Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
May 19, 2024 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:39 PM Moonset 2:35 AM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 191952 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms is in place tonight with large hail and lightning being the main threat.
- Active weather will continue through the period as we are more in a mid summer pattern than mid spring.
- Severe weather is possible Monday through Tuesday. An enhanced risk for severe weather is forecast for Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A frontal boundary sits to our south across northern Missouri into central Illinois. Regional radar shows scattered showers and storms moving northeastward across central Iowa. Another area of showers and storms is currently moving into eastern Nebraska. Temperatures at 1 PM range from 73 degrees at Dubuque to 84 degrees at Keokuk.
At 500 mb, a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to dig southeastward and reinforce troughing over the southwestern US. This will result in southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwestern US into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms to our west are associated with a shortwave trough that is lifting into the area now through this evening. Have been watching moisture recover across the area over the last few hours with most unstable CAPE building northward but ranging from 500 to 1000 J/KG with deep layer of 30 to 40 knots across the area. Models continue to show further destabilization across the area with 500 to 1500 J/KG from north to south across the area. Expect showers and storms to develop across the area as we warm further with isolated to scattered showers and expect these to exit northwest Illinois by 03 to 06 UTC.
In the wake of this wave, models continue to show fast moving shortwave ridging that will build into the area. There are still some slight timing differences between the models which lends lower confidence in the amount of drying time there will be as another stronger shortwave trough will be quickly on its heals as a 30 to 40 knots low level jet across central Iowa veers into the area prior to 12 UTC as the stronger lift associated with the approaching shortwave spreads into the area. This will lead to the development of showers and storms late in the period. Model soundings show a strong low level inversion leading to elevated storms. The primary threat from these storms will be hail and lightning. I have tried to adjust chances of showers and storms to account for this but expect the chances for showers and storms to remain west of the Mississippi River tonight. Low temperatures on Monday morning will be in the 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Active pattern with a mid-summer like pattern is expected to last through most of the period as a stalled out boundary resides just south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday. This boundary will separate the area between Tds in the 40-50s, to the more robust deep moist Tds in the 60s and 70s to the south.
A series of weak waves and possibly MCVs/convective induced waves/ move over the boundary Monday morning and afternoon. A strong synoptic wave, with better shear is expected to approach the area into Tuesday. At the same time a deepening surface low with this wave will help to bring this boundary north as a warm front Tuesday. This will bring higher Tds into the area ahead of the wave and along with increased shear. Then the boundary is sent south again as a cold front later Tuesday. After this point, there are questions about where the boundary will be and additional chances for thunderstorms.
Monday: Guidance has trended towards a strong wave associated with a MCV from tonights convection across the Plains. An initial wave of showers and storms will move through the area in the afternoon, possibly leaving some OFBs for convection later.
There is a good chance much of the area will see high temps before this convection then cool into the 70s because trying to reach 80 again in the late afternoon. Destabilization in the afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River will coincide with the better shear associated with the vortmax.
CAMs have showers and storms form shortly after 18z and move off to the east. Looking at shear, guidance is rather weak, especially in the GFS which is faster with the wave. Depending on timing of this wave, could see better shear co-located with the better forcing and CAPE across our east. There will be a threat of damaging winds with a secondary threat of large hail and tornadoes.
Tuesday: This continues to look like a big severe weather day across the region. The warm front will move north bringing the area into the warm sector. CAMs have convection moving through mid to late morning. In summer, this would kill our PM severe chances, however, the strong synoptic wave will continue to bring CAPE into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop west of the area. At first, 0-6km shear vectors perpendicular to the forcing will favor supercells. The 12z NAMnest depicts this evolution well with the line of supercells just west of the CWA at 00z Wed. All hazards are possible with these initial cells. With weak upper level flow, these cells will quickly turn into a line. Strong LLJ will result in a long lived QLCS. 0-3km shear vectors are orientated and strong enough for mesovort development and areas of enhanced wind gusts. After 00z, surface winds veer and there becomes less curvature in the low level hodos, suggesting the tornado threat is waning. If winds stay backed or back due to the storm, then a tornado threat would be possible after 00z as the line moves into our area. In addition, some heavy rainfall will be possible with this event, with PWs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which would be above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A difficult TAF forecast for this period. An area of showers and storms is approaching I-35 and weakening in central Iowa. Have moved showers into CID around 21 UTC and then move it eastward to KDBQ, KMLI, and KBRL by 00 UTC then exit this area of showers prior to 06 UTC. Expect periods of MVFR visibilities in showers. Left thunderstorms out of the TAFs for now but they are possible. There will be a quiet period with high pressure overhead and a return to VFR conditions. A second round of showers and storms will move into the area by 12 UTC and linger through the morning hours. Again, MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with these storms as well. East winds around 5 MPH will slowly turn to the south through 12 UTC on Monday and increase to 10 to 15 knots.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms is in place tonight with large hail and lightning being the main threat.
