Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 10:29 AM CDT (15:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201905261600;;493045 Fzus53 Klot 261442 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 942 Am Cdt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740-741-261600- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- 942 Am Cdt Sun May 26 2019
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 261141
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
641 am cdt Sun may 26 2019

Short term
336 am cdt
through Monday...

the severe threat has diminished across my far southern counties,
so the watch is being dropped early. In spite of this, we are not
done with the showers and thunderstorms. Another area of showers,
and thunderstorms is currently ongoing to our west-southwest over
portions of southern ia and northern mo. This activity is
associated with a convectively enhanced short wave disturbance
over northwestern mo. The east-northeastward track of this feature
should track in right across northern il this morning. As a
result, expect the showers and storms ongoing to our west-
southwest to continue to shift northeastward over much of the area
by daybreak. Periods of showers, with some embedded thunderstorms
will continue across the area for a few hours this morning, before
this activity begins to end by midday early afternoon. This should
result in mainly dry weather over much of the area for this
afternoon.

While it will be drying out across the area this afternoon,
temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than they were
on Saturday. This is due to northeasterly winds that will be in
place following a cold frontal passage this morning. Expect highs
to generally be in the low 70s inland over northern il, and
generally in the low to mid 60s along the lake shore.

Following a quiet night across the area tonight, concerns begin
to shift towards our next period of possible strong to severe
thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall on Monday. A potent upper
level disturbance, currently seen in the water vapor imagery
digging southward across the west coast, is expected to induce the
ejection of another disturbance over southern ca. As this
southern ca impulse is ejected out the southwestern conus, it will
race northeastward towards the upper midwest on Monday, resulting
in todays cold front being driven back northward over the area,
and essentially allowing the warm, humid and unstable airmass to
return to the area. Periods of thunderstorms will be likely in the
regime, possibly in two waves: one in the morning, and another,
potentially severe in the afternoon and evening.

The main uncertainty at this juncture revolves around the
potential impacts from the morning showers and storms hindering
the northward progress of the surface front into Monday afternoon.

This would have consequences on the extent of severe
thunderstorms in northern il Monday afternoon and evening. Current
indications suggest that the surface front could end up around
the i-80 corridor Monday afternoon. Assuming that this is the
case, the thermodyamics and kinematics will be supportive of
severe thunderstorms, which could include all hazardous (strong
winds, large hail and possible tornados), especially during the
afternoon and evening. The threat of flash flooding will also need
to be monitored with this activity as very heavy rainfall from
training thunderstorms will also be possible into Monday evening.

Kjb

Long term
336 am cdt
Monday night through Saturday...

active weather pattern will continue into the first part of the
long term period. Monday night, showers and thunderstorms from
Monday afternoon will probably linger into the evening hours. Best
chances should be northern CWA and during the evening with waning
coverage chances of showers and storms overnight as shortwave
passing to our north moves off to the east with weakening forcing
and some modest height rising in the wake of the shortwave.

Convection Monday night could augment the ultimate location of the
effective surface boundary Tuesday. This could have huge impact on
our daytime temperatures, in particular northern CWA and near the
lake. South of the boundary, it should be warm and humid with
highs climbing into the 80s. To the north of the boundary,
temperatures may hold in the 60s with 50s possible near the lake.

The gem and NAM have the boundary north of the il wi border which
would mean all of our CWA is in the warm sector, while the ecmwf
and GFS have the boundary over northern il during the day. It is
impossible to say with any degree of confidence at this distance
where the boundary will be Tuesday, so didn't make any adjustments
from the blended model temps winds, but a tighter gradient in
temps is expected with warmer high temps to the south.

Can't rule out convection in the area during the day Tuesday, but
with some weak shortwave ridging, suspect that the daytime Tuesday
could end up being mostly precip-free. Upstream during the day
Tuesday, a powerful mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to emerge out
into the central plains with fairly widespread severe thunderstorm
development forecast over the eastern portions of the central
plains during the afternoon. Convection is forecast to evolve into
an extensive north-south oriented squall line that will head
toward the mid-mississippi valley Tuesday night. This activity
probably wouldn't make it into our CWA until after midnight
Tuesday night and given the timing the severe threat with this
line is more uncertainty due to the time of day. However, given
the strength of the cyclone and synoptic forcing, can't rule out
a severe threat lingering into the overnight hours. In addition,
strengthening warm air advection Tuesday evening could result in
addition convection developing over the area out ahead of the
squall line. If this were to happen, then the threat of flash
flooding could become quite serious, but we're still pretty far
out and have a lot of time to watch model trends with respect to
this potential.

This strong mid-level cyclone and associated mid-upper level
closed circulation are forecast to move eastward into the mid-
mississippi valley Wednesday, with the system likely to be
weakening to an open wave. Models notoriously struggle with these
type of strong closed, cut-off lows, so confidence isn't high on
the evolution of things, but some potential for showers and
thunderstorms exists even into Wednesday.

Should see a couple day break in the active weather with a couple
days in a row with little or no precipitation possible Thursday
into Friday and possibly even into the weekend, but by the weekend
some pretty big spread develops in the models.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

complex situation this morning with wind shift to NE early this
morning at ord gyy mdw. Some potential exists for winds to shift
back to west or southwest for a time early this morning as
weakening meso-low associated with decaying MCS moves across
northern il. Could also see some showers through mid-late morning
with this feature, though anticipate the coverage and intensity of
the showers will be decreasing this morning. If there is a wind
shift back to west southwest then it would likely be a temporary
shift with a transition back to northeast expected by early
afternoon. If the shift to W SW doesn't occur, then NE or E winds
will persist through the TAF cycle. Any patchy MVFR CIGS early
this morning would likely lift toVFR later this morning withVFR
conditions expected the remainder of the TAF period.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi90 min SSE 1 60°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi40 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
CNII2 7 mi30 min N 5.1 G 11 60°F 51°F
JAKI2 12 mi90 min N 4.1 G 6 59°F
45174 13 mi30 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.3)53°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi42 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 1016.9 hPa52°F
45186 30 mi30 min N 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 51°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi50 min N 5.1 G 6 60°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 1017.6 hPa
45170 38 mi30 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 55°F51°F
45187 38 mi30 min W 1.9 G 3.9 52°F 49°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi40 min W 9.9 G 9.9 57°F 53°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi30 min N 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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SW10
G15
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W6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi37 minNNE 610.00 miLight Rain64°F53°F68%1016.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi39 minN 310.00 miLight Rain63°F52°F68%1016.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi38 minN 310.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F51°F63%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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W9
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W11W9SW6SW6SW5SW7W5W5W5SW10
G16
W10NW6SW10NE6NE5NE6
1 day agoSE7SE5
G15
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43NE4E5E5SE4SE6S5SW12
G20
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SW8SW14
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W12W14
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2 days agoW17
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G30
W14
G26
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W11
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W10NW10W5W4W5CalmNE5NE8E8E8E9N13N9NE8E12SE13
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.