Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Michigan Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 9:04PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:31 AM EDT (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:02PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201905210900;;197656 FZUS53 KGRR 210205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-210900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Michigan Beach, MI
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location: 42.22, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 210553
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 707 pm edt Mon may 19 2019
some breaks in the clouds will occur this evening, but will
quickly fill in overnight ahead of the next system. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s with just an outside
chance for some patchy frost in low areas. Rain chances will
increase after daybreak today with light rain likely, especially
across the northern half of the area. It will be another cool day
with highs in the lower 60s before a dramatic warm up arrives for
the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend.

Unfortunately there will be periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances through the weekend.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 248 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
persistent cloud cover and cold air advection has limited our
warming across the northern indiana, southern lower michigan, and
northwestern ohio as highs have struggled to reach the mid-50s. As
skies clear overnight there is a chance for temperatures to
quickly drop into the lower 40s with a possibility of reaching
38 degrees; primarily along and north of interstate 80. This could
allow for some patchy frost to develop. With that being said,
this window for frost development will be quickly closing after
midnight. This is due to increasing clouds as an elongated
shortwave slowly lifts northwards across the area. This will
help temperatures to warm slightly during the later half of the
overnight hours. Light showers are also possible in association to
this lifting shortwave as it interacts the now stalled cold front
across central in. These showers are expected to persist into the
daytime hours before the shortwave lifts north into lower
michigan. Given the increase in cloud coverage during the day,
high temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 248 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
late Tuesday night, an upper low over the central plains is
forecast to lift northwards into the northern plains. This will
send a cold front eastwards into eastern il by sunrise Wednesday.

Convection is expected to be ongoing along the front as it moves
across il and into western in. As this convection moves into the
cwa, storms will be losing synoptic forcing as the axis of the
ridge lifts across lower michigan. This should result in a gradual
weakening trend through the late morning hours. The front is
forecast to stall across the southeastern CWA and be a focus for
convection to develop on throughout the day. With pwats forecast
in the 1.25-1.5" range, the rainfall could result in localized
flooding; especially in areas of saturated soils. As a sub-
tropical high strengthens over the southeastern us, this area of
showers should diminish.

Persistent high pressure over the southeastern us will result in
above average high temperatures Thursday through the weekend.

Models show the center of the high being a bit to far south to
keep the area dry for this time period. This could result in a
prolonged period of rain chances as perturbations round the top
of the high. Its far to early to be able to time these
perturbations out each day so have stuck close a blended
solution.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 142 am edt Tue may 21 2019
potent MCV rotating through northeast mo early this morning and
not handled well by large scale models. Cams beginning to grasp
this feature and thus beginning to spread more pcpn into our area
after daybreak as MCV weakens but maintains enough lift and
moisture to spread light rain into terminals. Increasing easterly
low level flow should help weaken MCV and lead to gradual decay
of pcpn. However, rather strong moisture advection aloft and good
baroclinic zone will likely support continued pcpn development
through the morning. Fortunataly it appears CIGS will remainVFR
with the dry air entrainment in lower levels and vis mainlyVFR.

Would not rule out brief period of MVFR vis if heavier shower
moves over terminals.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Skipper brown lashley
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
aviation... Lashley
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 8 mi32 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1021 hPa (-1.0)
45168 15 mi22 min N 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 51°F1 ft1022.2 hPa40°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi32 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 45°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 18 mi22 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 55°F1 ft1021.7 hPa42°F
45170 41 mi22 min N 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 51°F2 ft40°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 41 mi38 min NE 2.9 G 6 47°F 54°F1020.8 hPa37°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi32 min N 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 42°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 43 mi32 min N 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 1023 hPa37°F
45029 48 mi22 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 47°F1 ft1022.4 hPa38°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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N4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair38°F36°F93%1021.6 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI15 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair37°F35°F95%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W12W10
G18
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NW7NW7
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6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoSE6SE6S7S5S8SE8S16
G25
SW13
G29
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G40
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W10W11
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W10W6NW11
G19
2 days agoN3N4CalmE7SE9SE8SE10SE10S7SW8SW4W10W5SW7W19
G31
S7CalmCalmSE4NE3E3E4E5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.