Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:57PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:25 PM CDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 8:42PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 253 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 kt late. Rain showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt in the afternoon. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest gales to 35 kt becoming west to 30 kt after midnight. Rain showers likely in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ741 Expires:201710240315;;301361 FZUS53 KLOT 231953 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-240315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 232338
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
638 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017

Short term
212 pm cdt
through tonight...

while the rain is ending across much of northeastern il at this
time, expect more rain to develop over the area tonight into
Tuesday. This will occur as a significant upper trough digs
southeastward over the central CONUS and couples with the
disturbance currently driving a weaker area of surface low
pressure over northern indiana. Expect this surface low to
undergo explosive development tonight into Tuesday morning as it
shifts over northern portions of lower michigan. In fact, the
central pressure of the surface low is likely to deepen over 20
mb, to near 980 mb by early Tuesday morning as the low shifts to
near the straits of mackinac. With moisture wrapping around the
back side of this surface low, and a closing off mid-level low,
expect periods of showers over much of the area late tonight and
continuing on Tuesday.

West-northwesterly winds are also expected to increase over the
area late tonight in response to the rapid deepening of the
surface low. These winds will remain gusty over the area on
Tuesday.

Kjb

Long term
302 pm cdt
Tuesday through Monday...

a traditional late autumn pattern will be in place the remainder
of the week, with multiple large systems in the region providing
wind-driven temperature swings... Most of them being cold surges.

The deep, almost bombing low on Tuesday referenced in the short
term discussion will move little during the day, providing a
sustained cold advection pattern with almost no temperature climb.

In fact some places could easily drop a few degrees into the low
40s during the late morning into afternoon as areas of deformation
rain rotate southeastward. Plenty of support for moderate rain
showers, with maybe the far southern and western CWA remaining a
bit more scattered.

As for Tuesday's northwest wind speeds, the synoptic setup with a
sub 985mb low and cold advection support at least frequent gusts
to 35+ mph. Depending on just how deep the boundary layer is
within the clouds and rain, gusts approaching 45 mph are
plausible. Sometimes guidance can underdo wind speeds with these
rapidly deepening lows. The pressure gradient tightens the most
to our north where wind advisory criteria (45+ mph gusts) is
presently most favored.

The low will start to pull east Tuesday evening with rain showers
inching their way eastward. Temperatures will be dropping and a
quickly decreasing freezing level, but likely there will not be
an overlap of rain and cool enough enough boundary layer
temperatures for any wet flakes to mix in Tuesday night. However,
will need to keep an eye on any back side short wave energy
Wednesday morning, as that could bring some spotty light
rain wet flakes mix to eastern wisconsin and far northeast
illinois depending on how far west it were to track (presently
favored a little east of our cwa).

Temperatures on Tuesday night just by advection alone will dip
into the mid 30s, and in the west with clearing could see to
freezing or even a degree or two below. Given the winds persisting,
no frost mentioned at this juncture.

As the upper trough departs eastward, a warm advection regime
quickly spreads into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The
gfs 850mb temperatures of 14c are quite a bit warmer anomalous
than the ec's 9c, and have gone a middle road toward highs with
lower to mid 60s.

Global guidance is in fairly strong agreement for four days out
in bringing the next upper low southward into the western lakes
region by later Friday, with it's surface cold advection
encompassing the area as Friday progresses. The models then spread
markedly on how quickly the system departs. Depending on this and
just how far south wraparound moisture reaches will dictate how
long rain shower chances persist and how cool Saturday is. Based
on the solutions and conceptual model, there is some possibility
of mixing in wet snow flakes, maybe more so off of lake michigan
into far northwest indiana Saturday night.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

redevelopment of rain and MVFR ceilings and gusty west-northwest
winds are the main aviation forecast concerns this evening through
Tuesday.

After a brief interruption from the rain and low ceilings, another
cold front was crossing the mississippi river and will push east
across the terminals this evening. Light rain was developing
across northwest and west central il with the front as of 2330z
and this will spread in with the front, though withVFR vis cigs
initially. West-northwest winds will increase behind the front
however, with the gradient tightening in response to deepening
surface low pressure across lower michigan, in addition to the
colder low level air streaming into the region. As rain becomes
more widespread during the late evening overnight hours, MVFR cigs
and vsbys are expected to develop. These conditions will persist
through much of Tuesday, with spotty ifr CIGS possible, though
model guidance is in pretty good agreement in maintaining lower
end MVFR in the 1000-1300 foot range and vsbys 3-5sm. Rain should
begin to dissipate by mid-late afternoon, with a corresponding
improvement in CIGS to higher MVFR and eventuallyVFR Tuesday
night.

