Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 11:02 PM   Moonset 6:55 AM

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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny through early afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots veering south toward daybreak. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Tuesday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KIWX 261901 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 301 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm. 80 degrees will be possible both weekend days.

- Periodic chances for rain and storms are expected between this afternoon and next week with tonight and Monday having the greatest chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

In a decoupling jet scenario with the Pacific jet taking over, an upper low deepens and drifts northeast from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains between this afternoon and Saturday. During this time, the warm front pushes through the area later this afternoon and tonight. Saturation appears fairly quick this afternoon and evening on model time-sections despite Td depressions between 20 and 30F. It is interesting to see much of the omega leaning westward with much of the large ascent and mid level vorticity staying there as well. It isn't until later tonight/early Saturday that the large ascent shifts eastward likely meaning rainfall will be focused westward as well. These leans are noticeable on the PWAT moisture content as well, as to where the maximums lie. Despite the 1 to 3 SDs above normal, it still appears the lack of instability and forcing tonight point to lesser QPF output, which appear to stay less than 0.25 aside from counties west of IN-31 where closer to 0.5" may be more in reach.

For the weekend, it appears there will be an opportunity to tap into effective shear during the morning hours, and with instability available, severe weather is possible. The main threat with that appears to strong winds and perhaps a stray spin up. Hail appears to be a lesser threat given the moist low levels during this time.
Another threat for thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, but the shear appears to be a little bit more sporadic and there's some question about how much instability might be left over at that point. We do actually get 60 degree dew points into the area during the afternoon and low level temperatures surpass the teens Celsius.
With some mixing, highs will be able to get into the 70s allowing for a warm day. Sunday has some instability around and a weak area of vorticity may be able to tap into it to create some thunderstorms during the morning. But dry air follows allowing for a rain-free afternoon. 70s and perhaps 80 degree highs will be in play for Sunday.

A cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. There is some shear to work with, although it appears to diminish by Monday morning. The moisture axis appears to stall out on Monday and may be able to refire in the I-69 corridor on east during the afternoon. Initial model output indicates some shear and instability will be available for showers and storms as well.

Some drying out appears likely for Tuesday morning behind the cold front. The ECMWF shows a dry solution as opposed to GFS/GEM which hold on to some precipitation. Perhaps they are keying into a warm front-like feature that rises north during the afternoon to form showers. Based on its history in these events, will lean towards the ECMWF at least with messaging. More confidence can be had with precipitation occurring in the area later Tuesday night as a shortwave moving through in the flow coincides with a cold front passage. Thunderstorms are also possible with both instability and shear present to be tapped into. It then appears that a break in the unsettled weather can be forecast after a cold front moves through Thursday night. Temperatures in the 70s will still continue through this period with Friday having a good chance to return to cooler temperatures. Once again, NBM probability of 1 inch in 24 hours is below 20 percent in any one period through this unsettled time frame indicating its sporadic nature and that its floor is low as far as QPF is concerned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong low level moisture advection will continue to work across northern Indiana through the late afternoon hours. The subcloud layer will remain quite dry which should limit available instability. An overall diminishing trend with incoming precip shield is possible, but would expect at least KSBN to receive a few hours of light rain showers this afternoon into early evening. Low level jet will ramp up this evening allowing a secondary moisture advective surge in the 04Z-06Z timeframe.
This should also coincide with an upper level short wave in southwest upper flow lifting northeast out of MO/southern IL to provide another enhancement to rain chances from 05Z-10Z. Some weak elevated instability is expected overnight with some isolated-scattered thunderstorm potential. Will also include LLWS mention tonight into early Saturday as low level jet develops. Some MVFR cigs are possible late tonight into early Saturday morning, with primarily VFR cigs on Saturday. Gusty southeast winds to begin the period will veer south later tonight and then south southwest for Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 knots possible at times.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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