Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nora, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:13PM Friday March 22, 2019 2:00 AM CDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 7:15AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nora, IL
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location: 42.44, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 220532
afddvn
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
1232 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Aviation update...

Synopsis
Issued at 206 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019
the morning upper low positioned near gary indiana is now sinking
southward into the ohio valley. This has allowed subsidence to
gradually thin out our stratus and cumulus fields and bring a
partly to mostly sunny afternoon to the area, with strong march
sun helping highs warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s despite the
cold air initially in place.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 206 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019
tonight will be dry, with mainly clear skies as another shot of
cooler air arrives toward morning with a reinforcing cold front.

This will serve to bring winds back to a northerly direction again
by morning, and with that increased mixing, lows should actually
be a few degrees warmer than earlier forecast. This amounts to
lows forecast near freezing in all areas.

Friday will be dry, and breezy again, with some diurnally driven
cumulus, especially east. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler
than today with the last shot of cold air aloft in this pattern
before we see significant moderation.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 206 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019
a weekend system promises a wet Sunday, with otherwise dry and
mainly near normal weather expected into next week, followed by a
warm up towards the end of the week.

Saturday will see mild temperatures and departing high pressure
with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s and light southeast
winds. All in all, this will be a very pleasant day. By Saturday
night, increasing mid level moisture will bring the threat of
rain, especially towards daybreak Sunday. Models are now on board
with a prolonged light to moderate rain event Sunday, with
possible 0.25 to 0.50 rains, as indicated by model blends. The
nam, GFS and ec do show some narrow axis of higher totals, but are
different enough that we won't get the specific yet. The biggest
chance today was to increase pops to around 90% Sunday and 70%
Sunday night. This rain seems to add more of a further saturation
threat to the thawing soils rather than an immediate run off
threat. Still, it will bear watching for impacts to streams and
rivers.

There is a chance for light rain or light snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning that is unlikely happen. This is due to the
blended solutions including the gfs, which shows a weak system
then, while the ECMWF and gem both show high pressure. The cold
morning low of the high pressure regime has combined with the low
pops of the GFS to make a snow chance that isn't really expected
in any model. I have done by best to limit this potential in the
grids within the extended forecast process.

In any case, more mild weather is in store for late week with
high potentially in the 60s for Thursday. That is the warm up
which may initiate more rapid snow melt.

Ervin

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1223 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019
vfr will prevail through this TAF period. High pressure will lead
to light winds, unrestricted visibilities, and little in the way
of clouds.

Hydrology
Issued at 850 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019
active melting of the snow pack across minnesota, wisconsin and
northern iowa is expected this weekend as above normal temperatures
move into the midwest. Latest nohrsc analysis shows an average of 3-
4 inches of water equivalent locked up in the snowpack, with large
swaths over 5 inches across portions of northwest wisconsin and
eastern minnesota.

Beyond this weekend, there has been a persistent signal suggesting
temperatures will cool to around normal late this month and into
early april as more zonal to northwesterly flow is favored. Snowmelt
would continue across minnesota, wisconsin and northern iowa but at
a slower rate.

Long range outlooks from the climate prediction center continue to
indicate a risk of above normal precipitation and eventually above
normal temperatures through mid april. However, the highest risk for
heavy precipitation continues to be from the southern plains east
into the deep south.

Forecast models are indicating a storm system occurring late this
weekend and into early next week. At this time, the risk for heavy
precipitation is from kansas across missouri and into southern
illinois.

Current river status:
most tributary rivers have crested and are falling. The three
exceptions remain the wapsipinicon river near dewitt (which will
remain near crest through early Sunday), the cedar river downstream
of cedar bluff, and the iowa river from columbus junction to the
mouth of the mississippi.

On the mississippi, flow contributions from tributary rivers are
combining with the first crest to slowly push river levels higher
from burlington on south to gregory landing.

**updated** have issued a flood warning for higher severity on the
mississippi river at muscatine where the river is expected to
reach major flood stage of 20 feet by Monday morning.

Additional flow is working its way down the mississippi from
guttenberg down through keithsburg. This flow is routed water
from the upper mississippi and its tributaries that was already in
the river system. This flow will keep the mississippi high along
its length.

There will likely be a another crest along the mississippi and its
tributary rivers when the snow across minnesota, wisconsin and
northern iowa melts. While the timing of this flood crest is
uncertain, the most likely time frame is april 10th through the
25th. If temperatures across the midwest are warmer than the current
forecasts and outlooks, the next flood crest may move forward by 7
to 10 days.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Ervin
short term... Ervin
long term... Ervin
aviation... Uttech
hydrology... Haase speck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe Municipal Airport, WI25 mi66 minno data10.00 miFair38°F32°F83%1014.6 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.