Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Through early evening..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots veering northwest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Memorial day..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201905240800;;344107 FZUS53 KGRR 232005 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-240800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantine, MI
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location: 41.84, -85.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 231919
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
319 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 311 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
drier air stays around the region during the rest of today and
into the overnight hours tonight. Overnight lows are able to drop
into the 50s. Clouds come back in on Friday as a warm front pushes
back north and a shower or storm is possible closer to the lake.

Another chance for showers occurs both Saturday and Sunday as a
front settles across the region. Highs Friday and Sunday will rise
into the 70s while highs on Saturday reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 311 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
behind this early morning's frontal passage, drier air will be able
to come in and the front will settle just to our south. This will
allow clouds to continue to clear during the afternoon and for a
good nocturnal subsidence inversion to form overnight. As such,
overnight lows will be able to drop into the 50s.

For Friday, clouds will be back on the increase during the day as
the aforementioned cold front comes back north as a warm front and
resides nearby the area. At the same time, an upper level low
pressure system will be able to eject off the rockies and push
into the northern plains and will push a good theta-e surge along
the warm front into the area. This will allow for a chance at more
showers despite the weak moisture content in the column. Most of
the forcing and the greatest theta-e gradient will be in areas
closer to the lake and hence the greatest chance in that area.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 311 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
the long term will be characterized by a ridge in the southeastern
conus and a trough in the western CONUS and many of the days will
threaten showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as well as a front
stalls nearby and wavers north and south.

For Friday night and into Saturday, expect moisture from a dying
cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system
to push southeast into the area allowing for the showers to push
farther southeast. The column takes some time to moisten so that
even at sbn, for example, the rain may not be able to occur until
after 12z Saturday. By 00z Saturday night, an area of large scale
ascent has now been able to push farther into the area helping to
support showers. Thunderstorms are possible with this as mucape
rises over 2000 j kg by 18z, surface dewpoints rise to over 65f
and 0-6 km shear rises to over 30 kts. Heavy rain will be possible
Saturday especially within any thunderstorms that form and if
cells can train across the same area.

Expect another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms
Sunday as a wave pushes in along the stalled front across the
region. More moisture, humidity, shear and instability will be
available for storms to be able to work with. Wouldn't be
surprised if this ends up being caused by an mcs. Behind Sunday's
chances for showers and storms, the Monday-Tuesday will have
another low pressure system passes by to our northwest and will be
able to push the warm front farther north. This will lower chances
for showers and possible thunder with weak to little concrete
forcing.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 143 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
dryVFR conditions are expected at the terminals this afternoon
into tonight as drier air continues to advect in wake of the early
morning convective complex. West winds gusting to near 25 knots
at times this afternoon should become light variable tonight. Mid
level clouds and low chances for showers then return Friday
morning in advance of a warm front.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Roller
short term... Roller
long term... Roller
aviation... Steinwedel
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 47 mi37 min SSW 5.1 G 7 65°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.0)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 66 mi37 min NE 1 G 1.9 64°F 47°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 70 mi43 min S 5.1 G 7 54°F 57°F1016.8 hPa47°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Last
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S12
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E11
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NW12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines Memorial Airport, MI9 mi42 minNW 15 G 2010.00 miFair75°F47°F37%1017.3 hPa
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI13 mi50 minWNW 8 G 1710.00 miFair73°F46°F38%1016.6 hPa
Elkhart Municipal, IN19 mi49 minWNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair73°F48°F41%1017.3 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN22 mi44 minWNW 1110.00 miFair73°F53°F50%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from HAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S8S10S10S11S7S7SW8SW17
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1 day agoE10E10
G17
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G16
SE8SE11
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S4SE6S6S13
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2 days agoNW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE5E5E8E9E9E7SE8SE9
G17
SE8E6E9E14
G18
E10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.