Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:24PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 10:09 PM EDT (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 946 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny until midday, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to around 15 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
LMZ844 Expires:201706280915;;928484 FZUS53 KGRR 280146 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 946 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-280915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantine, MI
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location: 41.84, -85.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 272338
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
738 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 716 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
high pressure over the ohio valley will move east tonight, with
southerly winds behind it resulting in breezy and warmer
conditions across our area tomorrow. The strong south winds will
cause high waves and dangerous swimming conditions along western
michigan beaches Wednesday. A cold front will drop slowly
southeast across the midwest late this week, likely causing
showers and thunderstorms in our area, with heavy rainfall and
severe storms possible.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 413 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
an upper level ridge remains entrenched over the region through the
rest of today into tonight, with surface high pressure below. The
pressure gradient tightens as we creep into Wednesday, as sfc low
pressure over the dakotas drifts eastward into minnesota wisconsin
with a shortwave aloft. This feature will be our next weather maker.

For tonight, expect gradually increasing cloud cover as the system
nears from the west. Lows will drop into the upper 40's and 50's.

Due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the low, we'll see
winds become southerly and increase to roughly 15-25 mph on
Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph not out of the question Wednesday
afternoon. This will lead to choppy wave conditions on lake
michigan, where a small craft advisory will be in place, along with
a hazardous swimming conditions at area beaches.

The question then turns to whether or not we'll see any
precipitation Wednesday. Most of the higher resolution models this
afternoon are pointing towards a dry afternoon, though the GFS and
consensus blends suggest chances in our far west as the system
nears. I am skeptical of our chances earlier in the day-given that
the upper level ridge remains strongly entrenched over our area.

As the negatively tilted trough arrives and begins to erode the
western edges of the ridge late Wednesday afternoon evening-we
could see some precipitation-though per 850-500 mb the best
forcing is further north and west of our cwa. Additionally, better
moisture transport instability of around 500 j kg doesn't arrive
until after 21z-with best moisture after 3z. Thus have likely
showers storms mainly after the 3z time frame.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 413 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
Wednesday night into Thursday we'll have the frontal boundary swing
through and stall out across the northwestern cwa, providing a
source of lift through Friday when a second low swings a stronger
cold front through. This will bring us chances for strong to severe
storms, particularly Thursday night into Friday. Heavy rain will
also be a concern, with warm cloud layers as deep as 13kft, and
pwats up to 150 to 175 percent of normal. Instability ranges from
around 500 j kg (sfc cape) to 1500 j kg during the Thursday
afternoon and Friday time frame, with steeper mid-level lapse rates
on Friday afternoon of around 7c km. 0-6 km shear looks to be around
30-40 knots in the northwestern part of our forecast area, but in
the east probably only around 20-30 knots. SPC has our forecast area
in a slight risk for Thursday night into Friday. Given the above, i
kept the likely pops from the previous forecast. It will be
interesting to see how the ingredients come together for severe
potential, with confidence still not the greatest given diverging
model solutions it being further out still. Temperature wise,
we'll back to warm and humid, with highs in the upper 70's and
80's. There are a few chances for showers storms into next
weekend, but confidence is lower at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 716 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
vfr conditions should cont across the area through this taf
period. CU along lake shadow convergence zone through fwa
expected to dissipate with loss of heating this eve. Upr level
ridge will cross NRN in overnight and Wed with associated
subsidence limiting cloudiness. A shrtwv lifting NE from the
central plains to the upr midwest will cause convection to our
w-nw, with some debris cloudiness prbly spreading across NRN in
during the day wed. Strong southerly flow to the SE of this system
will combine with diurnal heating to cause winds to gust to
around 25kt at the terminals wed.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... Beach hazards statement from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Jt
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Jt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 66 mi50 min ESE 6 G 7 70°F 43°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 70 mi70 min S 11 G 12 66°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines Memorial Airport, MI9 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair65°F43°F46%1018.3 hPa
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI13 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair65°F45°F48%1017.9 hPa
Elkhart Municipal, IN19 mi80 minN 010.00 miFair68°F41°F38%1017.9 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN22 mi77 minWNW 4 miFair65°F42°F43%1018 hPa

Wind History from HAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5W5W6
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1 day agoCalmCalmW3W3SW4W7W6W4W5W4W8W12W9
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2 days agoW3W3SW3SW5SW5SW4SW3SW3W3W5W12W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.