Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:17PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:02AMMoonset 2:38PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 241122 aaa
afddvn
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service quad cities ia il
622 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017

12z aviation update...

Synopsis
Issued at 246 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
early this morning a 992 hpa surface low was centered over lamar,
colorado. A surface trof extended NE from this low into western
iowa. Aloft, a strong h85 LLJ with speeds from 50 to 60 kts was
fostering strong WAA into the area. Temperatures have jumped
nearly 10 degrees in the past 4 hours in davenport. This low, and
the warming temperatures are the main forecast concerns in the
short term period.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 246 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
closed h5 low will slowly lumber to the east through the period as
a h25 jet streak translates north across the area. Model consensus
on precip chances is high, leading to a high confidence forecast
for precip. Precip should overspread the area from 21z to 03z
Saturday. As the jet streak moves north, intensification of the
precip should occur between 00z and 06z from south to north across
the area. This is reflected in some of the cam runs as well. Main
questions with this system are how much qpf, chances for thunder
and the strength of convection.

1. How much qpf; through 00z Saturday consensus in the guidance is
for around a 0.10 of an inch mainly west of the mississippi river.

Confidence is high in this occurring. After 00z, convective
elements associated with the jet streak across the area leads to a
higher spread in qpf. This means confidence in QPF after 00z
Saturday is lower and could range significantly, especially in
areas where convective elements make it through.

2. Chances for thunder; while overall model CAPE values are very
low, the dynamic nature of the system along with strong h5
divergence should lead to schc to chc thunder across the area,
especially this afternoon and evening as daytime heating is
maximized. Think the best chances for thunder will be associated
with the jet streak moving through the area later today.

3. Strength of thunderstorms; no severe weather is anticipated
with the low CAPE and low shear. H85 jet drops in magnitude
dramatically during the day today. As a result any organized
strong storm will need to be close sfc boundaries, non of which
are forecast across the area.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 246 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
moisture transport will continue through Saturday, with widespread
rains expected, especially along and north of the warm front, which
is should be generally be located near interstate 80. The upper low
moving toward the region will bring strong ascent through the day,
and as the dry slot nears the southern CWA by afternoon, there may
be a threat for shallow supercell thunderstorms along and just
south of the surface front. The threat for this is contingent on
surface heating near the boundary, and that is not yet a confident
feature in what could be a stratiform rain plagued environment.

None the less, if surface heating can attain mid to upper 60s with
dewpoints that should be in the mid to upper 50s, we could see
some mini supercell storms in the southern counties. Those storms
would likely carry a tornado threat along the boundary, and this
will need close attention Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Along and north of the boundary, with rains expected all day, while
not heavy the duration, it should be cool and damp, and a day held
to the 40s entirely possible. For now, with the boundary placement
not yet certain, I have gone near guidance south for highs, and
below guidance north. The counties near i-80 will have a large bust
potential as they could reach the upper 50s, or remain in the upper
40s, pending how far south the boundary lays out. It will be lake
enhanced as noted in previous afd issuance.

From Saturday evening through Sunday, the system will be occluding
overhead. That should result in less thunder, and a continuation of
light rain/drizzle/fog/just plain old damp weather. I have continued
pops on the higher side of guidance through Sunday, as there should
be plenty of opportunity for measurable light rain/drizzle through
Sunday afternoon. In fact, if, (big if), any Sun were for be allowed
Sunday, we could have additional shallow convective showers form.

Lacking the shear of Saturday, they should not have severe weather
threats if they form.

Monday another synoptic low should move past the region, and with
another closed mid level low pressure, I expected there to be a
solid rain shield moving along with the 850 to 500 low pressure
circulations, well north of the southern state's convection.

The weather remains active, and our guidance blend brings pops in
again by Wednesday afternoon again, after a dry Tuesday and Tuesday
night, lingering through Friday. There is little doubt that the wet
weather will bring rises to rivers, but we are just now beginning to
look at the impacts of this. I will leave this to the next shift to
comment on further as the RFC works through some of the longer range
qpf to suggest river impacts.

Ervin

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 622 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
vfr conditions are forecast through the next 10 to 12 hours at the
taf sites. Rain and potential thunderstorms will move into the
area near 00z Saturday. At this time, CIGS and vsbys will drop to
MVFR and possibly ifr overnight. With low confidence of ifr
occurring and it being after the next 6 hours, decided to leave it
out of the forecast.

Dvn watches/warnings/advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Gibbs
short term... Gibbs
long term... Ervin
aviation... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-Township Airport, IL27 mi15 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F46°F73%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from SFY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.