Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:16PM Sunday March 24, 2019 4:23 AM CDT (09:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 8:20AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 240818
afddvn
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
318 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 300 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
bands of rain beginning to increase in coverage over eastern iowa
and northwest illinois. The initial wave from independence down
through the quad cities is fairly light because dry low-levels
have been evaporating a lot of it before reaching the ground.

Here at the office, light rain began at 145 am with a surface rh
of 61%. Now we're up to 76% with the rain becoming slightly more
steady.

Back to the west and southwest, from near vinton to keokuk, the
activity is showery in appearance on radar with embedded moderate
cores. So far tonight, there have not been lightning cloud
flashes or strikes in or near our cwa.

Latest IR satellite loop depicted the upper-level low still
located well to our west, over south-central nebraska and north-
central kansas. It's not moving to the east all that fast either.

We'll be dealing with effects from this system into this evening
before the rain chances really diminish.

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 300 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
today
periods of rain or showers are likely, but it's apparent now that
the measurable rain will come from two distinct waves.

The first of which, fueled by low-level positive theta-e
advection, is ongoing across the west and southwest cwa. This band
of showers will continue to lift nne through the morning,
weakening once it reaches north of i-80. It will then pivot across
the north later this afternoon and evening, before finally
sinking back to the south in a weakening fashion.

The secondary round of rain will be associated with PVA from the
500mb vorticity MAX and a slight increase in mucape. Models have
trended further south with the track of the vort. Max, keeping
most of the rain to the south of highway 34 (west of galesburg,
il). Maintained a slight chance for thunder across the south this
afternoon.

Overall, total rainfall amounts won't be too impressive and will
vary considerably across the forecast area with most locations
between 0.10 to 0.40 inches. Pwats up to 0.80-0.90 tenths will
support heavier downpours but rainfall should be limited by
prolonged breaks and the scattered coverage. This is good news
because impacts to river levels are not anticipated.

Hi-res models develop thunderstorms to the ese of the upper-
level this afternoon across central missouri into southwest
illinois. The hrrr is the furthest north with a few strong
cells forming only one tier of counties south of scotland and
clark (mo). We'll have to watch this closely, if the surface low
were to track only slightly further north the surface- based
instability would follow suit and nudge up into the far southern
cwa.

Right now the hrrr seems overdone on the northern convection, but
again something to be aware of later today. The storm prediction
center has a marginal risk for severe storms well south of
forecast area.

Tonight and Monday
chilly tonight with cold air coming in behind a backdoor cold
front. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s. For Monday, highs only
reach the mid to upper 40s. Although, the late march Sun angle
will make it feel warmer.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
issued at 300 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
long term period begins with a gradual warming trend and quiet
weather. Towards the end of the period, return flow will prime the
area for a late week storm system. Guidance is consistent with
higher QPF from this system across the area. This system will be
the main forecast concern in the long term period.

Tuesday expect clear skies and temperatures in the upper 40s to low
50s as large scale ridging moves into the area. These clear skies
will be short lived as the flow turns southwest for Wednesday.

Wednesday through the weekend, expect return flow on Wednesday with
clouds and warmer temperatures across the area. Moisture will also
return to the area as the flow begins to bring gulf moisture into
the area. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the GFS has a
strong LLJ into the area that will bring moisture for the next wave
Thursday into Saturday. At this time, there are still differences
in the momentum fields between the models. These differences
greatly affect the potential weather and subsequent impacts to the
area. They also affect the timing of the system. What is
consistent with the models are two rounds of precip. One on a warm
advection wing and the other with the passage of the surface wave.

Qpf will be the main concern with this system as thunderstorms will
likely lead to higher QPF in some areas. The ECMWF has the highest
qpf with a system that doesn't even phase. Wpc has around one inch
with this system. This far out, expect QPF forecasts to change and
be refined. I have little confidence in QPF amounts from the models
at this time.

As the system moves out, cold air moves into the area and may lead
to a transition from rain to snow. The 24 00z gem has around 0.75
inches of QPF that would fall as snow across our area on Saturday.

As mentioned above, do not have confidence in QPF amounts. Do think
that some flurries are possible as the system moves out.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1220 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
vfr will drop to MVFR overnight as bands of rain or showers
become more widespread. Increasing low-level saturation should
eventually lead to periods of ifr ceilings -- especially in the
steadier bouts of rain. There will probably be breaks in the
precipitation on Sunday south of kdbq, but showers should
redevelop during the afternoon or evening. Improvement to MVFR is
forecast into Sunday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 930 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
no significant chances have been made this evening for river
forecasts. The mississippi at quad cities ld15 is a 0.1 higher at
18.3' tomorrow, accounting for the more steady rise noted this
evening.

Previous discussion... Area tributary rivers continue to recede.

Meanwhile, the mississippi continues rising with moderate to major
flooding ongoing in much of the mainstem. The rises from around
the quad cities l d 15 on southward are mostly attributed to
routed water already in the river system. Meanwhile, upstream of
l d 15 slow, prolonged rises are expected throughout the next 7
days and beyond resulting from snowmelt across minnesota and
wisconsin.

The forecasts also take into account all of the rainfall expected
tonight through Sunday night, generally in the quarter to half
inch range. This rainfall should not cause any significant impacts
on area rivers.

With temperatures across the midwest and upper mississippi river
valley climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s this weekend,
expecting a ramp up of melting across much of the snowpack in
these areas. Morning analysis from nohrsc continues to show an
average of 2-4 inches of water equivalent locked in the snowpack
across minnesota and northern wisconsin, with some swaths of 5-6
inches.

The latest climate prediction center outlooks do signal a cooling
trend on temperatures back near to below normal late march through
early april. While snowmelt will continue across minnesota and
wisconsin, it will likely do so at a slower rate. As for
precipitation, the outlooks show our area being favored for near
to above normal precipitation into early april.

There will likely be another crest along the mississippi and its
tributary rivers when the snow across minnesota and wisconsin
melts. While the timing of this flood crest is uncertain, the most
likely time frame is april 10th through the 25th. If temperatures
across the midwest are warmer than the current forecasts and
outlooks, the next flood crest may move forward by 7 to 10 days.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Uttech
short term... Uttech
long term... Gibbs
aviation... Uttech
hydrology... Ervin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Platteville Municipal Airport, WI27 mi29 minS 1110.00 miOvercast41°F37°F86%1020 hPa

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.