Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:27 PM CDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 12:35AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 926 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 19 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201806201015;;807758 FZUS53 KLOT 200226 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 926 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-201015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200245
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
945 pm cdt Tue jun 19 2018

Update
944 pm cdt
some fairly significant changes made to the overnight and early
Wednesday portions of the forecast this evening, primarily to
greatly reduce pops over much of the forecast area.

Earlier strong convection across the southern parts of the cwa
appears to have pushed the surface front south into central il at
mid-evening. Recent surface analysis places the boundary from
roughly central iowa, southeast into central illinois and to just
north of indianapolis. Thunderstorms were generally south and
southeast of the CWA at this time, focused along residual outflow
and at least partly associated with a remnant MCV from this
afternoon. Rap analysis does continue to depict a synoptic mid-
level short wave trough propagating slowly east across the region,
though convectively disturbed low-level flow from the surface up
through 850 mb is generally from the north. In the absence of
stronger southerly low level flow, potential for additional
significant convective showers and thunderstorms appears fairly
low. Have lowered pops significantly overnight, keeping higher
chance pops across the far southeast through midnight, while
maintaining only a slight chance mention elsewhere through the
night. Have also lowered pops through the morning hours of
Wednesday, as forcing remains negligible in the wake of the
overnight mid-level short wave passage. Left Wednesday afternoon
pops alone for now.

Skies should remain mostly cloudy overnight, especially in the
east and southeast parts of the forecast area. Any scattering of
clouds would likely fill back in with stratus and or fog, given
moist boundary layer conditions and wet ground in many spots.

Also, lowered min temps a bit overnight across far northeast il,
where modest north-northeast winds off the lake have already
lowered readings into the lower 60's.

Updated digital grid text forecast products already available.

Ratzer

Short term
208 pm cdt
through Wednesday...

main concerns for the short term forecast period will be the
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms.

As of 2pm cdt, thunderstorms are becoming more organized INVOF a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary currently analyzed along the
kankakee and illinois rivers. Latest radar imagery indicates
increasing coverage in this area and expect that coverage should
continue to increase through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. Pwats INVOF the boundary remain close to 2 inches and
the ilx 12z sounding shows wly winds at 20kt in the 925-850mb layer.

Latest indices from the SPC mesoanalysis show downdraft cape
values of 1200 j kg with a bulls-eye of +4 for the non-supercell
tornado parameter over iroquois county. These parameters along
with the high moisture content would suggest the potential for
locally heavy downpours and strong wind gust potential. The area
remains under a marginal risk for severe wx and a slight risk for
excessive rainfall flash flooding. Portions of the area, generally
south of interstate 80 will need to be monitored closely for
possible strong wind gusts or flash flooding. While much of the
activity is expected to be along and south of the front, generally
south of i- 80, there is still a chance for some isold shra tsra
this afternoon evening to the north of i-80, but coverage is
likely to be sparse and any thunder not as strong to the storms to
the south.

The general trend for convective activity should be to become more
suppressed to the south as high pressure over the upper mississippi
valley and western great lakes expands across the NRN il in and lake
michigan. Nely flow will dominate at the sfc, drawing cooler air
inland into nern il in bringing increasing low stratus and fog
inland into the chicago metro area. Under the spreading high
pressure, the warm, moist conditions will be forced to the south and
temperatures across the area are expected to be quite a bit lower
than the past week, with highs tomorrow ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s along the lake front to the middle 70s inland north of
i-80 and low 80s south of i-80. Showers and thunderstorms will
still be likely tomorrow, especially in the warmer, more humid air
mass south of i-80.

Long term
224 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

low pressure developing over the plains and a stalled out frontal
boundary extending east from the low will be two of the key players
locally for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Generally
weak flow aloft and marginal lapse rates would limit the concern for
severe weather and perhaps even thunderstorms through this period,
as would the cooler northerly flow for most of the area on the north
side of the surface boundary. Pwats do however remain on the higher
side, toward the 90th percentile, so showers that manage to develop
along the boundary could have the potential to produce heavy rain.

This will continue to be monitored especially in southern portions
of the forecast area nearer the expected frontal location. The
existing wpc excessive rainfall outlooks cover this nicely.

With mostly cloudy skies prevailing through this period, expect a
reduced diurnal temperature swing, with daytime highs at times well
below normal for some locations and overnight lows a bit warmer than
normal. The coolest locations will of course be along the lake in
areas of onshore flow.

Models generally agree on slowly moving the stacked low across or
just south of the area on Friday. They then show a weak ridge
building in from the west through the first half of the weekend,
with the local area initially remaining in the drier and cooler flow
on its easterly side. Confidence gets much lower later in the
weekend and into early next week, but a weak disturbance in the
upper cyclonic flow could bring another chance of precip to the area
Sunday, with upper ridging appearing to become more established by
Monday.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

the main forecast concern now focuses on the low CIGS and vsbys
likely to shift over all the terminals within the next 1 to 2
hours as cooler air shifts south in the wake of boundary shifting
south into central il.

While there will be showers around this evening it does appear
that the thunder threat should remain south of the terminals. Rain
showers could linger into the early overnight hours as a decent
mid-level disturbance gradually shifts overhead around midnight.

Also can't rule out a thunderstorm as this disturbance shifts
overhead, but this will likely be localized and certainly not
enough confidence to put the mention in the taf.

Otherwise, expect low CIGS to continue to overspread the area. As
of this writing ord was already in the ifr and this should
continue to be the trend through the evening. It appears that cigs
could drop into the 300-400 foot range later this evening and
overnight and into early Wednesday morning. We will also likely
have some lower vsbys down around 2 miles tonight as fog shifts
inland off the lake. Conditions should improve through the
morning, withVFR conditions likely to return to the area by
Wednesday afternoon.

Expect a north-northeasterly wind through the period.

Kjb

Marine
311 pm cdt
despite persistent onshore flow from the north or northeast the
nearshore waves appear to stay below small craft levels for the
remainder of the week. This is due to the light wind speeds and
fairly short fetch resulting from varying wind directions over
the lake. If speeds increase or a longer fetch manages to develop
then wave heights could approach advisory thresholds.

A center of low pressure moving through the area Friday and
Saturday will bring a more variable period of wind directions and
wave heights through the weekend.

Lenning

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745-
lmz777-lmz779 until 10 am Wednesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi88 min NNW 8 63°F
OKSI2 3 mi88 min NW 1 G 1.9 66°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi38 min NNW 17 G 18 62°F 62°F
45177 4 mi148 min 64°F1 ft
CNII2 7 mi28 min NW 2.9 G 14 65°F 62°F
JAKI2 12 mi88 min W 4.1 G 5.1 66°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi40 min W 1.9 G 7 63°F 1011.6 hPa63°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi48 min N 18 G 22 60°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi48 min Calm G 0 65°F 1011.5 hPa
45170 38 mi28 min S 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 70°F1 ft67°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi38 min S 2.9 G 2.9 67°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi28 min N 18 G 20 60°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi35 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1011 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi37 minN 810.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1011.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi36 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast65°F62°F90%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE10E7NE6NE7N4NE4N5N4CalmSE3N5N6NE7NE7E8E10NE10N7NE6N7N5N8N5
1 day agoSW10S9SW9SW10SW9SW8SW9SW9SW11SW14W11
G19
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SW11N12NW15
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NW7NW6
2 days agoS7S8SW8SW9SW9SW8SW8SW8SW8SW7SW8W12SW9SW10S9SW14
G21
SW13SW15SW12SW11
G17
SW11SW10SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.