Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:00 PM EST (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Snow showers likely. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots backing west 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ844 Expires:201801161015;;514454 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantine, MI
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location: 41.84, -85.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 161734
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1234 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 406 am est Tue jan 16 2018
mainly light lake effect snow will continue this morning over
northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan with an inch or two
of accumulation possible. An intense single band of lake effect
snow is expected to develop offshore later today but there is a
high amount of uncertainty with where this band may come onshore
and produce heavy snow. Due to this uncertainty, a winter storm
watch continues for later today and tonight. Accumulations of 4 to
8 inches with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be
possible with the band when it does move onshore. Otherwise it
will be cold with areas south of us 30 having wind chills as low
as 10 to 15 below zero this morning. A warming trend is expected
later this week with temperatures into the 40s this weekend with
rain likely.

Update
Issued at 854 am est Tue jan 16 2018
holding with winter storm watch this morning. Mesovort moving
onshore in lake, porter and la porte counties at this time has
dropped visibilities with light to moderate snow. Issued sps to
address the potential hazardous driving conditions. Main concern
is single band still upstream that is starting to develop and
become organized. Will reevaluate the watch as new data starts to
trickle in this morning.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 406 am est Tue jan 16 2018
focus squarely on complex lake effect setup for today and
tonight. This is one of the more complex and unique lashley-
hitchcock type vi setups I can remember with regards to where
event begins and how it will evolve.

What we do know right now is that cyclonically long fetch will
help develop an intense band of snow this morning that will have
about everything going for it for a window from mid morning
through mid evening tonight. 925mb low and vort center will move
east early this morning allowing low level directional shear to
decrease and flow to become better aligned down entire mid lake
axis. 0-2km thetae lapse rates show plenty of instability with
values between -1 and -2 k km the entire way and classic sfc-
850mb delta TS in the mid 20s as well. Inversion heights to climb
to near 10kft allowing for deeper convection to develop. Already
seeing band formation along western shore of lake and expect this
to quickly intensify this morning. The question remains where and
even when this band will come onshore later today.

Model guidance remains largely split between a western and
eastern camp for where the more intense single band will come
onshore. The lower resolution spectral models and the nam12
largely favor the band coming onshore mid-day into laporte county
as previously anticipated. However, the last several runs of the
higher resolution mesoscale models are persistent in bringing the
mesovortex onshore this morning but keeping the intense single
band west before it moves east late this afternoon or this evening.

A few of these hires models even keep the band well west and
weaken it considerably as it finally moves east tonight.

Regional radar mosaic and surface obs at 03z suggested the 00z
nam12 925mb omega and wind fields had a rather good handle on
where pcpn was falling at that time but as of 09z the low level
flow has kept upstream pcpn along the lakeshore where the nam12
omega suggested it should have moved east over the lake. Thus
trends are leaning us to favor the western solutions a little more
now but still not discounting the eastern solutions as the 06z
nam12 remains persistent bringing band east. The combination of a
complex mesoscale setup over the southern end of the lake with a
significant lack of observational data is leading to the high
uncertainty. Radar trends over last few hours suggest several
mesolows along trough across the lake. These features are now
beginning to sink south and expect light snow this morning in the
northwest with 1 to 2 inches generally but could see a few locally
higher amounts within one of the mesovortices. A break in snow or
at least more light snow likely in subsidence region behind
mesolow until main band finally moves onshore. Latest 08z runs of
rap and hrrr are concerning in keeping majority of plume west of
our CWA or just into western laporte county.

Given the unusual amount of uncertainty and model spread
along with the slower arrival, have collaborated with klot and
decided to take the rare stance of keeping the watch going until
we can actually see the single band become more defined and get a
better handle on the movement through the early to mid morning
hours. This seemed more prudent than dropping headlines all
together or issuing an unnecessary warning or advisory. This will
be more like a short term convective situation as it unfolds today
so stay weather aware and listen for updates on this unique
situation.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 406 am est Tue jan 16 2018
long term remains rather quiet with a warming trend into the
weekend. Rain becomes likely, especially later in the weekend as
deep trough develops in the southwest CONUS and lifts northeast.

Models continue to keep our area in the warm sector and
climatologically this setup during la nina winters has yielded
some very heavy rainfall events in our local area. While system
appears progressive the potentially large surge of high pwat air
with central pacific and gomex origins could yield high rainfall
rates which could produce an inch or more of rainfall. Would not
be surprised to see some convection and thunder chances as well if
stronger model solutions are correct. Just a possibility at this
time and low confidence this far out but worth noting and watching
for possible flooding concerns early next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1221 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
impacts from lake induced low pressure on ksbn will be short lived
as this feature drops southeast over the next hour. The low may
rotate towards kfwa will a brief window of ifr impacts, but will
not reflect in tafs at this time.

Focus will be on single lake effect band currently across western
lk michigan into NE illinois. This will transition east after 00z
and may give impacts as the band settles over ksbn. Some concerns
as to exact time and time near over the site resulting in
remaining conservative in impacts to the airport until trends can
be better assessed. Impacts to kfwa should be with MVFR CIGS from
lake effect cloud cover that will spread southeast into the area.

Marine
Issued at 1221 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the nearshore marine forecast is suspended until april 1, 2018 or
until ice coverage diminishes sufficiently to allow wave action.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst
Wednesday for inz003-012.

Winter storm watch from 4 pm est this afternoon through
Wednesday morning for inz004-014.

Mi... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Wednesday for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Heidelberger
synopsis... Lashley
short term... Lashley
long term... Lashley
aviation... Fisher
marine... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 47 mi60 min SSW 1.9 G 6 12°F 1031.2 hPa (+0.0)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 66 mi40 min ESE 7 G 8
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 70 mi42 min S 7 G 8.9 1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines Memorial Airport, MI9 mi65 minSSW 45.00 miLight Snow8°F0°F71%1030.1 hPa
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI13 mi65 minSW 73.00 miLight Snow7°F0°F74%1029.1 hPa
Elkhart Municipal, IN19 mi2.2 hrsSSW 62.00 miLight Snow5°F0°F78%1030.8 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN22 mi67 minSW 94.00 miLight Snow6°F0°F76%1032.1 hPa

Wind History from HAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S6S4CalmS3CalmSW8SW8SW6SW5SW7SW8SW6S8S7S7S5SW9SW7SW7SW9S6SW6Calm
1 day agoS10S11S5
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2 days agoNW4NW6CalmNW6NW4NW7NW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3S4S5S3S7S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.