Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:50PM Friday January 19, 2018 11:06 AM CST (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 825 Am Cst Fri Jan 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm cst this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of today..Southwest winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tonight..Southwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt by early afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Rain. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Rain. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201801192230;;682062 FZUS63 KLOT 191425 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 825 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...While high pressure of 30.3 inches remains steady over the Southeast, low pressure of 29.3 inches will cross eastward over Ontario today and this evening. An associated cold front will weaken as it moves over the northern part of the lake overnight. Weak high pressure of 29.9 inches will prevail over the lake Saturday into early Sunday. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop across the central Plains Sunday afternoon. As this moves northeast and deepens to 29.4 inches, a warm front will lift northward across the lake on Monday. The low will pass across the the lake on Monday night and onward to Quebec Tuesday, continuing to gradually deepen. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 191117
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 616 am est Fri jan 19 2018
partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected today as the moderating
temperature trend continues. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the mid to upper 30s. The warming trend will
continue into the weekend with highs on Saturday in the upper 30s,
and into the lower to mid 40s by Sunday. Chances of light rain
and drizzle will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday, with
rain becoming widespread later Sunday night into Monday as a
storm system emerges from the southwest united states. High
temperatures on Monday will range from 45 to 50 degrees, with
conditions turning colder for Tuesday behind this system.

Precipitation will likely end as a period of snow showers Monday
night into Tuesday.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 341 am est Fri jan 19 2018
quiet weather to continue in the short term, with primary forecast
challenge continuing to be temperature forecasts.

A broad, low amplitude southern canadian short wave will continue to
skirt across northern ontario this morning, with a strong zonal flow
pattern continuing from the high plains to the western great lakes.

This history of stronger zonal flow over the past few days has
allowed for enhancement of low level thermal ridging in the lee of
the rockies. Eastward progression of this canadian wave will allow
for primary low level thermal ridge to sink southeast across the
region later this afternoon in this evening.

Complicating factors for MAX temp forecasts once again today are
presence of very strong low level inversion with warm advection atop
lingering snowpack, and shallow mixed layer depths. Modest gradient
this morning and ongoing low level warm advection has allowed for
temps to hold in the lower to mid 20s most locations. Even with
shallow mixing today, magnitude of this incoming low level air
mass and good deal of insolation (some passing higher level clouds
today) should allow temperatures to reach above freezing for all
locations. Warmest low level temps are anticipated across the
northwest where more snow needs to be melted. Changes in snow
cover from northwest to southeast across the forecast area could
result in a smearing of the temp gradient to a broader region of
mid to upper 30s highs this afternoon. Once again, confidence in
how this will play out somewhat on the low side for first period
forecast given the competing factors at play. Despite shallow
mixing, similar wind profiles in place today with afternoon gusts
into the 20 to 25 mph range expected.

Passage of canadian short wave trough will allow associated sfc
boundary to stall just to the north-northwest of the local area
this evening, with gradually slacking low level height gradient
tonight. Did contemplate inclusion of some patchy fog late tonight
into early Saturday with slackening of this gradient and melting
snow, but confidence is too low to include at this time with
better surge of low level moisture holding off until later in the
weekend. Relatively mild mins tonight in the mid-upper 20s are
expected.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 341 am est Fri jan 19 2018
for Saturday, splittish eastern pacific flow will allow amplified
southern stream upper trough to emerge across the four corners
region. Isentropic ascent to gradually ramp up through the Saturday
night-Sunday period. Relatively shallow moisture depths Saturday
afternoon evening could yield more of an increasing drizzle fog
potential. Did add some mention of fog to the forecast for
Saturday night-Sunday with good deal of near sfc moisture via
snowmelt as higher dew point erodes remainder of snowpack across the
region. May still need to watch for a narrow window of freezing
drizzle potential Saturday evening across far north, but still
feel that near sfc sfc wet bulbs will transition to more
supportive of liquid p-types due to strength of advective fields,
and not expecting much of any impacts at this time with very low
mixed, light precip potential Saturday night.

Period of strongest moisture transport still appears to be
in the later Sunday night-early Monday period as channeled 50 knot
llj allows impressive, but narrow axis of deeper moisture to advect
across the area. Will maintain categorical rain pops through this
period with good upper support dynamics and some hints of coupled
jet structure early Monday morning. Some indications of weak
elevated instability with some non-zero chance of an isolated
thunderstorm. However, best quality moisture should get pinched
off south of the area late Sunday night, which should keep more
favorable elevated moisture profiles for isolated thunder south of
the region and will continue to omit for this forecast. Precip
amounts not expected to be overly impressive with this system due
to progressive nature of moisture axis forcing, and with gradual
snowmelt over the next few days, not anticipating any major hydro
issues at this time. Will have to monitor for some isolated ice
jam issues break-ups however. Rain should taper from west to east
Monday afternoon as dry slot noses across ohio valley, but wrap
around moisture and eventual approach of broad deformation zone
will allow for rain showers to transition to snow showers Monday
evening. Some light snow accumulations are possible, particularly
northern half of the area. While true lake effect is not expected
to be a major factor in this event, lake enhancement with this
deformation band could be something to watch for at least a couple
of inches of accumulation Monday night-early Tuesday for
southwest lower michigan.

Some trend over the past few cycles for weaker low level reflection
with this system, and thus higher end wind gusts in cold advection
occluded portion of the storm may not be as much of a concern as
previously thought. Wnd gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range still
appear to be a likelihood by later Monday into Monday evening
however.

Temps will moderate into the 40s by Sunday with warmest day of
the period immediately preceding frontal passage on Monday with
highs from 45-50. Turning colder for Monday night-Tuesday but
nothing of the arctic intrusion variety that we have been dealing
with recently. Near seasonable temperatures should hold through
the middle of next week before moderating again late week as next
larger scale western CONUS trough takes shape. A few weak clipper-
type systems may be progressing across northern tier for the wed-
fri timeframe, but moisture availability will probably be an
issue and nothing more than lower chance mention warranted.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 616 am est Fri jan 19 2018
vfr conditions are expected at the TAF sites. High pressure ridging
over ksbn kfwa will keep weather dry through the period. Somewhat
gustier southwest flow will continue through Saturday morning as low
pressure moves across ontario and into quebec, tightening the
pressure gradient. Gusts up into the low 20s are expected at ksbn
this afternoon.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Mcd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi36 min S 19 G 21 30°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi66 min SSW 12 G 17 30°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi66 min SSW 17 G 22 1011.4 hPa (+0.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi86 min SW 12 G 19 33°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi66 min SW 8.9 G 20 35°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.3)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi46 min SSW 17 G 22 35°F 20°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi73 minSSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair33°F18°F54%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW16SW12
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SW10S10S9S8S6S7S7S7S6SW9SW12
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1 day agoW16W18W17W16
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G23
2 days agoS4CalmCalmS5S5S5S6S5S3S3CalmE3E4E4CalmCalmS3S4CalmW8W12W15W14W17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.