Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL
March 18, 2024 8:15 PM CDT (01:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:02 AM Sunset 7:10 PM Moonrise 11:35 AM Moonset 3:06 AM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 182320 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 620 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer temperatures, dry air and windy conditions are expected Tuesday and will produce another enhanced fire danger to the area.
- Pattern becomes active through the end of the week as passing system's bring precipitation chances to the area. We continue to see the freezing line near or in the area as well as cold air aloft suggesting that we could have some spring snow chances.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight...Large sfc ridge sliding southward acrs the central/southern plains and MO RVR Valley, while elongated vort complex almost sheared out and channeled was noticed acrs northern Alberta. This upper vort energy will clipper it's way down acrs the GRT LKS on Tue, shunting an associated sfc front through the area by early afternoon. As the sfc ridge moves off and this upper wave system digs down acrs the upper MS RVR Valley, anti-cyclonic LLVL flow will go cyclonic southwesterly and really tightens. This with west-northwest low level jet(LLJ) flow increasing to 35-45+ KTs will make for high low to mid level wind fields acrs the area by late tonight. Enough pre-frontal mixing indicated on BUFKIT soundings to drive sfc wind momentum with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, especially acrs the southwest half of the DVN CWA With the cellular and patchy CU eroding for a mainly clear night and ongoing low sfc DPTs in place, temps should drop off after dark down in the 20s. Then expect a late night non-diurnal temp trend before dawn as the southwesterly pre- frontal winds increase and start to gust.
Tuesday...Looks like a dry FROPA by late morning to midday sweeping acrs the local area. A temporary sfc wind dip along this process, then post-frontal winds will veer to the northwest during the afternoon with gusts up to 35 MPH. This Tue afternoon period with sfc RH's dropping well down in the 30s and mild mixed up sfc temps in the 50s and even some lower 60s in the south, will be the enhanced fire danger window with Grassland Fire Danger Index(GFDI)
readings in the very high range. While not quite high enough for Red Flag Warning headlines, still enough to cover and alert the fire danger in several other products.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wednesday...A cool day with mid to upper MS RVR Valley sfc ridging and incoming pressure gradient inducing NNW sfc winds of 10-20 MPH until they decrease by late afternoon. LLVL cool baroclinicity aligns parallel under NW-to-SE steering flow aloft and will look to tighten from the northwest high plains to the OH RVR Valley. With the potential for a weak upper wave or trof to ripple down along this thermal ribbon and the local area looking to be on the cool side, we may some periods of flurries or light snow at times getting milked out of any stratocu deck streaming acrs the area especially Wed night. May be initially virga with the low to mid level dry air in place, bu then a few flakes may be realized at the sfc with the ongoing elevated F-gen/isentropic lift. Wed highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday and Friday...Latest run ensembles and blends still suggest a bit more organized and vigorous short wave/clipper type system to propagate along the ongoing baroclinic storm track, with some decent sfc reflection low pressure development rolling in near or acrs the local area late Thu night into Friday morning. This feature to bring rain,rain-snow mix, and probably all wet snow looking at the vertical thermal profiles by Thu night. Before hand, southeasterly return flow ahead of the clipper should bring about a bit of a sfc temp warm up with highs in the mid to upper 40s acrs the southwest half of the DVN CWA Current indications suggest there will be cool enough vertical profiles north of I-80 trending a rain- snow mix into all snow as the night progresses into, with some light snow acumms possible especially on elevated surfaces. Several model blends and ensembles show a 75th percentile of 1-3 inches of snow along the Hwy 20 corridor by Friday morning. There may also be a wintry mix transition zone off to the south of the snow before we get more into a regular rain supporting airmass south of I-80. Still plenty of details to be worked out. Would think Friday a mostly cloudy post-frontal day and some worry the loaded blend of temps may be a bit optimistic on the mild side.
Saturday and Sunday...Current ensemble trends suggest Saturday to be a lull day in between systems, while some type of longer wave troffiness and rounding upper jet energy organize upstream acrs the western CONUS. As there are long range signs of a mild moist conveyor streaming up off the western Gulf to lee of the trof complex, precip chances may really ramp up from late Sat night or Sunday into early next week. But with the spread between solutions and ensembles, very low confidence in QPF amounts, placements and types at this juncture in the game. The one consistent signal is that there may be a significant storm system traversing somewhere acrs the mid CONUS early next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wind will dominate an otherwise VFR TAF period through Tuesday.
Winds tonight will be west to northwest at 10 to 20 kts early this evening, but will decrease under 10 kts west by 01Z through midnight. An approaching clipper system passing to our north will bring increasing southwest winds after midnight, with surface winds southwest at 14 to 22kts by 09z. In this period, winds aloft will be much higher, and LLWS is forecast at 2000 ft AGL, where winds are west to southwest at 40-45 kts. This LLWS should continue though 14Z Tuesday, before the LLWS decays and northwest winds at the surface shift to northwest at 12 to 20 kts.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 620 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer temperatures, dry air and windy conditions are expected Tuesday and will produce another enhanced fire danger to the area.
