Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:55 AM CDT (05:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 858 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south late. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 25 kt late in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 20 to 25 kt easing to 15 to 20 kt late. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201708171015;;498880 FZUS53 KLOT 170158 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 858 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-171015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 170537
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1237 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Short term
209 pm cdt
through Thursday...

low pressure centered over the mid missouri valley this afternoon
will lift to northern wisconsin by midday tomorrow resulting in
active weather across northern illinois and northwest indiana
through tomorrow. This afternoon, a warm front is draped east from
the low center across iowa and northern illinois where dew points
have risen into the low 70s for many areas. Mid level lapse rates
aren't too terribly impressive this afternoon which is helping to
keep instability in check to some degree, but still expect
moderately unstable conditions of 1000-1500 j kg MLCAPE to
overspread the entire CWA through the afternoon. Broad ascent will
gradually overspread the area through the afternoon and evening
as upper ridge axis departs east with weak mid level height falls
begin moving overhead. An arcing band of showers have already
formed from near dvn southeast through pnt and expect intensity to
continue to increase this afternoon in response to increasing
forcing. 18z SPC mesoanalysis indicates deep layer shear is less
than 30kt across the area which should remain the case through at
least the remainder of the afternoon, then slightly stronger winds
aloft will move overhead this evening and tonight. Overall,
severe threat is low through the rest of the afternoon given the
submarginal shear, but cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
or two this evening. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Second area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over missouri
and kansas this evening in response to strengthening low level jet
ahead of a secondary low that forms near kansas city. Storms
should track northeast into central and parts of northern illinois
late this evening and overnight. Many of the high-res models have
trended farther south with overnight convection and have lowered
pops some in response. If trends continue to hold, pops may need
to be lowered further. Southward trend seems reasonable given the
expected orientation and position of the LLJ with the best forcing
focused south of our cwa.

Through the day Thursday, surface low will move from northern wi
into the upper peninsula of mi while a trailing cold front sweeps
across northern illinois. Depending on how quickly the area clears
tomorrow and destabilizes, there is some threat for thunderstorms
to redevelop along the front across the far eastern tier of
counties in northwest in early tomorrow afternoon. If this
happens, there is some potential storms could be severe, but
chances appear best just east of the cwa.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
209 pm cdt
Thursday night through Wednesday...

we dry out Thursday night as the upper level trough axis rotates
through. Slightly cooler and drier air moves in leading to a dry
day Friday. A secondary trough axis rotates through Friday night
through Saturday, and showers and storms may form in response to the
trough axis. Models disagree on how widespread precip will be
Friday night. The ECMWF is the most bullish while the GFS and nam
have precip focused south of i-80. Decided to keep a chance of
showers and storms across the forecast area.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal over the weekend and heat
builds back into the area. Dry conditions are expected for the
beginning of next week, and we may see 90s Monday.

The next significant chance of precip arrives Tuesday with an upper
level wave and surface cold front. Cooler air and an expansive
region of high pressure move in behind the front for mid week.

Jee

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

surface low pressure in southern mn early this morning will shift
northeastward over the upper great lakes by this evening. As it
does so, an associated cold front will shift across northern il
around midday, with a gusty westerly wind expected in its wake.

Expect gusts up around 26 kt this afternoon following the frontal
passage.

Another shot at some rain showers looks to return early this
morning (9-13z) as the main upper-level disturbance approaches
the area from the west. It does appear that thunder may be few
and far between with this batch of precip, so we have continued to
leave the mention for such out of the forecast at this time. A
short period of some MVFR CIGS could also develop over the area
overnight due to high lower-level moisture, but it does appear
likely that any lower CIGS would quickly improve after daybreak.

The main weather story for the rest of the day will then be the
breezy conditions expected.

Kjb

Marine
209 pm cdt
high pressure over the eastern great lakes will reach new england
this evening. Meanwhile a low pressure system over iowa will reach
the upper midwest by Thursday morning and then move over the western
great lakes Thursday night. Winds will become southeast and increase
to 30 kt especially over the northern half of the lake tonight as
the low approaches the region. Gusts to 30 kt are possible over the
northern half of the lake Thursday morning. The low's cold front
will swing across the lake Thursday evening night, and winds will
become west to 30 kt behind it.

Winds will diminish and become northwest Friday, and high pressure
builds over the great lakes Saturday. Winds will back to southwest
Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance then suggests a cold front will
slide down the lake Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

Jee

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-
lmz745... 11 am Thursday to 3 am Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi116 min S 15 79°F
OKSI2 3 mi116 min N 1.9 81°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi36 min SSW 26 G 32 80°F 73°F
45177 4 mi116 min 75°F
JAKI2 12 mi116 min SSW 7 80°F
45174 13 mi26 min S 16 G 19 78°F 73°F2 ft74°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi38 min S 14 G 18 79°F 1009.8 hPa73°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi76 min WSW 11 G 16 73°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi51 min S 11 G 19 80°F 1011.2 hPa
45170 38 mi26 min S 12 G 16 78°F 75°F1 ft73°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi36 min SSE 11 G 14 79°F 70°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi56 min S 15 G 27 72°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi63 minS 99.00 miOvercast80°F73°F79%1008.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi65 minS 117.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1008.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi64 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F96%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE5E5E4E4NE4E6E8E7E7E3SE7S86SE10S9
G16
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G18
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1 day agoSW6SW5W5W4W5W3W4NW5N4NE5N5NE7N6E9E11E12NE11NE11NE9N9NE9E8NE7NE7
2 days agoSE3CalmSE3S3S5CalmCalmS3CalmS4SW9W9W5SW8SW10
G15
SW9W8SW8SW8S5S6S5S6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.