overnight and the boundary layer remains coupled enough to restrict radiational cooling such that we bottom out in the low 30s to upper 20s as opposed to the mid to upper 20s last night.
As is typical behind clipper systems, the surface high pressure system following behind it noses in keeping the area dry Wednesday and Thursday. The cold advection behind the clipper system helps high temperatures fall back below seasonal norms to between the mid 30s and the mid 40s. Additionally, it will also help lows to fall to the low 20s and upper teens Wednesday night It'll take until Thursday to relax the pressure gradient overhead as the high pressure center approaches allowing 25 to 30 mph gusts Wednesday, but sustained winds failing to exceed 10 kts on Thursday. Wednesday may make another run at fire weather potential with the gusty winds and dry weather (25 to 40 percent MinRH) along with drier 10 hr fuels.
Chances for precipitation increase Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system ejects off the Rockies. A setup where the energy for this system actually goes to the north and the moisture plume stays to the south is a possibility with this system, which may make for a later start time and could cut out any snow mention at all. The GFS seems to advertise such a solution, but it's an outlier from the EC and GEM solutions. It does look like warming takes place even on the ECMWF despite precipitation occuring in its solution so rain may be able to mix in during the day times. This looks to vacate the area Friday night. We are currently advertising upper 30s to upper 40s for highs Friday, but, again, depending on if it precipitates, could see these dropping in future runs.
The weekend has begun to look drier as an upper low over eastern Canada has trended southward slowing the advance of moisture out of the Plains towards the region. Temperatures trend warmer through the 40s on Saturday to reaching 50 in our south Sunday. Models diverge, next week, as it pertains to the sharpness of the trough ejecting from the southwest. It could cause a low pressure system to ride northward to the west of our region or it may graze our west.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 542 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR this period. Fast moving clipper skirting the nrn lakes will yield a period of intense warm advection today with deep mixing developing ramping through this morning. Swrly winds will escalate quickly after sunrise with peak gusts to 40kts or better this aftn.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHAI THREE RIVERS MUNI DR HAINES,MI | 10 sm | 23 min | SW 09G16 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 28°F | 16°F | 59% | 29.86 | |
KIRS KIRSCH MUNI,MI | 13 sm | 23 min | WSW 13G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 28°F | 16°F | 59% | 29.86 | |
KEKM ELKHART MUNI,IN | 19 sm | 23 min | SW 12 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 27°F | 18°F | 68% | 29.89 | |
KGSH GOSHEN MUNI,IN | 22 sm | 25 min | SW 13 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 27°F | 18°F | 68% | 29.89 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
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