Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 5:46 AM CST (11:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- Gary To Burns Harbor-burns Harbor To Michigan City- 328 Am Cst Wed Jan 24 2018
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Occasional flurries. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft this morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
LMZ741 Expires:201801241615;;918408 FZUS53 KLOT 240928 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 328 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>745-241615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 241112
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
512 am cst Wed jan 24 2018

Update
513 am cst
have issued a winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle causing
a light glaze on untreated surfaces, in effect until 9am cst. For
much of the overnight, it appeared there was sufficient ice
crystals in the clouds for mostly flurries as precipitation type
falling from the the stratus deck. However, in the last hour or
so, a substantial (10kft) dry layer aloft noted on the klot vwp
appears to have resulted in enough ice crystal loss for freezing
drizzle mixed in with flurries. Outside the office, over the past
hour, we went from dry pavement to a light glaze on surfaces, with
freezing drizzle occurring as of 5am. There have been reports of
numerous accidents on interstates, including some serious ones.

With the threat of icy roads continuing as the morning commute is
about to start, opted to quickly get a winter weather advisory
area wide.

As the next short-wave crossing the ms river arrives noted by
light echoes on regional radar mosaic, kdvn VWP shows little or
no intervening dry layer, suggesting that seeder-feeder should
allow transition back to very light snow or flurries will occur
this morning. There is uncertainty on how long this will take to
occur, so have freezing drizzle mention in the grids and the
advisory in effect until 15z 9am cst.

Castro

Short term
259 am cst
through tonight...

the main concern today is cloud cover trends and flurries light
snow potential. Regarding the flurries, short-wave disturbances
noted on W v imagery have been causing occasional flurries through
the night and even some very patchy drizzle mist at times. It also
appears that there may be some airplane seeding going on near ord
which has reported briefly lower visibility down to 1-2 miles, and
stronger radar echoes responsible seem to correlate with flight
paths. The next short-wave is approaching the ms river from
eastern ia and will translate across the area through mid
day early afternoon. Have kept occasional flurries mention during
much of this time and gradually end it from the west and northwest
later this morning. As previous afd update mentioned, seeder
feeder processes could assist despite drier layers noted on
soundings. Brief periods of steadier light snow are possible that
could knock down visibility slightly and even produce patchy
dustings, but feel that for most of the time that occasional
flurry mention will suffice for this activity.

Expansive stratus deck noted on goes-16 nightime microphysics rgb
covers much of the region, with primary hole in ovc appearing to
be over far NE ia, western wi and southeast mn and additional
stratus extending back well west of this. It's uncertain that the
patchy clearing of the low clouds will make it into the CWA and
overall have trended more pessimistic with sky trends today. It
appears the best chance for the low clouds to scatter to just mid
clouds during daylight hours would be in the western and northwest
cwa. Given the expectation of cloudy mostly cloudy conditions
much of the day, temperatures which have been held up overnight by
the ovc should conversely struggle to rise today and cut back
slightly by a degree or two from previous forecast, with still
low-mid 30s forecast highs. Lower level flow will turn
southwesterly tonight and strengthen, so do expect the stratus to
finally lift northeast assuming it doesn't clear much during the
day. Light southerly winds shouldn't be an impediment to some
radiational cooling to low-mid 20s for most of the area. Coolest
locations should be in northeast boone, mchenry and lake counties
in the upper teens to around 20 due to the deeper snow cover in
that area.

Castro

Long term
328 am cst
Thursday through Tuesday...

our up and down temperature roller coaster will continue through
day 7. A warm front lifting north on Thursday, mostly sunny skies
and stout warm advection is expected to support temperatures
rising well into the 40s for much of the area. The possible
noteworthy exception to this is for portions of far northern
illinois that have solid snow cover from Monday night. Since
southerly winds should stay generally less than 10 mph and mixing
won't be all that deep given strong inversion at 850 mb, high
temperatures from northeast boone across the northern half or 2 3
of mchenry and lake counties stand to be limited to the mid to
upper 30s. After a quiet and mild for late january Thursday night
with strengthening southerly winds, Friday remains on track to be
unseasonably mild with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

Southwest winds will become strong and gusty and in fact if mixing
is deep enough, gusts up to 35 mph or even 40 mph are possible.

