Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grosse Pointe, MI
March 19, 2024 9:36 AM EDT (13:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:33 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM Moonset 4:19 AM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 920 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then veering to the northeast in the evening. Mostly Sunny becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with light snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190931 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 531 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
AVIATION
Low clouds have mostly dissipated and pushed east of the TAF sites.
However, mid clouds (6-12 kft) will be persisting through the day.
Southwest gradient will quickly increase this morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer.
This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime hours. A sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west- northwest tonight. These winds will usher in colder temperatures and a return of the low clouds (3-6 kft).
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet Wednesday morning.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
DISCUSSION...
The next upper level jet packet and associated favorable left exit region dynamics will allow a deep cyclonic circulation to track from the northern Lake Superior shoreline today to far southwestern Quebec by Wednesday morning. For the early portion of today large scale forcing will be dominated by differential geopotential height rises off of the exiting trough; for the afternoon the upper level jet axis will push directly overhead. Positioning is such that Southeast Michigan will largely miss out of the cyclonic shear side of the jet as well as the ageostrophic circulation. The exception will be the Thumb where flurries will remain a possibility into the afternoon. The proximity of Southeast Michigan to the south of the passing low will yield warm advection. With some sunshine during the late afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s.
A strong cold front will push across Southeast Michigan by daybreak Wednesday. 850mb temperatures are forecasted to drop some 10 to 12 degrees C which will place the thermodynamic setup perilously close to ice nucleation zone. However, the main forecast narrative for Wednesday will be an extremely dry air mass despite some trajectories downwind of the Great Lakes. The forecast has a mention of flurries for Wednesday and that seems reasonable. Did lower high temperatures for Wednesday as readings should remain a couple of degrees of the freezing mark. The other notable aspect will be the breezy west northwest winds likely reaching and exceeding 30 mph.
Windchills will struggle to climb to 20 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Surface high pressure is in store for Thursday as broadly anticyclonic flow trajectories build over the region. Loss of gradient wind will result in a more noticeable comfort to daytime conditions with highs in the 30s and windchills in the upper 20s.
A significant inflection/trough in the planetary vorticity reservoir will drive a wave of low pressure through the region on Friday. Main trends in the numerical weather prediction guidance have been a convergence of the operational ECMWF run towards the GFS solution which suggests greater phasing between shortwave energy tracking through the northern Plains and the shortwave tracking across the southern to mid Mississippi River Valley. D(prog)/dt has suggested greater amplification of both the northern and southern shortwaves.
The net result of the setup suggests the area of greatest lift associated with the northern wave will track directly through Lower Michigan Friday while the richest thetae content will be shunted ahead of the southern Mississippi wave and miss Southeast Michigan to the South. There are two big unknowns. 1. What portion of the elevated front will observe the greatest lift due to frontogenesis (current model data suggests invof of Saginaw Bay). 2. How long dry air will hold on and when exactly saturation will occur in the lowest 6.0 kft. The uncertainty with the low level dry air suggests it could vw problematic for how much precipitation falls across the southern forecast area. Model consensus suggests most of the precipitation will fall during the daytime Friday which also brings uncertainty to precipitation type as rain could mix in across Detroit. Too early for any expected snowfall amounts of the system but liquid equivalent of around 0.25 inch has been the consensus.
Models suggest a significant pattern change is possible for next weekend as very strong ridge amplification occurs over the eastern United States. Lower confidence with regards to sensible weather here in Southeast MIchigan exists as the edge of the blocking ridge builds very near Southeast Michigan. At this time, the timing of surface high pressure supports favorably dry conditions this weekend.
MARINE...
Southwest flow is developing early this morning in response to an approaching clipper system. Winds quickly strengthen through the morning as the influence of overnight high pressure wanes resulting in rougher conditions in the Saginaw Bay and MI waters of Erie.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for these waters until this afternoon. Clipper drops through the region during the day today bringing additional rounds of snow showers. This system eventually tracks over the Northeast while deepening resulting in strengthening cold air advection into the central Great Lakes as an arctic airmass sinks south. Low-end NW gales still look possible daytime Wednesday over the northern portions of Lake Huron so have continued to run with a Gale Watch. Winds weaken into Thursday as the East Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 531 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Reinforcing shot of arctic air for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered snow flurries.
- Increasing likelihood for accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan late Thursday night into Friday.
AVIATION
Low clouds have mostly dissipated and pushed east of the TAF sites.
However, mid clouds (6-12 kft) will be persisting through the day.
Southwest gradient will quickly increase this morning. Model soundings indicate steepening low level lapse rates, aided by diurnal heating, with 25 to 30 knots winds within the mixed layer.
