Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:28PM Monday May 29, 2017 10:39 PM CDT (03:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:36AMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 292313
afddvn
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
613 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017

Aviation update...

Synopsis
Issued at 236 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
cold air aloft is competing with strong late spring sunshine and
heating today. The result, a mild day, very deep mixing to around
800 mb, and winds that are sustained around 20 kts in the north
half, gusting to 30 kts. Humidity levels have also crashed with the
deep mixing, and as of 2 pm, are now around 30%.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 236 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
the memorial day mixing will decrease with sunset, and with that the
winds will drop off, and any isolated convection will dissipate
quickly. Thus far, this activity has held off into mn wi, but the
coolest pool of mid level temps steep lapse rates will arrive toward
late afternoon, so we may yet see those convective sprinkles work
through the north. After 9 pm, only a few patches of mid clouds will
be left, as temperatures begin to fall quickly. Light winds after
midnight are expected to allow of great radiational cooling, with
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday, very similar to today, clouds will arrive by heating and
advection from the northwest, and some isolated showers and even
more isolated strikes of lighting are possible during the afternoon.

Highs in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south are anticipated, with
breezy northwest winds during the afternoon.

Ervin

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 236 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
quiet and dry conditions will be seen Tuesday night and Wednesday as
high pressure moves through the area. Temperatures will average
slightly below normal.

The dry conditions will continue Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday
night and into Thursday morning, internal signals from the models
are indicating a thunderstorm complex developing near the
ne ia mo ks borders that moves generally east or a bit south of
east. Where the complex initially develops will be the key. Right
now the southwest third of the area appears to be favored area for
the complex to track through. However, the thunderstorm complex
would be in a decaying phase as it moves through the area.

Boundaries left over from this complex combined with differential
heating on Thursday should then set the stage for diurnal convection
to develop across the entire area Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night on...

Thursday night through Friday night the models diverge on their
respective solutions but suggest a more active weather pattern. The
gfs drops another large upper low into the great lakes. The
ecmwf cmc global have an upper low arriving but as a strong
shortwave from the plains Saturday into Sunday. However, the models
do show a front dropping into the area in the Thursday night into
Friday night time frame.

As a result, the model consensus has slight chance to likely pops in
the Thursday night through Friday night time frame. The northern
half of the area is favored for the higher pops. Temperatures should
average slightly above normal.

Saturday through Sunday, given the considerable differences between
the solutions of the global models, the models have slight chance to
chance pops for each time frame. The important thing to remember is
that there will be periods of dry weather over next weekend. A
possible period of dry weather is Sunday morning. Temperatures next
weekend should be close to or slightly below normal.

Sunday night Monday, the model consensus has mainly dry conditions
across the area as another cool canadian high pressure builds into
the midwest. Temperatures should average slightly below normal.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 612 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
gusty west to northwest winds will diminish to less than 10 kts by
sunset, then increase to 15 to 25 kts by mid morning Tuesday.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon, mainly in the vicinity of dbq and cid, but these are
not expected to be widespread enough to mention in the forecasts.

Otherwise,VFR conditions will remain in place throughout.

Hydrology
Issued at 1219 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
the mississippi river is in the process of cresting at ld11 and
dubuque. Based on flow data, it now appears that bellevue will
crest just below flood stage over the next 24 hours. The flood
watch for bellevue will be maintained through at least late this
afternoon.

The flood watch at keokuk continues. Flow data from upstream is
now suggesting that keokuk may reach flood stage in just over 3
days.

Downstream of bellevue, flood warnings continue. With the routed
flow becoming better known, there should be only minor
fluctuations in the crest forecast. The crest on the mississippi
will be a broad crest that will last anywhere from 1 to as much as
3 days depending upon the location.

By next weekend, the crest is forecast to be at or just south of
burlington.

Rainfall for the next 36 hours will be light. Starting late
Wednesday night there will be several chances for more rain. This
rainfall has the potential to affect the timing of and the
overall crest forecast south of the quad cities.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Ervin
short term... Ervin
long term... 08
aviation... Sheets
hydrology... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-Township Airport, IL27 mi64 minW 610.00 miFair65°F46°F50%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SFY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmW5SW3CalmS5NW5SW9W9W12
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W8W7W6NW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW6N7N5CalmCalmNW4NW3W6CalmW7W8
G17
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W6W3CalmS4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE4S4CalmCalmSW7W3SW5CalmCalmSW5N3NW4N6N4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.