Wednesday, December12, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:28PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 2:04 AM CST (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug

Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 120453
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
1053 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

06z aviation update...

Issued at 915 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
all indications suggest the incoming storm system moving through
late tonight is moisture starved and any appreciable precipitation
will likely be confined to areas along and north of the surface
low track. Have thus cancelled the winter weather advisory for a
couple rows of counties in eastern iowa, now confined to roughly
north of a line from cedar rapids to clinton, into whiteside
county illinois.

At 03z, the surface low pressure center was northwest of des
moines, while the strong upper level shortwave was moving into sw
mn. Area surface observations and satellite imagery showed only
high level cloud cover, outside low stratus over the snow cover
in mn and developing patchy clouds around 6000 ft in NW mo.

Precipitation was confined to a narrow band under the trough axis
from NW mn into far eastern sd. Kdvn 00z sounding showed a large
dry layer from around 925 to 500 mb in the airmass ahead of this
system. Available 00z models and high res convective models are
catching onto this dry air, coming to a near consensus with
sufficiently deep saturation, and resulting precipitation only in
the strong forcing ahead of strong shortwave, along and north of
the surface low path. This path is from roughly north of des
moines to dubuque roughly from midnight to 6 am. Further south,
forecast soundings show the dry layer below 500 mb holding on,
while moistening occurs in the surface to 850 mb layer in the low
level wrap around moisture following the system's cold frontal
passage Wednesday morning. This may lead to patchy drizzle, but
this is low confidence and would occur further into the daylight
hours with marginal temperatures and thus less likely to result in
ice accumulation. A glazing of ice still looks possible along the
highway 20 corridor toward morning, with measurable snow
accumulations likely confined to dubuque and areas eastward early
in the morning. Thus the advisory continues for these areas.

Issued at 245 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
we have enjoyed a mostly sunny day with a "heat wave" as
temperatures have pushed well into the 40s to near 50, especially
along and south of interstate 80. To the north, readings were in
the 30s. Nevertheless, temperatures today are well above normal.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 245 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
winter weather advisory in effect for portions of eastern ia and
northwest il, roughly along and north of interstate 80. A potent
but compact short wave in western sd seen on water vapor will
push quickly eastward. This system becomes negative-tilt and
evolves into a closed upper low as it pushes into southern wi
Wednesday morning. A period of decent forcing and warm air
advection processes should produce a period of light freezing
rain, freezing drizzle and snow later tonight into Wednesday
morning, which unfortunately will impact the morning commute.

This will be especially true for our northern half of the cwa,
while our southern half should have little if any precipitation
(forecast soundings indicate no saturation in the column and too
far from the forcing).

Hrrr namnest suggests a heavier band of precipitation (which could
be in the form of snow due to the stronger dynamics evaporative
cooling sweeping by) developing along hwy 20 around sunrise, but
then quickly shifting into southern wi and northeast il. If this
materializes, then a few spots may receive a little over an inch
of snow. This will be something for later shifts to monitor.

In general, snow accumulations of less than an inch with ice
accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch. While these amounts
are not necessarily significant, the problem will be temperatures
in the mid 20s to lower 30s during the mixed precipitation. This
would impact the morning commute and the reason for the headline
being issued.

The system quickly exits to our east by noon with a dry afternoon
expected on Wednesday. Lows tonight should drop into the mid 20s
to around 30 with dewpoints in the 20s and thicker clouds not
arriving until towards midnight. Highs on Wednesday should be
mainly in the 30s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 245 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
long term has two main themes, the first is an active flow at the
beginning with chances for mixed phase precip. Then the pattern
turns to a quiet pattern with above average temperatures. Unlike
the current system in the short term, the system on Wednesday night
into Thursday will have warmer air in place and thus more likely to
have rain than a mix.

Thursday night into Friday, a closed low is expected to be south of
the area as a trailing area of vorticity will stretch from another,
more progressive low across central canada into our area. This wave
is expected to lead precip across the area. With warmer temps,
there will be a lack of ice for snow formation. As a result, if
temps drop Thursday night to near freezing, there is a chance for
fzra across the area. Hires guidance suggests some ice accumulation
across the far southern cwa. At this time any freezing
accumulation will likely melt as temps rise on Friday. Later shifts
will need to keep an eye on this system.

After this, temperatures are expected to be above average through
the rest of the long term period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1052 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
a northward shift in the fast moving storm system will result in a
change to aVFR overnight forecast for cid, mli and brl. Dbq will
still see a period of light freezing drizzle or light snow toward
sunrise, along with MVFR ceilings. Stronger winds above the
surface will result in llws at brl. Further north, conditions
are more marginal with lighter winds aloft at mli and cid and
thus llws was not included. Brisk westerly winds will follow the
system by late morning along with a period of MVFR ceilings.

By evening, winds will be light as a surface ridge moves in.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon cst Wednesday for

Il... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon cst Wednesday for
carroll-jo daviess-stephenson-whiteside.

Mo... None.

Update... Sheets
synopsis... Haase
short term... Haase
long term... Gibbs
aviation... Sheets

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-Township Airport, IL27 mi68 minSE 810.00 miFair36°F28°F75%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from SFY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW4SW5SW7SW6CalmCalmCalmW4W4W3CalmCalmCalmSE4E5E6E5SE3SE5E3E3E3SE6SE7
1 day agoCalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW8SW12
2 days agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.