Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL
April 29, 2024 11:18 AM CDT (16:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 12:19 AM Moonset 8:45 AM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 291516 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1016 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Hydrology Update
KEY MESSAGES
- Active forecast remains through the long term, with near daily chances for precipitation after Monday.
- Temperatures will remain above normal through midweek, trending towards normal for the end of the week.
- Recent rainfall, along with the forecast for more this week, will result in rises along area rivers. River flooding is currently happening on some rivers, with the potential for more through the week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Through the day today, the upper low slowly pushes northeast into the northern Great Lakes. The associated surface low will follow a similar track, with a cold front dragging through our area shortly after noon. Any rainfall that we will see today will be confined to the early morning hours, as the overnight showers push out of the area. Moisture will be limited as we progress towards the afternoon hours, which will allow for a dry frontal passage. With more dry air working in, we will start to see clouds clear through the day as well. Surface high pressure will slide through our south this evening and tonight, which will allow for clear and calm conditions overnight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s and low 50s tonight as a result.
A quiet start to the week is expected. Happy Monday!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
A few disturbances are forecast to pass through the flow midweek, with the potential for a more potent wave to impact the area Thursday/Friday. Much of the week, above average temperatures will be seen, with most in the mid-upper 70s. Towards the end of the week, temperatures moderate near normal, as we will be socked in clouds and rain.
Tuesday, an upper wave will pass through the area, with the vort max forecast to pass through that evening. Compared to the last forecast package, this has gone down in intensity for our area, keeping the strongest forcing just north of the area. Guidance is in general agreement on seeing showers/storms with frontal passage that evening/night, but there are some differences with moisture content.
The latest trend is for a line of strong to severe storms well west of the area dying upon arrival in our area, leaving us with some scattered showers and storms in a broken line. With the vort max farther north, the best chance to see the stronger storms will be in our northwest, if the line stays organized upon arrival. Timing is generally captured well amongst guidance, with them also indicating that this will move through quickly. SPC introduces a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for our western counties. Confidence is low on severe potential, with the best chances west of the forecast area.
Although, we will continue to monitor as more short term guidance comes in.
After that system, we will start to see a potent wave deepen over the Rockies mid-late week. We will see a few leading impulses pass through the area, leading to persistent showers/storms for the remainder of the week. This will be a wet period, with the potential to see quite a bit of rain. With recent rains and more forecast, some rises along area rivers are expected. The parent wave developing is the one that has our attention though.
Although, there is plenty of uncertainty with this, as well as major timing differences amongst guidance. Although, all long term guidance shows this system. If this wave deepens enough and we get that negative tilt upon arrival, this will bring the potential for strong to severe storms late in the week.
Although, it is too soon to say for sure. WPC is highlighting our area in the risk for Excessive Rainfall from midweek through the end of the week, as they are currently forecasting between 1-3+ inches of rain by the week's end for some. Thus, flash flooding will be possible, as well as rises along area rivers.
So, just be mindful and stay up to date on our forecasts!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Spotty showers (20%) will linger through mid morning with the passage of a weak cold front along with a period of MVFR ceilings. There is a low chance (30%) of IFR ceilings at KDBQ this morning. As diurnal mixing increases, MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR late morning through mid afternoon. South winds will veer to WSW and become gusty at 15-30+ kts. Weak high pressure building in tonight will result in winds becoming light and variable. Can't rule out some patchy ground fog late in the period (after 08z) given the recent rain and a steep, shallow low level inversion, but confidence is too low for mention at this time.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The flood warning in effect for the Skunk River at Augusta has been cancelled this morning, as the river crested just below action stage overnight and continues to fall this morning.
Elsewhere, flood warnings continue for Wayland (Fox River) and Colmar (La Moine River). The former will drop below flood stage this afternoon, while the later remains on track to see moderate flooding through Wednesday as routed flow from overnight rains work through the basin.
