Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:34PM Monday June 26, 2017 3:44 AM CDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 300 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west this morning and then northwest 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt backing to south. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt backing to northeast 10 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201706261530;;836919 FZUS63 KLOT 260800 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.3 inches extending from the northern to the central Plains and lower Ohio Valley will remain in this position today while weak low pressure of 29.9 inches moves across the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front from the low will move across Lake Michigan today. The surface ridge axis will lift north to the southern portion of the lake on Tuesday and then shift east, with the center of the high moving across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure of 29.4 inches will develop across the northern plains by Tuesday evening and will track over the northern portion of the lake on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The low will weaken north of the Great Lakes late in the week. Another weaker low around 29.7 inches may move over the southern tip of the lake on Friday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-261530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 260809
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
409 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
a cold day by late june standards is in store for the region with
highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. A series of
disturbances may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the
area through early evening. Tuesday will be dry with slightly
warmer temperatures. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night
into early Thursday and Friday into early Saturday with locally
heavy rain possible.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
today will be the coolest of the next several days as highs reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Series of weak disturbances noted on
water vapor and also reflected on radar with light showers here and
there from north central indiana back into southern wisconsin. Hi
res models all shows at least some limited shower development the
remainder of the night into Monday morning with hrrr slightly more
robust with a few heavier showers isol thunder. Afternoon heating
across the south as well as slightly steeper lapse rates from cold
pool aloft may also allow for isolated showers south of us-30. Hi
res models have backed a fair amount on coverage location of this
activity with much of it either isolated and or south of the area.

Enough factors still in play to warrant holding onto slgt chc to chc
pops through the day, focused north in the morning and then just
about anywhere afternoon. A few of the stronger showers or storms
could product locally gusty winds and some small hail given 500 mb
temps -20 to -22c.

A few showers may still linger early this evening, but expecting dry
conditions after as high pressure moves overhead. Lows will drop
into almost chilly values in the upper 40s to around 50 for late
june.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 406 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
Tuesday still looks to be the driest of the upcoming days as high
pressure drifts overhead. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures
will still be several degrees below normal. Upper level flow will
become somewhat zonal with a series of waves still expected to
move towards the great lakes by mid week with main trough digging
and moving in towards Friday.

Models continue to vary on eastward extent of convective potential
weds afternoon into thurs morning with one of these waves. GFS may
be suffering a touch of convective feedback, but nonetheless
signals a potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some severe
weather, mainly to locations just to our north and west.

Superblend of models increases pops to categorical late weds ngt,
which at this juncture may be overdone. Inherited likely pops in
the NW weds ngt and while some apprehension to leave in will keep
running with and remove any categorical mention. If rain can move
in, warm layer depth pushing 12,000 ft and pwats around 1.75
inches would yield some efficient rainfall. Similar, if not
somewhat higher numbers come into play by Friday with what may be
more widespread coverage across the area, especially fri
afternoon evening. Have held with likely pops as well in this
period.

Drier conditions will move in for the weekend with rain chances in
the offing just outside the current forecast period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 206 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
complex upper level flow pattern will continue this forecast
period. An upper level short wave across wisconsin will drop
southeast overnight and may be associated with a few more isolated
showers across extreme northern indiana southern lower michigan.

Will keep tafs dry due to expected low coverage and very low
confidence of shower occurring at terminals this morning.

Additional short wave energy will drop south-southeast from the
dakotas, reaching the mid ms valley toward midday. This short wave
may result in uptick in shower activity (isolated thunder
potential) this afternoon during peak heating, although best
chances may remain across northwest west-central indiana.

Instability profiles from near term forecast soundings also on the
meager side due to relatively deep mixing and thus will keep tafs
dry at this time. With this deep mixed layer, west gusts to
around 20 knots are expected once again today, diminishing early
this evening.VFR conditions to persist this period with the
relatively dry air mass keeping cloud bases AOA 5k feet.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz003.

Mi... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Fisher
short term... Fisher
long term... Fisher
aviation... Marsili
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 16 mi54 min NW 16 G 18 60°F 61°F3 ft1017.4 hPa (-0.5)53°F
45168 32 mi24 min WNW 16 G 23 61°F 67°F5 ft1017.7 hPa52°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi44 min WNW 19 G 21 61°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi24 min NW 16 G 21 63°F 68°F5 ft1018.2 hPa51°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi44 min WNW 17 G 21 60°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.5)
45174 44 mi24 min WSW 9.7 G 12 60°F 64°F1 ft54°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi64 min W 8 G 9.9 57°F
45029 47 mi24 min NW 18 G 23 61°F 67°F5 ft1016.9 hPa51°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi44 min W 9.9 G 13 58°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.1)
45170 48 mi24 min WNW 12 G 16 62°F 66°F4 ft54°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi44 min W 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 51°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi51 minWNW 11 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F51°F70%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W9W10W12
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W12W10W10W10W9W8W7W10W10
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1 day agoW9
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W11W13NW9W9W10W10NW6W7W6W8W6W6W7W6W10SW5W11
G20
2 days agoSW9SW10W9
G19
CalmE565NW6NW85W84W4W6W5SW5CalmW3W5W5NW7W6W9W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.