Have continued with highs in the lower 50s across most of the
area, perhaps slightly limited in areas with snow cover.

Guidance continues to vary on the extent of light rain coverage
with a southwest flow disturbance Friday night into Saturday, with
operational ECMWF a bit more on the bullish side. There is however
decent agreement on the rain focusing southeast of i-55, so
maintained low-mid chance pops for central illinois into parts of
nw indiana. Areas northwest could remain dry or mostly dry. The
unseasonably mild conditions will continue Friday night into
Saturday ahead of the next cold frontal passage, which will come
through Saturday night. The models have trended back a bit
stronger with the next cold shot driven by approach of strong
~1040 mb high arriving Sunday into Monday. Will also need to
watch for magntitude of northern stream clipper type wave
embedded in long wave trough, as some recent model runs, namely
the ECMWF indicate light snow snow shower potential with this
outside of any lake effect snow which should be mainly east.

Monday will feature near to slightly below normal high temperatures
under the strong surface high, with the pendulum then briefly
swinging back to above normal for Tuesday-Wednesday as the high
shifts east. Beyond day 7, longer range guidance is pointing to
the return of a predominantly colder pattern late next week. In
the transition period, depending on how the surface and mid-upper
pattern evolves, a wintry system is possible somewhere over the
region.

Castro

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

primary aviation concern this morning is fzdz threat, with lesser
concern being the duration of MVFR stratus lingering.

Flurries and very light snow grains have recently begun changing
to freezing drizzle over the western and southern chicago suburbs.

This trend will likely continue northeast into the other terminals
and have added fzdz to the tafs through mid morning. Seeder-feeder
from higher clouds moving east into NW il should allow fzdz to
transition back to very light snow or flurries by mid morning.

Otherwise, stratus deck is unlikely to clear tonight as light flow
and low Sun angle don't favor significant changes in the areal
coverage of the stratus which extends north to central wi and west
into eastern ia. As low level southerly flow off the deck
increases tonight, should see stratus deck be blown north out of
the area.

- izzi

Marine
126 am cst
fairly tranquil weather on the lake the next couple days as a
ridge of high pressure gradually moves across the region. Later
Thursday night into Friday southerly winds will strengthen, with a
period of southerly gales possible Friday, particularly northern
lake michigan. Unseasonably mild air moving over cold lake will
likely limit the magnitude of the winds some and may keep winds
just shy of gale force over southern portions of the lake where
stability issues will be greatest. A pair of cold fronts will move
across the lake Friday night and then the second Saturday night.

The stronger winds and more substantial cold air push will occur
behind the second front later Saturday night into Sunday.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Winter weather advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-
ilz010-ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-
ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039 until 9 am Wednesday.

In... Winter weather advisory... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019
until 9 am Wednesday.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi106 min WNW 9.9 27°F
OKSI2 3 mi106 min N 2.9 29°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi26 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 28°F 23°F
CNII2 7 mi31 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 28°F 20°F
JAKI2 12 mi106 min NNW 6 29°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi46 min W 7 G 8.9 28°F 1022.2 hPa (+0.7)22°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi66 min WNW 8 G 9.9 26°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi46 min WNW 9.9 G 15 29°F 1023 hPa (+0.6)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi26 min WNW 13 G 14 27°F 24°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi46 min WNW 6 G 8.9 26°F 1022.4 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi53 minN 57.00 miLight Snow28°F23°F81%1024 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi55 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast28°F21°F75%1023.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi54 minNW 410.00 miOvercast28°F23°F81%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8NW14
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NW14NW13NW12
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NW10NW10NW14NW11NW8NW13NW9NW12NW12NW9NW7NW5NW6NW7NW7W5NW6N7
1 day agoE3NE4E7S11S19
G25
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SW9SW9SW7SW4W4W9W10
2 days ago--S4S6S7S4S3CalmS4S4CalmS3E5E4E4E4SE5CalmS7S9S6S3E5SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.