As for winds, the strengthening pressure gradient and steep low
level lapse rates look to support sustained winds 15-20 kts and
gusts 25+ kts from roughly 300-320 degrees Tuesday. If boundary
layer mixing is a little deeper, 30+ kt gusts possible. Winds
should gradually diminish later in the day evening.

Ratzer

Marine
315 pm cdt
a very active period over the lake this week, with high impact
conditions late tonight through Tuesday night.

A phasing low pressure system will significantly deepen with its
center moving north to sault ste marie by late tonight. The
rapidly tightening pressure gradient, coupled with cold advection,
will support gales developing across the north tonight and then
across the entire lake on Tuesday. Storm conditions with 50 kt
gusts are expected across the north and parts of the central
Tuesday and Tuesday evening. In the very far north toward beaver
island and eastward -- underneath the low center -- winds will be
less. However they will sharply pick up immediately to the
west southwest of there, so have included the entire north in a
gale warning. Significant waves of 12-16 ft with some higher are
expected across the eastern half of the lake.

As for the illinois and indiana nearshore, strong west to
northwest winds will spread over Tuesday morning. Gusts during the
late morning through early evening will at least reach occasional
gales, but may actually be more consistent. Thus have held onto
the gale watch as of 3 pm.

Winds will briefly turn southerly into Thursday ahead of the next
low. This will drop southeast over lake michigan on Friday, with a
cold front passing over and a wind shift to northwest. Gales look
probable at this time for a period that could last into Saturday.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779... 9 am Tuesday to 9 am Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 1 pm Tuesday.

Gale watch... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 1 pm
Tuesday to 4 am Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... 7 am Tuesday to 1
pm Tuesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi86 min W 9.9 52°F
OKSI2 3 mi86 min NW 2.9 55°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi36 min W 12 G 13 54°F 49°F
CNII2 7 mi26 min W 6 G 14 53°F 48°F
JAKI2 12 mi86 min W 2.9 53°F
45174 13 mi16 min W 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 57°F2 ft49°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi38 min 1004 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi46 min WNW 5.1 G 7 52°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi46 min W 16 G 19 55°F 1005.1 hPa
45170 38 mi16 min WNW 16 G 19 54°F 57°F5 ft49°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi36 min W 21 G 23 54°F 49°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi26 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1004.1 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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N10
G17
N12
G17
N10
G14
N10
G13
N10
G13
N9
G13
N9
G13
N11
G14
NW9
G14
NW12
G17
N14
G19
NW17
G22
NW14
G22
N12
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N12
G16
N12
G15
N10
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N11
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NW4
G9
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1 day
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SE11
G16
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G16
S16
G20
S12
S11
G20
S12
G17
S10
G15
S10
S9
G16
S7
G10
S9
S13
G16
S12
G17
S12
G19
S12
G18
S14
G21
S11
G16
S12
G18
S11
G20
S11
G15
S12
G22
NW8
G17
NW13
G20
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G15
2 days
ago
S6
G11
S9
G13
S9
G13
S8
G13
S6
G9
S9
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G12
S7
G10
S8
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G10
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G12
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G13
S8
G13
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G14
S11
G15
S13
G17
S11
G14
S10
G16
S13
G18
S16
G23
S11
G15
S19
G24
S14
G20
S9
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi33 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1004.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi35 minW 410.00 miOvercast53°F44°F72%1004.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi34 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F46°F80%1004.5 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE11NE13N7N8N8N9N10N7N8N9N10N10
G17
N8N8N9N9N9N9NW9NW9W7W8W6
1 day agoS11S15
G25
S13
G18
S13
G21
S12
G21
S13S12S14
G20
S12S12S8S10S13S12
G20
S11
G23
S15
G23
S12
G20
S18
G23
S14
G22
S14
G24
SW12NW18
G25
N17N6
2 days agoS9S9S9S10S10S10S13
G19
S10S9S9S8S7S9S12S13
G19
S9S10S12S15
G23
S14
G26
S15
G23
S15
G22
S18S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.