Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:28PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:39 PM EDT (03:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:08AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers late in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sunny until late afternoon becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708182030;;572982 FZUS63 KDTX 181402 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.50 inches will lift from the Straits to central Quebec by Saturday. High pressure, 30.10 inches will build across the upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. LCZ460-182030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 182230
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
630 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Aviation
MVFR lowerVFR ceilings within unsettled westerly flow around low
pressure to the north will scatter out during the course of the
evening as daytime heating is lost. Remaining wind gusts on the
order of 20 knots will also subside with loss of bl mixing. Just as
clouds decrease, another shortwave will pivot into existing upper
trough and bring lowerVFR to potential MVFR CIGS as well as rain
showers late tonight into Saturday morning, generally 10-11z thru 14-
15z. While diurnal cumulus will remain on cusp of sct-bkn in the
wake of this wave, a generally clearing trend is expected Saturday
afternoon evening as drier northwest flow ensues in wake of trough.

For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will scatter out around 02z, but return in
the 09z-11z time frame with the arrival of another disturbance. Will
maintain the prob30 for shras ATTM given hires model trend late this
afternoon. This system will race through quickly so a return to sct
conditions will begin by afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft through 02z and again roughly in the 09z-
17z time frame.

* low for thunderstorms impacting terminal 11z-14z Saturday am.

Prev discussion
Issued at 336 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
discussion...

gusty westerly winds topping out around 30 mph this afternoon, with
dew pts settling toward 60 degrees under cloudy mostly cloudy skies.

Upper level trough wave over the upper mississippi river valley to
arrive early Saturday morning. Narrow short lived 850-700 mb theta-e
ridge will attempt to slide in overnight, with pw values around 1.5
inches along the southern michigan border, but the 850 mb jet winds
fail to back a whole lot over the ohio valley, and thinking just
chance pops are justified with marginally unstable showalter indices
around. In fact, local probabilistic SREF guidance argues for just
low chance right along the border, with slight chance farther north.

Fairly cold 500 mb temps of -13 to -15 c Saturday morning will lead
to a brief opportunity for a thunderstorm or two to develop before
trough thermal axis slides east.

Upper level northwest confluent flow becoming established Saturday
afternoon will allow high pressure to build into the southern great
lakes, with dry and pleasantly warm conditions around for the rest
of the weekend. 850 mb temps reaching 15 c Sunday afternoon should
allow maxes to reach into mid 80s.

Pseudo upper level zonal flow setting up on Monday, and although we
should still be under the influence of the departing high, with warm
advection pattern and warm front set up over the midwest, there is
concern for increasing mid high clouds during Monday afternoon, with
could hinder viewing of the eclipse. Airmass looks capable of
supporting upper 80s to around 90 degrees for highs, but with high
clouds and eclipse leading to less insolation, prefer to be a bit
more conservative.

Otherwise, cloud cover will certainly ramp up throughout Tuesday as
troughing builds in across the great lakes aloft. Warm, humid air
with dewpoints in the upper 60s along with embedded short-waves aloft
will bring the likely chance for rain showers and thunderstorms
throughout Tuesday, before a cold front acts to bring in cool, dry
air early Wednesday. The cold front will be quite impactful in terms
of temperature change, where forecasted highs are only expected to
cap in low to mid 70s both Thursday and Friday. A broad, surface high
pressure system will then move in place across michigan late next
week into the weekend, which will look to bring an extended period of
dry weather.

Marine...

small craft advisories will continue into the evening as
strong and gusty westerly winds continue. These winds will
gradually weaken overnight and continue to weaken Saturday as high
pressure builds in from the west. A weak disturbance may bring some
light showers across western lake erie Saturday morning. Light
westerly winds Saturday will back to the south southwest on Sunday
and continue into the beginning of next week. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms will start across lake huron Monday then
spread across all of the water Monday night and continue through
Tuesday. Winds will finally veer back northwest Tuesday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi40 min W 8.9 G 13 72°F 1011.5 hPa (+1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi100 min WNW 16 G 18 73°F 73°F1009.9 hPa (+1.4)
AGCM4 26 mi52 min 71°F 1010.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi50 min NW 15 G 17 72°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi52 min 71°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi47 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast71°F57°F61%1011 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi42 minW 712.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F59°F69%1010.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi45 minW 710.00 miOvercast71°F58°F64%1011.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi47 minWNW 410.00 miFair69°F60°F74%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W12W10
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1 day agoSE7SE8SE6SE8SE7SE8SE6SE7S5SE5SE6S5S10S10SW5SW3S9SE3S8S7S7SW8SW8W12
2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3E7E8SE8E66SE8SE7E8E9SE10E9SE9SE6SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.