- Active weather will continue through the period as we are more in a mid summer pattern than mid spring.
- Severe weather is possible Monday through Tuesday. An enhanced risk for severe weather is forecast for Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A frontal boundary sits to our south across northern Missouri into central Illinois. Regional radar shows scattered showers and storms moving northeastward across central Iowa. Another area of showers and storms is currently moving into eastern Nebraska. Temperatures at 1 PM range from 73 degrees at Dubuque to 84 degrees at Keokuk.
At 500 mb, a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to dig southeastward and reinforce troughing over the southwestern US. This will result in southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwestern US into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms to our west are associated with a shortwave trough that is lifting into the area now through this evening. Have been watching moisture recover across the area over the last few hours with most unstable CAPE building northward but ranging from 500 to 1000 J/KG with deep layer of 30 to 40 knots across the area. Models continue to show further destabilization across the area with 500 to 1500 J/KG from north to south across the area. Expect showers and storms to develop across the area as we warm further with isolated to scattered showers and expect these to exit northwest Illinois by 03 to 06 UTC.
In the wake of this wave, models continue to show fast moving shortwave ridging that will build into the area. There are still some slight timing differences between the models which lends lower confidence in the amount of drying time there will be as another stronger shortwave trough will be quickly on its heals as a 30 to 40 knots low level jet across central Iowa veers into the area prior to 12 UTC as the stronger lift associated with the approaching shortwave spreads into the area. This will lead to the development of showers and storms late in the period. Model soundings show a strong low level inversion leading to elevated storms. The primary threat from these storms will be hail and lightning. I have tried to adjust chances of showers and storms to account for this but expect the chances for showers and storms to remain west of the Mississippi River tonight. Low temperatures on Monday morning will be in the 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Active pattern with a mid-summer like pattern is expected to last through most of the period as a stalled out boundary resides just south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday. This boundary will separate the area between Tds in the 40-50s, to the more robust deep moist Tds in the 60s and 70s to the south.
A series of weak waves and possibly MCVs/convective induced waves/ move over the boundary Monday morning and afternoon. A strong synoptic wave, with better shear is expected to approach the area into Tuesday. At the same time a deepening surface low with this wave will help to bring this boundary north as a warm front Tuesday. This will bring higher Tds into the area ahead of the wave and along with increased shear. Then the boundary is sent south again as a cold front later Tuesday. After this point, there are questions about where the boundary will be and additional chances for thunderstorms.
Monday: Guidance has trended towards a strong wave associated with a MCV from tonights convection across the Plains. An initial wave of showers and storms will move through the area in the afternoon, possibly leaving some OFBs for convection later.
There is a good chance much of the area will see high temps before this convection then cool into the 70s because trying to reach 80 again in the late afternoon. Destabilization in the afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River will coincide with the better shear associated with the vortmax.
CAMs have showers and storms form shortly after 18z and move off to the east. Looking at shear, guidance is rather weak, especially in the GFS which is faster with the wave. Depending on timing of this wave, could see better shear co-located with the better forcing and CAPE across our east. There will be a threat of damaging winds with a secondary threat of large hail and tornadoes.
Tuesday: This continues to look like a big severe weather day across the region. The warm front will move north bringing the area into the warm sector. CAMs have convection moving through mid to late morning. In summer, this would kill our PM severe chances, however, the strong synoptic wave will continue to bring CAPE into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop west of the area. At first, 0-6km shear vectors perpendicular to the forcing will favor supercells. The 12z NAMnest depicts this evolution well with the line of supercells just west of the CWA at 00z Wed. All hazards are possible with these initial cells. With weak upper level flow, these cells will quickly turn into a line. Strong LLJ will result in a long lived QLCS. 0-3km shear vectors are orientated and strong enough for mesovort development and areas of enhanced wind gusts. After 00z, surface winds veer and there becomes less curvature in the low level hodos, suggesting the tornado threat is waning. If winds stay backed or back due to the storm, then a tornado threat would be possible after 00z as the line moves into our area. In addition, some heavy rainfall will be possible with this event, with PWs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which would be above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A difficult TAF forecast for this period. An area of showers and storms is approaching I-35 and weakening in central Iowa. Have moved showers into CID around 21 UTC and then move it eastward to KDBQ, KMLI, and KBRL by 00 UTC then exit this area of showers prior to 06 UTC. Expect periods of MVFR visibilities in showers. Left thunderstorms out of the TAFs for now but they are possible. There will be a quiet period with high pressure overhead and a return to VFR conditions. A second round of showers and storms will move into the area by 12 UTC and linger through the morning hours. Again, MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with these storms as well. East winds around 5 MPH will slowly turn to the south through 12 UTC on Monday and increase to 10 to 15 knots.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Quad Cities, IA,
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