Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:24PM Monday June 26, 2017 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 356 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of waterspouts in the evening. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet toward daybreak.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201706261515;;836693 FZUS53 KGRR 260756 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 356 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-261515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantine, MI
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location: 41.84, -85.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 261021
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
a cold day by late june standards is in store for the region with
highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. A series of
disturbances may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the
area through early evening. Tuesday will be dry with slightly
warmer temperatures. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night
into early Thursday and Friday into early Saturday with locally
heavy rain possible.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
today will be the coolest of the next several days as highs reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Series of weak disturbances noted on
water vapor and also reflected on radar with light showers here and
there from north central indiana back into southern wisconsin. Hi
res models all shows at least some limited shower development the
remainder of the night into Monday morning with hrrr slightly more
robust with a few heavier showers isol thunder. Afternoon heating
across the south as well as slightly steeper lapse rates from cold
pool aloft may also allow for isolated showers south of us-30. Hi
res models have backed a fair amount on coverage location of this
activity with much of it either isolated and or south of the area.

Enough factors still in play to warrant holding onto slgt chc to chc
pops through the day, focused north in the morning and then just
about anywhere afternoon. A few of the stronger showers or storms
could product locally gusty winds and some small hail given 500 mb
temps -20 to -22c.

A few showers may still linger early this evening, but expecting dry
conditions after as high pressure moves overhead. Lows will drop
into almost chilly values in the upper 40s to around 50 for late
june.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
Tuesday still looks to be the driest of the upcoming days as high
pressure drifts overhead. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures
will still be several degrees below normal. Upper level flow will
become somewhat zonal with a series of waves still expected to
move towards the great lakes by mid week with main trough digging
and moving in towards Friday.

Models continue to vary on eastward extent of convective potential
weds afternoon into thurs morning with one of these waves. GFS may
be suffering a touch of convective feedback, but nonetheless
signals a potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some severe
weather, mainly to locations just to our north and west.

Superblend of models increases pops to categorical late weds ngt,
which at this juncture may be overdone. Inherited likely pops in
the NW weds ngt and while some apprehension to leave in will keep
running with and remove any categorical mention. If rain can move
in, warm layer depth pushing 12,000 ft and pwats around 1.75
inches would yield some efficient rainfall. Similar, if not
somewhat higher numbers come into play by Friday with what may be
more widespread coverage across the area, especially fri
afternoon evening. Have held with likely pops as well in this
period.

Drier conditions will move in for the weekend with rain chances in
the offing just outside the current forecast period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 609 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
not much change expected for the 12z tafs with main forecast
challenge on extent of any afternoon isolated-scattered
showers storms. Upper vort MAX slowly drifting across western
great lakes may be enough to generate an isolated shower or
sprinkle this morning across far northern indiana, but best chance
of isolated shower thunderstorm activity still appears to be this
afternoon as an upper speed MAX nosing into corn belt region this
morning progresses southeast to the ohio valley. Moisture is
quite limited but relatively steep mid level lapse rates and
approach of this forcing could yield a few showers storms in the
20-23z timeframe. With coverage quite limited, confidence in
occurrence for point terminal forecasts remains too low for vcsh
mention and will defer to later forecasts amendments for possible
inclusion. Diurnal mixing and steep low level lapse rates should
support a few west-northwest gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range
again today, with gusts dropping off after 23z.VFR conditions to
persist through the forecast valid period with cloud bases
generally AOA 5k feet.

Marine
Issued at 504 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
winds and waves will increase through the day as 10 to 20 kts
winds occur with gusts to 25 kts. Wave model heights were coming
in much lower than buoy data with cook buoy already in the 5 to 7
foot range and michigan city a touch lower. While waves may
decrease somewhat through sunrise, expect them to pick up again.

For the lakeshore areas, this will translate to dangerous swim
conditions into tonight.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz003.

Mi... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Fisher
short term... Fisher
long term... Fisher
aviation... Marsili
marine... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 66 mi35 min WSW 15 G 17 61°F 53°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 70 mi55 min W 19 G 21 60°F 1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines Memorial Airport, MI9 mi30 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F52°F77%1019.3 hPa
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI13 mi30 minWNW 610.00 miFair58°F52°F81%1019 hPa
Elkhart Municipal, IN19 mi33 minWSW 810.00 miFair57°F53°F88%1019.3 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN22 mi32 minWSW 7 miFair57°F51°F81%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from HAI (wind in knots)
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W3CalmCalmW3W3SW4W7W6W4W5W4W8
1 day agoNW8W8W8W12
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2 days agoW3W3W11NW11NW10
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NW10NW9W4CalmCalmW3SW3W3NW6W6W4W5W4W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.