Heavy rains remain possible later this week again as forecast by WPC. The timing of this rain would fall just past the crest on most active tributary rivers. Keep a general awareness of rivers in the week ahead, as this wet pattern continues to evolve.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1016 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Hydrology Update
KEY MESSAGES
- Active forecast remains through the long term, with near daily chances for precipitation after Monday.
- Temperatures will remain above normal through midweek, trending towards normal for the end of the week.
- Recent rainfall, along with the forecast for more this week, will result in rises along area rivers. River flooding is currently happening on some rivers, with the potential for more through the week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Through the day today, the upper low slowly pushes northeast into the northern Great Lakes. The associated surface low will follow a similar track, with a cold front dragging through our area shortly after noon. Any rainfall that we will see today will be confined to the early morning hours, as the overnight showers push out of the area. Moisture will be limited as we progress towards the afternoon hours, which will allow for a dry frontal passage. With more dry air working in, we will start to see clouds clear through the day as well. Surface high pressure will slide through our south this evening and tonight, which will allow for clear and calm conditions overnight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s and low 50s tonight as a result.
A quiet start to the week is expected. Happy Monday!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
A few disturbances are forecast to pass through the flow midweek, with the potential for a more potent wave to impact the area Thursday/Friday. Much of the week, above average temperatures will be seen, with most in the mid-upper 70s. Towards the end of the week, temperatures moderate near normal, as we will be socked in clouds and rain.
Tuesday, an upper wave will pass through the area, with the vort max forecast to pass through that evening. Compared to the last forecast package, this has gone down in intensity for our area, keeping the strongest forcing just north of the area. Guidance is in general agreement on seeing showers/storms with frontal passage that evening/night, but there are some differences with moisture content.
The latest trend is for a line of strong to severe storms well west of the area dying upon arrival in our area, leaving us with some scattered showers and storms in a broken line. With the vort max farther north, the best chance to see the stronger storms will be in our northwest, if the line stays organized upon arrival. Timing is generally captured well amongst guidance, with them also indicating that this will move through quickly. SPC introduces a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for our western counties. Confidence is low on severe potential, with the best chances west of the forecast area.
Although, we will continue to monitor as more short term guidance comes in.
After that system, we will start to see a potent wave deepen over the Rockies mid-late week. We will see a few leading impulses pass through the area, leading to persistent showers/storms for the remainder of the week. This will be a wet period, with the potential to see quite a bit of rain. With recent rains and more forecast, some rises along area rivers are expected. The parent wave developing is the one that has our attention though.
Although, there is plenty of uncertainty with this, as well as major timing differences amongst guidance. Although, all long term guidance shows this system. If this wave deepens enough and we get that negative tilt upon arrival, this will bring the potential for strong to severe storms late in the week.
Although, it is too soon to say for sure. WPC is highlighting our area in the risk for Excessive Rainfall from midweek through the end of the week, as they are currently forecasting between 1-3+ inches of rain by the week's end for some. Thus, flash flooding will be possible, as well as rises along area rivers.
So, just be mindful and stay up to date on our forecasts!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Spotty showers (20%) will linger through mid morning with the passage of a weak cold front along with a period of MVFR ceilings. There is a low chance (30%) of IFR ceilings at KDBQ this morning. As diurnal mixing increases, MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR late morning through mid afternoon. South winds will veer to WSW and become gusty at 15-30+ kts. Weak high pressure building in tonight will result in winds becoming light and variable. Can't rule out some patchy ground fog late in the period (after 08z) given the recent rain and a steep, shallow low level inversion, but confidence is too low for mention at this time.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The flood warning in effect for the Skunk River at Augusta has been cancelled this morning, as the river crested just below action stage overnight and continues to fall this morning.
Elsewhere, flood warnings continue for Wayland (Fox River) and Colmar (La Moine River). The former will drop below flood stage this afternoon, while the later remains on track to see moderate flooding through Wednesday as routed flow from overnight rains work through the basin.
Heavy rains remain possible later this week again as forecast by WPC. The timing of this rain would fall just past the crest on most active tributary rivers. Keep a general awareness of rivers in the week ahead, as this wet pattern continues to evolve.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Quad Cities, IA,
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