Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:52AM||Sunset 9:13PM||Thursday June 20, 2019 12:55 AM EDT (04:55 UTC)||Moonrise 10:54PM||Moonset 7:50AM||Illumination 93%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kdtx 200356|
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1156 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
A low pressure system on pace to lift across the northern ohio
valley on Thursday. Forcing tied this system will begin to organize
locally overnight, resulting in a gradually expanding coverage of
showers. Conditions generally expected to remain withinVFR early
on, before a more aggressive decline in cloud bases emerges by mid-
late morning. High likelihood for low MVFR to ifr level restrictions
to eventually develop, with the possibility for a window of lifr on
Thursday. Isolated tsra cannot be ruled out, but chances still too
limited to highlight attm. A light northeast wind overnight,
prevailing from this direction into Thursday. A shift in the
gradient as the low passes by to the south will allow winds to
gradually back with time to northerly Thursday afternoon.
For dtw... Window exists early this morning for clear skies across
the lowest 5000 ft. Steady decline in CIGS thereafter, with low
cloud in place within widespread rainfall lasting through Thursday
afternoon. Prospects for tsra will remain very low on Thursday.
Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less prior 09z, high thereafter.
* low in ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less after 10z
* low in thunderstorm occurrence Thursday.
Issued at 436 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
main focus for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening
remains centered on potential for heavy rainfall with shower and
thunderstorm activity. Thus far, slow moving convection has been
able to provide for rainfall rates exceeding 1.00 to 1.20 inches per
hour. The most favored corridor for heavy rainfall is expected to
remain along or between I 69 and m 59, favoring a nearly stationary
axis of 925-850mb frontogenesis. Forecast thought and meterological
rationale provided in the early morning afd and morning update
remains valid. No severe weather is anticipated, but an isolated
wind gust up to 40 mph will be possible with water loading. The
current round of shower and thunderstorm activity will have the
potential to hold on until roughly 02z this evening.
Widespread rain will then develop later tonight as the wave of low
pressure approaches the northern ohio river valley. Latest
indications are the surface low will reach northwest ohio at
approximately 999mb after 15z Thursday. Plan view perspective of
equivalent potential temperature show strong system relative
isentropic ascent for the middle of june standards setting up over
southeast michigan, then stalling out directly over the area through
the mid afternoon hours on Thursday. From a thermodynamic
perspective the increase in midlevel theta E content will provide
for an environment supportive of impressive moist deep convection
with moist adiabatic lapse rates low static stability through 30 kft
agl. Thought and deliberated on whether or not to issue an areal
flood watch for tonight from the ohio border through I 69 corridor.
The big forecast concern for late tonight is whether or not the
midevel deformation forcing will cause a contraction in scale and
result in a mesoscale band of heavy rainfall. Forecast data the past
12 hours or so has been hinting at this potential from north metro
detroit up to about the I 69 corridor. If the mesoscale band of
heavy rainfall was able to develop, then some areas could observe
total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. The combination of 1000-
500mb geopotential height falls and persistent deep column
deformation will lead to another rainy, cool and dismal Thursday.
Given isolated footprint of afternoon convection this afternoon, and
low confidence in mesoscale contraction to rain banding tonight,
have decided not to issue a flood watch. The other area of concern
will be the far southern cwa, lenawee and monroe county where heavy
rainfall potential will exist immediately in advance of the 700-
500mb low pressure center direct cva primarily between 09-15z.
Rain will eventually end early Thursday evening as midlevel
subsidence takes hold of the cwa. Cool night is expected Thursday
nighg with overnight lows some 8 to 13 degrees below normal.
Pleasant and quiet conditions are expected on Friday with sunshine|
allowing highs to reach in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Ridging will gradually amplify over the great lakes region this
weekend in response to a slow moving longwave trough over the
western conus. This will result in increasing temperatures and
humidity as a ridge of higher theta-e air expands northward. There
remains a chance that a mesoscale convective system will traverse
the instability gradient across the great lakes and move into se
michigan Saturday evening night, but with building heights in place
and a strong surface high to our east, thinking this possibility is
relatively unlikely as the system may dissipate or be shunted off to
the south. Will keep chance pops for this time period to account for
the possibility. Saturday will otherwise be dry with increasing
clouds and temperatures warming into the mid 70s.
Chance for showers and storms remains in place for late Sunday and
Monday in the humid air mass. The upper ridge axis will pass
overhead on Sunday which will likely keep the region dry for most of
the day (see 12z euro and canadian solutions). The GFS however
continues to trigger some activity with a convective shortwave
traversing the ridge. The better probability of any shower storm
activity comes late Sunday into Monday as a warm front lifts through
the region and an approaching shortwave leads to the development of
a low pressure system in the western great lakes. Strong storms will
be possible during this period given the dynamics of the shortwave
passing overhead. Rain chances then decrease Tuesday into the
midweek as drier air moves in and flow becomes more zonal.
a weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles
slowly southward during the day with little marine consequence other
than scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
lake st clair and western lake erie from mid afternoon into early
evening. The pressure field remains weak resulting in light
southwest wind shifting north outside of any storms as the front
moves south of lake erie by evening. A low pressure system moves
along the front across indiana and ohio and brings greater coverage
of showers tonight through Thursday along with a moderate NE wind.
Higher stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is
expected to limit wind gusts to around 20 knots and hold waves just
below advisory threshold. Saginaw bay is the possible exception
where the water temperature is considerably warmer. The low pressure
system exits eastward Thursday night and allows weak high pressure
to build across the region from northern ontario. This brings a
break in rainfall and lighter wind over marine areas while the next
low pressure system organizes over the plains and moves eastward
during the weekend.
a weak front moving slowly through the area brings scattered showers
to the area today. Showers become more numerous this afternoon south
of i-69 as daytime heating produces instability. Limited duration of
any heavier showers or thunderstorms holds average rainfall totals
to a quarter inch or less from noon to midnight tonight.
After a short break during the evening, a low pressure system moves
from west to east across indiana and ohio along the front stalled
south of the border. This system has potential for locally heavy
rainfall up to about the i-96 696 corridor and most likely from
about 3 am tonight to 3 pm Thursday. Rainfall totals average three
quarter inch in this area with pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible
depending on location of repeated downpours or thunderstorms. This
may lead to short-duration flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas and subsequent rises in area rivers and streams given the
rainy conditions of recent days.
Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for miz048.
Lake huron... None.
Lake st clair... None.
Michigan waters of lake erie... None.
discussion... CB tf
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI||6 mi||56 min||NNE 8.9 G 9.9||64°F||1005.4 hPa (-0.7)|
|45147 - Lake St Clair||12 mi||56 min||NE 12 G 14||64°F||66°F||1 ft||1004.3 hPa (-0.7)|
|AGCM4||26 mi||62 min||61°F||58°F||1004.8 hPa|
|THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH||41 mi||56 min||ENE 6 G 7||68°F|
|MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI||48 mi||62 min||57°F||1005.1 hPa|
Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI||7 mi||63 min||ENE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||66°F||57°F||75%||1004.4 hPa|
|Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI||17 mi||60 min||NNE 3||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||64°F||62°F||96%||1004.9 hPa|
|Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI||19 mi||61 min||ENE 5||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||67°F||56°F||69%||1005.8 hPa|
|Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI||24 mi||61 min||NE 4||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||67°F||61°F||84%||1004.1 hPa|
Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||SE||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||S||S||S||Calm|
|2 days ago||N||N||NE||N||N||NE||N||N||N||NE||N||E||SE||SE||E||E||E||E||SE||E||E||E||E||NE |
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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