Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:31PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:07 AM CST (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 922 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this evening, and 5 to 10 kt near daybreak. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 kt becoming variable in the early afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
LMZ741 Expires:201811141115;;271197 FZUS53 KLOT 140322 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 922 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-141115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 140900
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
300 am cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term
300 am cst
through Thursday night...

the main forecast concerns during the period will focus around
the chances for some accumulating snow over portions of eastern il
and northwestern in on Thursday.

Surface high pressure and clear skies have allowed temperatures to
become quiet cold across the region early this morning, with
temperatures now in the the mid teens to the low 20s. Expect this
surface ridge of high pressure to dominate todays weather. This
should result in light winds, mainly sunny skies, and continued
cool weather. Expect highs today to top out in the low to mid 30s.

Clouds will begin to increase from the south tonight in response
to the approach of our next storm system. The storm system of
interest is the upper low now sitting over the ARKLATEX region.

Forecast guidance continues to track this upper low east-
northeastward across the ozarks today, and then to the lower ohio
valley by Thursday evening. While this track will remain well to
our south, a well defined trough of warm air aloft (trowal)
rapping around the northern periphery of the upper low will likely
drive an extensive area of precipitation north of the track. This
area of precipitation will also likely be aided by a fairly broad
deformation zone, which could result in a decent southwest to
northeastward oriented band of 700 to 500 mb frontogenesis
developing on Thursday as far north as my east central il and
northwestern in counties. Model guidance has become a bit more
insistent that this could occur, which would mean that
precipitation on Thursday could be as far north as the chicago
area.

Given the temperature profile most, if not all, of the
precipitation would fall in the form of snow, especially within
the area of higher rates. At the current time, it appears the best
chance for any accumulating snow will remain south of chicago,
but possibly not by much. Anywhere roughly along and south of a
pontiac to valparaiso in line could experience 1 to 3 inches
(possibly locally higher) of wet snow Thursday. However, snow
amounts, particularly on road surfaces will be tricky. Surface
temperatures are expected to hover around freezing during the
event on Thursday, and as a result much of the accumulations could
be confined mainly to grassy and elevated structures. However, if
the band of frontogenesis remains strong enough into the area,
precipitation rates could be higher, which would result in some
accumulations on area roadways as well. This potential will have
to be monitored.

The storm system will quickly shift east of the area by Thursday
evening, so any snow will end.

Kjb

Long term
253 pm cst
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

continued below normal temperatures through the weekend are the
main story, though the likelihood of at least some light snow
Thursday in the southeast CWA (south of i-80, east of i-57) is
also to note. Minor accumulations are probable for part of that
area. Finally, there is a chance of light to moderate snow Friday
night and or Saturday.

At 12z Wednesday, the 500mb isobaric surface shows a positively
tilted trough over the southern great plains and midwest regions.

As the day progresses, and with a strong upper level polar jet,
the base of that trough detaches into a closed low by 21z. The
high pressure that was dominating much of the day Wednesday begins
to move east. At 12z Thursday, the low pressure at the surface
over the southeast u.S. Begins to curl cyclonically around that
upper level closed low, bringing with it cloudy skies and the
potential for precipitation to enter the southeast CWA during the
day Thursday, especially the afternoon. Model guidance agrees on
wraparound warm and moist conveyor belt into the far eastern and
southeastern cwa, though the forcing isentropic lift is not
particularly strong. So at this time, the potential for heavy
precipitation remains to the east and southeast of the cwa. In
addition, there should be a sharp cutoff in precipitation on the
northwest side of this system. Along and northwest of i-55, it is
likely to remain dry, and even sunny and mid 40s toward rockford
on Thursday afternoon.

The NAM and GFS show the atmospheric profile in the southeast cwa
on Thursday close to freezing. Even if temperatures are slightly
above freezing, it is still likely that it will fall as snow, with
up to one to two inches possible in parts of northwest indiana
(mainly benton and jasper counties) by late day Thursday. With the
recent cold conditions, it is possible to have some light
accumulation on paved surfaces. Precipitation should be pulling
away early Thursday evening. By Friday 12z, high pressure at the
surface begins to fill back in briefly.

The long wave trough sprawled across canada and the northern u.S.

Will again have a surge southward into the weekend. In advance of
that though, slight warming of the lower troposphere on Friday
should push temperatures into the mid 40s if sunny, apart from
the far east and southeast which may have some new light snow
cover. The surface cold front is expected to move through Friday
night or early Saturday.

As the upper trough advances into the midwest and great lakes to
start the weekend, there is semblance in GFS and ec solutions of
a sheared short wave or two riding around its periphery within the
right entrance region to the upper jet. This would be an area of
enhanced mid-level baroclinicity behind the surface cold front, so
certainly the idea of a translating axis of light to moderate
snow somewhere in the region makes synoptic sense. But with
mesoscale forcing being the driver on placement, confidence is low
if that will move over our area. The 12z GFS certainly would
favor that on Saturday, with 0.20-0.45" of liquid equivalent qpf,
while the same run of the ec has very little. The cmc is in-
between. So will be something to watch. For now have increased
snow chances some in-line with blended guidance.

Highs this weekend look to be in the lower half of the 30s with
lows dependent on clouds. High pressure will spread over the area
on Monday before possibly some 40s for the middle of the holiday
week.

Mtf swaney

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

lights winds & clear skies through the TAF cycle.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi128 min NNW 9.9 22°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi38 min NW 14 G 17 24°F 12°F
CNII2 7 mi23 min NW 8.9 G 8.9 24°F 13°F
JAKI2 12 mi128 min WNW 4.1 G 7 24°F
45174 13 mi28 min NNW 14 G 18 24°F 47°F3 ft16°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi38 min W 4.1 G 7 21°F 1032.7 hPa12°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi28 min NW 7 G 9.9 19°F
45186 30 mi28 min N 18 22°F 43°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi28 min NNW 6 G 8 29°F 1032.8 hPa
45187 38 mi28 min 23°F 44°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi68 min NW 8 G 9.9 19°F 1032.8 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi75 minWNW 410.00 miFair20°F10°F65%1035.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi77 minWNW 510.00 miFair20°F10°F68%1034.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair19°F9°F65%1034.7 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW11NW16NW14NW10N13NW10NW10NW6NW7W9NW8NW10W8W5W4W4W5W6W4W5NW5NW4NW7
1 day agoNW7N7N10N6N9N11N11N7NW7N8NW8NW7NW10NW11N9NW12N13N12N12NW12NW11NW14NW11N12
2 days agoS9S9S8S7S9
G18
S11SW11S11S9
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SW10SW8
G20
W8W6SW6SW5SW4W3W3CalmCalmW3NW6NW3NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.