Thursday, December13, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Nora, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:28PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:23 PM CST (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 10:27PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nora, IL
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location: 42.44, -90     debug

Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 132301
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
501 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Issued at 500 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
dense fog has become more widespread over the past couple hours
over southeast iowa, northeast missouri into west central
illinois and have put out a dense fog advisory valid until 02z or
8 pm. Light rain showers expanding and spreading northeast have so
far only offered little improvement in visibilities, going from
around 1 4 mile to 1 2 mile where drizzle increases to rain. The
fog could potentially linger past the expiration time and will
reassess as the evening progresses for a possible extension.

Issued at 137 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
today has seen steady progress north of low level moisture. This has
driven a stark difference in sensible weather from a pleasant dry
day north, transitioning to a damp, foggy, and drizzly day in the
south half. The northern edge of the mid 30s surface dewpoints has
seen dense fog today, which was extremely dense this morning. As of
early afternoon, a very thin ribbon of near dense fog is still
likely taking place from washington iowa through mercer county
illinois. With drizzle and showers now developing over the southern
half of the area, and the narrowing of this fog area, we have
elected to discontinue the advisory.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 137 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
tonight, the main challenge to the over all weather will be the
extent of measurable rain. This continues to look to be mainly in
our illinois counties, but with drizzle this afternoon and
this evening, the fog should not expand in coverage so much as
become widespread 1 2 to 1 1 2 mile visibility in fog and drizzle.

That likelihood will keep fog in the forecast grids along with
rain and drizzle. Temperatures in a the entire CWA are now well
above freezing, thus through the main event through mid evening no
freezing precipitation is expected. Overnight, temperatures will
drop below freezing late, but where that occurs, the weather will
be dry.

In the far east, precipitation should end around 1 to 4 am, even
there, conditions will remain above freezing through the end of
the event. Thus, no advisory is expected for tonight. Increasing
north to northwest winds should help dry out surfaces prior to any
wet road freeze ups.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 137 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
generally quiet weather for much of the period with temperatures
at or above normal.

Friday night and Saturday
assessment... Medium to high confidence
mainly dry conditions will be seen with daytime temperatures
averaging above normal.

The storm system moves into the ohio valley with the western edge of
the precipitation shield in central and eastern illinois.

Saturday night and Sunday
assessment... High confidence
the next cold front associated with a weak upper level disturbance
will move through the area on Sunday. The lack of moisture means
that only an increase in clouds will mark the passage of the upper
level disturbance.

The model consensus has quiet and dry conditions for the area.

Sunday night on...

Sunday night through Wednesday
assessment... High confidence
the global models have quiet and dry conditions for the area as high
pressure moves through the midwest.

Wednesday night and Thursday
assessment... Low to medium confidence
Wednesday night into Thursday the next cold front moves through the
area with an associated upper level disturbance. This disturbance is
progged to be stronger than the previous one. However, moisture
availability is in question.

There will be about 24 hours of southerly flow prior to the arrival
of the front. When one takes into account the moist biases of the
models, there should be some moisture available to generate
precipitation but it could be spotty.

Right now the model consensus has slight chance to low chance pops
for areas along and east of the mississippi.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1122 am cst Thu dec 13 2018
a narrow band of dense fog which is very dense at times, continues
to lift north as of 11 am. This fog may move into mli before
shifting northeast into northwest illinois this afternoon.

Visibility may drop to 1 4 at mli, but will be forecast to 1 2
since it's already mild there compared to when fog move in farther
south, when it was cold in the morning. In any case, the storm
system moving through mo today will bring rain to illinois, and
drizzle to iowa, resulting in low MVFR ifr conditions this
afternoon and evening. By midnight, increasing northwest winds
will draw in drier air, with improving conditions toVFR higher
MVFR from west to east tonight.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... Dense fog advisory until 8 pm cst this evening for des moines-
henry ia-lee-louisa-muscatine-scott.

Il... Dense fog advisory until 8 pm cst this evening for bureau-
hancock-henderson-henry il-mcdonough-mercer-putnam-rock

Mo... Dense fog advisory until 8 pm cst this evening for clark.

Update... Sheets
synopsis... Ervin
short term... Ervin
long term... 08
aviation... Ervin

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe Municipal Airport, WI25 mi29 minno data10.00 miOvercast38°F31°F76%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from EFT (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days agoSW12W11--------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.