Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:37 AM

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LMZ878 Expires:202404270915;;437552 Fzus63 Kmkx 270152 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 852 pm cdt Fri apr 26 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure around 29.2 inches over the central great plains will lift into minnesota tonight, with gusty southeasterly winds expected. A few gusts late tonight into Saturday morning may approach gale force, especially in the northern half of the lake as the low continues to lift into lake superior. Winds will then become light and northeasterly Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low exits and a weak cold front drapes across central portions of the lake. Sunday into Sunday night, winds will become breezy and southerly south of the front and will become breezy and easterly to northeasterly north of the front.
a few Thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight across the southern half of the lake, lifting into the northern half Saturday morning. Additional rounds of showers and Thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few storms in the afternoon hours could produce locally gusty winds.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-270915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 852 pm cdt Fri apr 26 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms through early evening, then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday night - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Monday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 270501 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 101 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm. 80 degrees will be possible both weekend days.

- Periodic chances for rain and storms are expected between this afternoon and next week with tonight and Monday having the greatest chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

In a decoupling jet scenario with the Pacific jet taking over, an upper low deepens and drifts northeast from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains between this afternoon and Saturday. During this time, the warm front pushes through the area later this afternoon and tonight. Saturation appears fairly quick this afternoon and evening on model time-sections despite Td depressions between 20 and 30F. It is interesting to see much of the omega leaning westward with much of the large ascent and mid level vorticity staying there as well. It isn't until later tonight/early Saturday that the large ascent shifts eastward likely meaning rainfall will be focused westward as well. These leans are noticeable on the PWAT moisture content as well, as to where the maximums lie. Despite the 1 to 3 SDs above normal, it still appears the lack of instability and forcing tonight point to lesser QPF output, which appear to stay less than 0.25 aside from counties west of IN-31 where closer to 0.5" may be more in reach.

For the weekend, it appears there will be an opportunity to tap into effective shear during the morning hours, and with instability available, severe weather is possible. The main threat with that appears to strong winds and perhaps a stray spin up. Hail appears to be a lesser threat given the moist low levels during this time.
Another threat for thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, but the shear appears to be a little bit more sporadic and there's some question about how much instability might be left over at that point. We do actually get 60 degree dew points into the area during the afternoon and low level temperatures surpass the teens Celsius.
With some mixing, highs will be able to get into the 70s allowing for a warm day. Sunday has some instability around and a weak area of vorticity may be able to tap into it to create some thunderstorms during the morning. But dry air follows allowing for a rain-free afternoon. 70s and perhaps 80 degree highs will be in play for Sunday.

A cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. There is some shear to work with, although it appears to diminish by Monday morning. The moisture axis appears to stall out on Monday and may be able to refire in the I-69 corridor on east during the afternoon. Initial model output indicates some shear and instability will be available for showers and storms as well.

Some drying out appears likely for Tuesday morning behind the cold front. The ECMWF shows a dry solution as opposed to GFS/GEM which hold on to some precipitation. Perhaps they are keying into a warm front-like feature that rises north during the afternoon to form showers. Based on its history in these events, will lean towards the ECMWF at least with messaging. More confidence can be had with precipitation occurring in the area later Tuesday night as a shortwave moving through in the flow coincides with a cold front passage. Thunderstorms are also possible with both instability and shear present to be tapped into. It then appears that a break in the unsettled weather can be forecast after a cold front moves through Thursday night. Temperatures in the 70s will still continue through this period with Friday having a good chance to return to cooler temperatures. Once again, NBM probability of 1 inch in 24 hours is below 20 percent in any one period through this unsettled time frame indicating its sporadic nature and that its floor is low as far as QPF is concerned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After one round of rain yesterday evening, another round is on its way in as seen on local radar. Showers (and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder) alongside increased low level jet winds surge in the 06Z-12Z timeframe.
This will bring increased southerly winds with gusts near 25 to 35 kts at the surface through the day, but especially before 18Z.
Have kept the previous mentions of LLWS. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected through the TAF forecast period. There may be a brief few hours of VFR ceilings this late this morning/early afternoon, before ceilings drop again this evening as vicinity showers become possible once again.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.

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