Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:14PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:55 AM EDT (07:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 948 Pm Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening...then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the west in the evening. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201806250815;;066966 FZUS63 KDTX 250148 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, increasing to 30.30 inches, will build south across the Great Lakes tonight and Monday before sliding east on Tuesday. Low pressure, 29.60 inches, will then approach the region from the Central Plains heading into the mid week period. LCZ460-250815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 250358
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1158 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018

Aviation
Stray patches of stratocu over central lower michigan are associated
with cooler air moving in on northeast low level flow that is not
quite dry enough to avoid influence from lake huron and saginaw bay.

Expect these clouds to remain possible in a disorganized pattern
across SE michigan through mid morning. Dry air then takes control
as high pressure builds over the central great lakes through the day
and sustains light NE wind.VFR clear ceiling and visibility will
continue through Monday evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 327 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018
showers and drizzle temporarily become better organized across
central lower michigan late this morning & early this afternoon as
peak heating made the most of the tail end of the existing mid and
low-level deformation axis prior to the exit of the wave to the
east. Resultant weakening of the surface trough has since supported
a reduction in coverage and intensity as it sags south, with another
flare up in coverage possible during the latter stage of peak
heating along the SW periphery of the cloud shield. Meanwhile,
ongoing cold advection will only deepen upper ridging forces high
pressure across northwest ontario, its southern extent locally
enhanced by lake huron. Uncertain cloudy cover tonight will be main
concern with regard to low temperature potential. The northern
extent of the cloud shield currently extends north toward georgian
bay and will translate south through the CWA during the first half
of tonight. The fact that the integrity the stratus deck already
diminishes with westward extent into wi and the up combined with
diminishing forcing overall suggests making a move toward aggressive
clearing and cooler overnight temperatures. Mav met blend reasonable
with temps by Monday morning ranging from the upper 40s in the thumb
to upper 50s in the urban heat island.

High pressure will continue to migrate from northwest ontario off
the new england coast Monday through Tuesday in response to the
closed low over wyoming today ejecting east during this time. Solid
northeast gradient within deep tropospheric subsidence that will be
punching all the way down to the surface will ensure clear skies
save for some high cirrus encroaching from the west. Surface
temperature potential will therefore be maximized over inland areas
where 850mb temps around 10c should support highs solidly in the mid
70s with some potential for overachieving and touching 80 if cirrus
holds off. Marine layer advection will suppress mixing heights
limiting highs to the low 70s in the thumb and monroe county with
60s nearer the immediate shoreline. Weak gradient and clear skies
Monday night will be chilly by mid-summer standards. A simple
mav met blend yields 40s north of m59, a few degrees warmer than the
1981 records of 43 44 at fnt mbs respectively and low 40s or perhaps
upper 30s in the ag-dominated landscape of the thumb. Return flow
emerges Tuesday as high pressure slips east supporting highs
climbing toward 80 despite a chilly start and a 10 to 15 degree
dewpoint recovery. T-storm chances ramp up beginning as early as
late tues aftn as a deep warm frontal structure makes inroads into
lower michigan courtesy of a strengthening low-level jet. Some
potential for activity along the instability gradient depending on
timing, but the bulk of tues eve tues night precip will likely take
the shape of elevated showers tstorms. Early period entrance into
the warm sector will keep low temps tues night elevated near 70
degrees.

Surface low pressure and closed upper-level low with a PV anomaly
will continue rain and thunderstorm chances across SE mi Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon as decent S SW flow allows daytime
temperatures to warm up into the low to mid-80s despite cloud cover.

Heavy downpours and lightning remain the main threat with the
precipitation as pw values range between 1.70 - 1.80 and 850 mb dew
points range between 12 - 14 c. Rain chances diminish late Wednesday
into early Thursday as the upper-level trough moves into new england
attention will then turn to the well-above normal temperatures
forecasted for the later half of this week. Models have been
consistent with advertising temperatures that peak in the 90s for a
daytime high over the past several days. A weak cold front will keep
temperatures capped in the mid-80s for a high on Thursday, however,
850 mb temperatures are expected to soar from from an average of 15c
Thursday afternoon up to 22c by Saturday morning. Upper-level
ridging and a surface high set-up across the eastern u.S. Will also
bring plenty of sunshine for the later half of the week. Strong waa
combined with peak daytime insolation will allow daytime highs to
peak in the lower 90s on Friday, mid-90s Saturday, and lower 90s on
Sunday. Temperatures forecasted are supported by GFS and ECMWF mos
output, both of which support highs in the mid-90s Saturday
afternoon across the metro area and low to mid-90s across the tri-
cities into the thumb. Heat advisories will likely be needed as dew
points climb into the lower-70s, making it feel like the upper-90s
to lower-100s. Isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms are not out
of the question through the week, however, confidence is too low
regarding timing and location to highlight in the forecast.

Marine...

northerly flow only around 15 knots over lake huron will trend a bit
more easterly tomorrow as high pressure sinks into the central great
lakes. Waves look to be predominately below 4 feet, and small craft
advisories have been dropped.

Winds will veer southeasterly Tuesday as a low pressure system and
attendant warm front approach the region from the upper mississippi
river valley. This system will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms for the midweek period.

Hydrology...

increasing chance of rain during Tuesday, with showers and
thunderstorms working through southeast michigan Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Average rainfall around 1 inch possible, but locally
higher amounts in strong thunderstorms, which could lead to poor
drainage and urban flooding.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Jvc am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi56 min NNW 7 G 8.9 59°F 1020 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi56 min NNE 9.7 G 14 59°F 65°F1019.1 hPa (+1.2)
AGCM4 26 mi38 min 54°F 1019.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi36 min NNE 13 G 15 62°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi44 min 57°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi63 minNNE 310.00 miFair58°F51°F78%1019.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi5 hrsNNE 710.00 miFair60°F60°F100%1018.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair58°F52°F82%1020.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair60°F54°F81%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3W4W4W545NW7N8N6N8N8N7N10N8N12N8E7NE5NE4NE3NE8N5N3
1 day agoSE8E8SE5E4E3E4E5NE4SE5NE4E4N5CalmCalmW5W7SW7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE8
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G20
E9E10NE9E8E8E7E7SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.