Thursday, September20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Nora, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:59PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:45 AM CDT (07:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nora, IL
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location: 42.44, -90     debug

Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 192320
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
620 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Aviation update...

Issued at 237 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a large complex of showers & storms associated with a northward
moving warm front and 925 mb LLJ moved across the region early this
afternoon, producing brief wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Additional
showers & storms were developing not far behind, and as of 2pm
stretched from manchester, ia to belle plaine, ia. Further south,
2 pm observations and analysis showed a strong upper level ridge
stretching from the southern great plains to the southeast us, and
broad surface high pressure centered over the southeast us. Skies
were clearing along and south of i-80, allowing temperatures to
climb into the middle to upper 80s.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 237 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
main forecast challenge for the short term will be precipitation
chances tonight.

Expect the aforementioned line of showers & storms to continue
moving east across the region through early evening. Brief
clearing ahead of the line has allowed for CAPE to build upwards
of 1500-2000 j kg across portions of SE ia and west central il.

With 0-6km wind shear around or greater than 30 kts across the
region, would not be surprised to see some small hail and brief
wind gusts with stronger cores. SPC maintains a marginal risk
across the region. Behind the line of showers & storms, expect the
warm front to lift north and allow for quieter conditions into
early tonight with increasing clouds.

Late tonight, models in good agreement of a shortwave ejecting out
of a trough over the western great plains into southern mn and
northern ia. Combined with the warm front and a redeveloping llj,
expecting a large area of rain and thunderstorms to develop across
that area. At this time, the bulk of precipitation will remain out
of the forecast area, and instead will focus over northeast ia,
southeast mn and southwest wi. Very heavy rainfall will be the
primary threat with showers & storms, especially with pwats climbing
to 1.5-2 inches. With the potential for developing outflow
boundaries south of the main complex, have kept pops high along and
north of the highway 20 corridor, where rainfall amounts over half
an inch will be possible Thursday morning.

Precip chances will begin to decrease Thursday morning, allowing for
a mix of clouds and sunshine for the remainder of the day. It will
be a windy day as vertical mixing taps into winds around 25-35 kts.

As we will be fully in the warm sector, temperatures will climb into
the upper 80s to lower 90s, producing heat induces into the middle
90s to near 100. By the evening, a cold front will approach the area
from the west, which will take us into the long term.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 237 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
the main focus in the extended is the passage of a strong cold front
late Thursday night and the potential for severe weather associated
with it.

After a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon Thursday, very mild
conditions for a mid late september evening will be seen with
temperatures still in the 70s to near 80 through midnight. Gusty
southwest winds will continue through the night; diminishing
slightly during the FROPA and then increasing again out of the
northwest. Models continue to show strongest forcing along and
behind the front. SPC has added an enhanced risk area to parts of
northern wisconsin and southeast minnesota; and has essentially kept
the slight risk area over areas northwest of the highway 151
corridor from cedar rapids to dubuque the same. The marginal area
has been trimmed back towards the northwest; now excluding extreme
se ia, NE mo, and west central il. The severe threat (hail and wind)
still exits, but does not appear as likely as it does for areas
further to the west northwest in parts of central and north central
iowa. Likely rain chances are now expected in the extreme NW part of
the CWA late Thu evening with more scattered chances overnight.

Much cooler conditions are still expected Friday and Friday night as
colder air filters into the area. Most of the area will start out
dry Friday, aside from a slight chance for lingering showers in the
east and SE cwa. Breezy NW winds and cool chilly temperatures will
be common during the day; with highs struggling into the low mid 60s
nw or cedar rapids and dubuque, while areas east of the ms river and
south of i80 see highs in the low mid 70s. Lows early Saturday will
be in the 40s to near 50.

Cool, dry, canadian high pressure will be found through the weekend,
with mid 60s to low 70s Sat warming into the 70s Sunday. Mainly dry
conditions will continue into Monday with low chances south and
west. Highs Mon will generally be in the mid 70s.

An upper level wave and then cold front will bring another chance
for precip late Mon into tues and again Tue afternoon and night.

Tue highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with upper 60s wed.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 615 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
thunderstorms have now moved east of the area in the past few
hours. The storms should mainly now be north of highway 20 in iowa
and illinois (especially over mn and wi) overnight. Increasing
southerly flow will spread over the region as the warm front lifts
to mn by late tonight. A hot,VFR day is expected Thursday, with
the cold front arriving later Thursday night. That front may bring
the next chance for rain and thunderstorms during that time, but
will keep the breezy south winds going until it arrives.


Issued at 237 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
one to three inches of rain has fallen in parts of north central
and northeast iowa over the past 24-36 hours. The current wpc
rainfall forecast through Thu morning has a 100-150 mile wide
swath of another 1 to 3 inches generally centered on and spanning
along the iowa minnesota border. For this reason, river forecasts
for the cedar river basin are forecast to rise above flood stage
in the day4 to day7 time frame. Due to the uncertainty of amounts
and placement of forecasted rainfall, I have issued new flood
watches for the cedar river at vinton, cedar rapids, and
conesville. I have also continued the flood watch on the iowa
river at marengo, which, although delayed 48 hours, still is
forecast to exceed its flood stage early next week.

As for current river flooding on the lower mississippi and rock
rivers, the levels on the mississippi at gladstone, burlington, and
gregory landing are expected to drop below their respective flood
stages tonight. However, the rock river at joslin will continue to
slowly fall; reaching its flood stage level Saturday.

Issued at 237 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
record highs for september 20...

moline... ... ... 94 in 2017
cedar rapids... 93 in 1931
dubuque... ... ..92 in 1895
burlington... ..93 in 2017

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Speck
short term... Speck
long term... 14
aviation... Ervin
hydrology... 14
climate... Speck

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe Municipal Airport, WI25 mi51 minNNE 13 G 165.00 miFog/Mist62°F60°F97%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from EFT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE4E3NE4S4E7E7E7E4E9E5N6W6NE5E9------NE8NE10E5SE11N5NE9NW11
1 day agoNE5CalmN13
2 days agoS6SW6SW6W8SW7W6W6W8W7W9W3NW3SW8W6NW6CalmCalmS4SW5N7N6E3S4E3

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.