This will support ample gustiness to the sfc winds during the daytime hours. A sfc cold front is forecast to track across the area late Tues afternoon, leading to a veering of the winds to the west- northwest tonight. These winds will usher in colder temperatures and a return of the low clouds (3-6 kft).
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet Wednesday morning.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
DISCUSSION...
The next upper level jet packet and associated favorable left exit region dynamics will allow a deep cyclonic circulation to track from the northern Lake Superior shoreline today to far southwestern Quebec by Wednesday morning. For the early portion of today large scale forcing will be dominated by differential geopotential height rises off of the exiting trough; for the afternoon the upper level jet axis will push directly overhead. Positioning is such that Southeast Michigan will largely miss out of the cyclonic shear side of the jet as well as the ageostrophic circulation. The exception will be the Thumb where flurries will remain a possibility into the afternoon. The proximity of Southeast Michigan to the south of the passing low will yield warm advection. With some sunshine during the late afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s.
A strong cold front will push across Southeast Michigan by daybreak Wednesday. 850mb temperatures are forecasted to drop some 10 to 12 degrees C which will place the thermodynamic setup perilously close to ice nucleation zone. However, the main forecast narrative for Wednesday will be an extremely dry air mass despite some trajectories downwind of the Great Lakes. The forecast has a mention of flurries for Wednesday and that seems reasonable. Did lower high temperatures for Wednesday as readings should remain a couple of degrees of the freezing mark. The other notable aspect will be the breezy west northwest winds likely reaching and exceeding 30 mph.
Windchills will struggle to climb to 20 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Surface high pressure is in store for Thursday as broadly anticyclonic flow trajectories build over the region. Loss of gradient wind will result in a more noticeable comfort to daytime conditions with highs in the 30s and windchills in the upper 20s.
A significant inflection/trough in the planetary vorticity reservoir will drive a wave of low pressure through the region on Friday. Main trends in the numerical weather prediction guidance have been a convergence of the operational ECMWF run towards the GFS solution which suggests greater phasing between shortwave energy tracking through the northern Plains and the shortwave tracking across the southern to mid Mississippi River Valley. D(prog)/dt has suggested greater amplification of both the northern and southern shortwaves.
The net result of the setup suggests the area of greatest lift associated with the northern wave will track directly through Lower Michigan Friday while the richest thetae content will be shunted ahead of the southern Mississippi wave and miss Southeast Michigan to the South. There are two big unknowns. 1. What portion of the elevated front will observe the greatest lift due to frontogenesis (current model data suggests invof of Saginaw Bay). 2. How long dry air will hold on and when exactly saturation will occur in the lowest 6.0 kft. The uncertainty with the low level dry air suggests it could vw problematic for how much precipitation falls across the southern forecast area. Model consensus suggests most of the precipitation will fall during the daytime Friday which also brings uncertainty to precipitation type as rain could mix in across Detroit. Too early for any expected snowfall amounts of the system but liquid equivalent of around 0.25 inch has been the consensus.
Models suggest a significant pattern change is possible for next weekend as very strong ridge amplification occurs over the eastern United States. Lower confidence with regards to sensible weather here in Southeast MIchigan exists as the edge of the blocking ridge builds very near Southeast Michigan. At this time, the timing of surface high pressure supports favorably dry conditions this weekend.
MARINE...
Southwest flow is developing early this morning in response to an approaching clipper system. Winds quickly strengthen through the morning as the influence of overnight high pressure wanes resulting in rougher conditions in the Saginaw Bay and MI waters of Erie.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for these waters until this afternoon. Clipper drops through the region during the day today bringing additional rounds of snow showers. This system eventually tracks over the Northeast while deepening resulting in strengthening cold air advection into the central Great Lakes as an arctic airmass sinks south. Low-end NW gales still look possible daytime Wednesday over the northern portions of Lake Huron so have continued to run with a Gale Watch. Winds weaken into Thursday as the East Coast low slides into the Canadian maritimes.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for LHZ361>363.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 6 mi | 37 min | SW 12G | 31°F | 29.78 | |||
AGCM4 | 26 mi | 49 min | 31°F | 37°F | 29.73 | |||
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 41 mi | 37 min | SW 25G | 32°F | 29.79 | 22°F | ||
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 48 mi | 49 min | 31°F | 29.70 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 6 sm | 43 min | SW 13G24 | 10 sm | Overcast | Unknown | 34°F | 19°F | 55% | 29.76 |
CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 8 sm | 36 min | SW 19G25 | 9 sm | Overcast | 30°F | 21°F | 69% | 29.77 | |
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 16 sm | 40 min | SSW 16G22 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 29.72 | |
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 19 sm | 21 min | SW 10G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 29.75 | |
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI | 24 sm | 21 min | SW 11G23 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 14°F | 47% | 29.78 |
Detroit, MI,
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