Thursday, August24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 11:51 PM CDT (04:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug

Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 240430
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
1130 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017

Aviation update...

Issued at 1033 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
i've updated to add slight pops to the west after midnight through
Thursday morning, as the short term guidance solutions supporting
elevated showers are verifying. Bands of light to moderate showers
are expected to move towards the area overnight, and could result
in some spotty measurable rain. In the worst case for a few
isolated areas, a tenth of an inch could occur if the moderate
intensity would hold together.

The clouds arriving later will help keep temperatures a bit warmer
than earlier thought over iowa, and have bumped up temperatures to
the mid to upper 50s for lows there, but remained cool farther
east under the prolonged clear conditions.


Issued at 330 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
high pressure was centered over the central part of iowa this
afternoon leading to early fall like weather. Afternoon fair
weather cumulus clouds have formed across the area. Otherwise
temperatures in to 70s with low rh were reported across the area.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 330 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
two main forecast concerns in the short term forecast. The first
is the slight chance for rain across the area tonight into
tomorrow morning as a wave advects south into the great lakes and
the other are the temperatures tonight. Guidance is suggesting
clouds but with the clear skies and low TD and at sunset, could
see temps plummet.

All guidance suggests low end QPF across the far northern CWA as a
wave advects in from the NW flow. The hrrr has been consistent
with a band of light to moderate showers across northeast and east
central iowa towards daybreak. Main concern is that the best h5
forcing is to the north and east of the area and with dry air any
rain that forms will have a hard time making it to the ground.

With low confidence in this occurring, decided to keep schc pops
across the far NE and the rest of the area dry. This will need to
be watched by later shifts to determine if there is a greater
chance for rain later.

As far as temps tonight go, its going to be a race between
temperatures dropping fast and clouds moving in. With temps this
morning in the upper 40s, decided to keep them in the low 50s
across the area. Once the clouds move in think that the temps at
that time will be close to the actual lows. As far as lows went,
went with mosguide and tweaked a few degrees here or there for

Long term (Thursday night through next Wednesday)
issued at 330 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
Thursday night and Friday... Llvl ridge will look to maintain acrs
the western grt lks, while upper ridge undercutting upper wave trof
shifts slowly eats acrs the central plains. The jury is still out on
how much low to mid level moisture lee side elevated warm air
advection wing will have to utilize to try and produce some showers
acrs the mo rvr valley and ia, and suspect that the western CWA will
just have some ac, virga, or few sprinkles trying to spill in from
the west at times later Thu night into Fri morning. Still some
chance of at least patchy fog in the eastern fcst area late thu
night early Fri morning closer to lingering ridge axis and least
last in line for some cloud cover. Will play Thu night lows at the
coolest of guidance, or even undercut them in the east, again closer
to the ridge axis and light convergent easterly sfc wind regime.

With ongoing dry low to mid level east-southeast fetch, like the
drier 12z run NAM for fri... Again probably just mid level clouds and
mainly virga trying to make it into the western and northwestern
cwa. Below normal temps continue to end out the week. Elevated wing
of WAA showers to the lee of increasingly blocked northeastern
plains upper low, will then look to gather more organization fri
night, but mainly along and north of the CWA acrs mn into wi.

Saturday and Sunday... The latest run medium range models continue to
suggest a general blocked pattern to maintain over the weekend acrs
the grt lks, with increasing influence from the southwestern gulf
tropical system, as well as other waves off the atlantic coast. If a
cut-off upper low forms acrs mn by Sat night west of upper ridge
lobe over the eastern grt lks and james bay, a regional rex block
may keep this feature almost in place or just allow it to slowly
gyrate southward acrs or near the local area Sunday and into early
next week. Thus while Sat may largely be dry, sctrd shower chances
will then look to increase acrs the local area later Sat night into
Sunday. With early indications of limited moisture feed into this
system, just see light showers and sprinkles by Sunday, but
associated cloud cover and evapo-cooling may make the fcst highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 hard to attain.

Monday through next Wednesday... If the latest trends on the medium
range guidance and ensembles area correct, the blocked upper low
will look to rotate almost overhead Mon into tue, for continued
cloud cover and sctrd shower chances. Would think and thunder threat
embedded in the showers will be limited to only the afternoon, if
any happens at all. Temperatures will continue to be tied to cloud
cover and precip trends and fcst highs possibly optimistic this
period. Will have to watch trends of the western gulf to lower ms
rvr valley tropical system, as well as possible waves along the
atlantic as they will be big players in the synoptic scale pattern
evolution how long the upper system lingers locally early to mid
next week. ..12..

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1128 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017
vfr conditions are expected the next 24 hours, with mid level
clouds spreading over the region, along with virga and possibly a
few light showers. No visibility restrictions are expected, and
wetting rains remain a very low possibility of occurring. Winds
will be near calm overnight, then become southeast to east
Thursday morning after sunrise, and remain under 10 kts all day.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Update... Ervin
synopsis... Gibbs
short term... Gibbs
long term... 12
aviation... Ervin

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-Township Airport, IL27 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair58°F56°F95%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SFY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW5NW5W4NW7NW9
1 day agoSW7W5W10
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5CalmSE5E4S10CalmCalmCalmS6SW8CalmSW4S5S10S8SE9S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.