Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
May 2, 2024 8:09 AM CDT (13:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM Moonset 12:30 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 021040 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 540 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- There is the risk for heavy rain and a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather today and into this evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A mild and wet day is expected throughout the forecast area today, as a slow moving upper low passes north of the area. At the surface, warm advection showers and storms will start the day, as the warm front associated with the surface low passes through the area. With that, the surface low will track southwest to northeast, skimming our far northwest. Cold front will also pass through late this afternoon and evening, which will be another focus for further showers/storms this afternoon and evening. PWATs between 1.25-1.50" will be seen in a narrow axis along and west of the Mississippi River, which will serve as a corridor for heavier rainfall. These areas may see anywhere between 0.75-1.50" of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. While we have a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in these areas, our confidence remains low on the flash flood threat, as these areas are abnormally dry or in drought. Thus, the ground should be able to easily soak up much of the rain. Main areas that may see some impacts will be urban centers.
We will have a low-end severe risk as well, with the SPC highlighting our whole area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5).
Confidence in this is low at the moment, with our focus being on areas along/east of the Mississippi River seeing the best chance for any strong to severe. Instability will be lacking throughout the area, as dense cloud cover and rainfall will be seen through much of the morning. Areas east of the Mississippi will miss out on much of the rain early on, which may allow them to build more instability.
If we can get that, the shear is more than sufficient to favor strong to severe storms. If we end up seeing strong/severe storms, main hazards will be wind and hail, with the tornado threat being secondary.
Much of these showers and storms will continue into the evening, decreasing in coverage from west to east overnight. Much of the area should be free of rain by sunrise Friday. Temperatures overnight will stay relatively mild, with most in the 50s, thanks to residual cloud cover moderating the temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Pattern remains active through at least the first half of the long term period. Upper wave from Thursday continues to trek northeast through the northern Great Lakes, with another wave digging south into the area on Saturday. Much of Friday appears to remain dry after the bulk of the precipitation pushes east, with more showers and isolated storms approaching the area Saturday. Severe weather is not expected Saturday. Rather, it is looking to be a gloomy day, with light rain.
The next system to bring heavier rain and storms will be early next week, as a deepening wave over the Rockies pushes into the Plains, becoming negatively tilted and quickly punching through the Upper Midwest Monday night. Although, that trough of low pressure stalls over the northern US, slowing filling in and weakening. While that remains north of the area, bouts of energy passing through may bring the chance for persistent showers and gloomy conditions. There is much uncertainty with how this will play out, generally given the lacking moisture. While this does not seem to be a washout by any means, there will be nearly daily chances for precipitation next week, with plenty of dry periods in the mix as well.
Temperatures next week will be similar to what we are seeing now, with much of the area remaining in the 70s to low 80s. Thus, aside from the rain chances, it should be a nice week!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR conditions will start trending towards MVFR by 15-18z.
Scattered showers and storms will slowly fill in throughout the area, becoming widespread between 12-15z. These showers and storms will bring periods of cigs between 1000-3000 ft or less, with vis dropping to 3 SM in heavier showers. TEMPOs were included through the morning, highlighting the chance for storms moving into the area. Currently, a line of strong storms is moving through Des Moines, which will move into the area within the TEMPO timeframe. Frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds will all be possible with the storms. Winds will also be on the rise, starting light and easterly, shifting southeasterly through the morning, and then southwesterly after 18z, with gusts upwards to 25 KTs possible.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 540 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- There is the risk for heavy rain and a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather today and into this evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A mild and wet day is expected throughout the forecast area today, as a slow moving upper low passes north of the area. At the surface, warm advection showers and storms will start the day, as the warm front associated with the surface low passes through the area. With that, the surface low will track southwest to northeast, skimming our far northwest. Cold front will also pass through late this afternoon and evening, which will be another focus for further showers/storms this afternoon and evening. PWATs between 1.25-1.50" will be seen in a narrow axis along and west of the Mississippi River, which will serve as a corridor for heavier rainfall. These areas may see anywhere between 0.75-1.50" of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. While we have a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in these areas, our confidence remains low on the flash flood threat, as these areas are abnormally dry or in drought. Thus, the ground should be able to easily soak up much of the rain. Main areas that may see some impacts will be urban centers.
We will have a low-end severe risk as well, with the SPC highlighting our whole area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5).
Confidence in this is low at the moment, with our focus being on areas along/east of the Mississippi River seeing the best chance for any strong to severe. Instability will be lacking throughout the area, as dense cloud cover and rainfall will be seen through much of the morning. Areas east of the Mississippi will miss out on much of the rain early on, which may allow them to build more instability.
If we can get that, the shear is more than sufficient to favor strong to severe storms. If we end up seeing strong/severe storms, main hazards will be wind and hail, with the tornado threat being secondary.
Much of these showers and storms will continue into the evening, decreasing in coverage from west to east overnight. Much of the area should be free of rain by sunrise Friday. Temperatures overnight will stay relatively mild, with most in the 50s, thanks to residual cloud cover moderating the temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Pattern remains active through at least the first half of the long term period. Upper wave from Thursday continues to trek northeast through the northern Great Lakes, with another wave digging south into the area on Saturday. Much of Friday appears to remain dry after the bulk of the precipitation pushes east, with more showers and isolated storms approaching the area Saturday. Severe weather is not expected Saturday. Rather, it is looking to be a gloomy day, with light rain.
The next system to bring heavier rain and storms will be early next week, as a deepening wave over the Rockies pushes into the Plains, becoming negatively tilted and quickly punching through the Upper Midwest Monday night. Although, that trough of low pressure stalls over the northern US, slowing filling in and weakening. While that remains north of the area, bouts of energy passing through may bring the chance for persistent showers and gloomy conditions. There is much uncertainty with how this will play out, generally given the lacking moisture. While this does not seem to be a washout by any means, there will be nearly daily chances for precipitation next week, with plenty of dry periods in the mix as well.
Temperatures next week will be similar to what we are seeing now, with much of the area remaining in the 70s to low 80s. Thus, aside from the rain chances, it should be a nice week!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR conditions will start trending towards MVFR by 15-18z.
Scattered showers and storms will slowly fill in throughout the area, becoming widespread between 12-15z. These showers and storms will bring periods of cigs between 1000-3000 ft or less, with vis dropping to 3 SM in heavier showers. TEMPOs were included through the morning, highlighting the chance for storms moving into the area. Currently, a line of strong storms is moving through Des Moines, which will move into the area within the TEMPO timeframe. Frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds will all be possible with the storms. Winds will also be on the rise, starting light and easterly, shifting southeasterly through the morning, and then southwesterly after 18z, with gusts upwards to 25 KTs possible.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
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Quad Cities, IA,
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