- Pattern becomes active through the end of the week as passing system's bring precipitation chances to the area. We continue to see the freezing line near or in the area as well as cold air aloft suggesting that we could have some spring snow chances.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight...Large sfc ridge sliding southward acrs the central/southern plains and MO RVR Valley, while elongated vort complex almost sheared out and channeled was noticed acrs northern Alberta. This upper vort energy will clipper it's way down acrs the GRT LKS on Tue, shunting an associated sfc front through the area by early afternoon. As the sfc ridge moves off and this upper wave system digs down acrs the upper MS RVR Valley, anti-cyclonic LLVL flow will go cyclonic southwesterly and really tightens. This with west-northwest low level jet(LLJ) flow increasing to 35-45+ KTs will make for high low to mid level wind fields acrs the area by late tonight. Enough pre-frontal mixing indicated on BUFKIT soundings to drive sfc wind momentum with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, especially acrs the southwest half of the DVN CWA With the cellular and patchy CU eroding for a mainly clear night and ongoing low sfc DPTs in place, temps should drop off after dark down in the 20s. Then expect a late night non-diurnal temp trend before dawn as the southwesterly pre- frontal winds increase and start to gust.
Tuesday...Looks like a dry FROPA by late morning to midday sweeping acrs the local area. A temporary sfc wind dip along this process, then post-frontal winds will veer to the northwest during the afternoon with gusts up to 35 MPH. This Tue afternoon period with sfc RH's dropping well down in the 30s and mild mixed up sfc temps in the 50s and even some lower 60s in the south, will be the enhanced fire danger window with Grassland Fire Danger Index(GFDI)
readings in the very high range. While not quite high enough for Red Flag Warning headlines, still enough to cover and alert the fire danger in several other products.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wednesday...A cool day with mid to upper MS RVR Valley sfc ridging and incoming pressure gradient inducing NNW sfc winds of 10-20 MPH until they decrease by late afternoon. LLVL cool baroclinicity aligns parallel under NW-to-SE steering flow aloft and will look to tighten from the northwest high plains to the OH RVR Valley. With the potential for a weak upper wave or trof to ripple down along this thermal ribbon and the local area looking to be on the cool side, we may some periods of flurries or light snow at times getting milked out of any stratocu deck streaming acrs the area especially Wed night. May be initially virga with the low to mid level dry air in place, bu then a few flakes may be realized at the sfc with the ongoing elevated F-gen/isentropic lift. Wed highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday and Friday...Latest run ensembles and blends still suggest a bit more organized and vigorous short wave/clipper type system to propagate along the ongoing baroclinic storm track, with some decent sfc reflection low pressure development rolling in near or acrs the local area late Thu night into Friday morning. This feature to bring rain,rain-snow mix, and probably all wet snow looking at the vertical thermal profiles by Thu night. Before hand, southeasterly return flow ahead of the clipper should bring about a bit of a sfc temp warm up with highs in the mid to upper 40s acrs the southwest half of the DVN CWA Current indications suggest there will be cool enough vertical profiles north of I-80 trending a rain- snow mix into all snow as the night progresses into, with some light snow acumms possible especially on elevated surfaces. Several model blends and ensembles show a 75th percentile of 1-3 inches of snow along the Hwy 20 corridor by Friday morning. There may also be a wintry mix transition zone off to the south of the snow before we get more into a regular rain supporting airmass south of I-80. Still plenty of details to be worked out. Would think Friday a mostly cloudy post-frontal day and some worry the loaded blend of temps may be a bit optimistic on the mild side.
Saturday and Sunday...Current ensemble trends suggest Saturday to be a lull day in between systems, while some type of longer wave troffiness and rounding upper jet energy organize upstream acrs the western CONUS. As there are long range signs of a mild moist conveyor streaming up off the western Gulf to lee of the trof complex, precip chances may really ramp up from late Sat night or Sunday into early next week. But with the spread between solutions and ensembles, very low confidence in QPF amounts, placements and types at this juncture in the game. The one consistent signal is that there may be a significant storm system traversing somewhere acrs the mid CONUS early next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wind will dominate an otherwise VFR TAF period through Tuesday.
Winds tonight will be west to northwest at 10 to 20 kts early this evening, but will decrease under 10 kts west by 01Z through midnight. An approaching clipper system passing to our north will bring increasing southwest winds after midnight, with surface winds southwest at 14 to 22kts by 09z. In this period, winds aloft will be much higher, and LLWS is forecast at 2000 ft AGL, where winds are west to southwest at 40-45 kts. This LLWS should continue though 14Z Tuesday, before the LLWS decays and northwest winds at the surface shift to northwest at 12 to 20 kts.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
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