Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:58 PM CDT (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 9:13PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 253 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming east to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers this evening...then rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
Thursday..East winds to 30 kt. Rain in the morning...then rain with possible rain showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Thursday night..Northeast winds to 30 kt. Rain likely with pockets of rain showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then rain likely overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
Friday..North winds to 30 kt. Occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt possible. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201703300330;;275722 FZUS63 KLOT 291953 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 253 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.6 INCHES IS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.6 INCHES LIFTS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. A RIDGE AVERAGING 30.2 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW OF 29.6 INCHES WILL LIFT FROM TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-300330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 291930
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
330 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
rain will return to the area late tonight and persist through
Thursday evening. Rainfall amounts will be around an inch for most
locations. This may cause some minor flooding in low lying areas.

Thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow... Primarily from late
afternoon through the evening. There is a low chance for severe
storms south of highway 30 during this time. Rain showers continue
on Friday but dry conditions expected over the weekend. Highs on
Thursday will range from the 40s across michigan to the low 60s
across central indiana. Highs Friday into the weekend will generally
be in the 50s.

Short term (this evening through tonight)
issued at 330 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
quiet weather will continue through the evening as ridge axis
downstream of potent upper low folds over our area. Decaying
convection presently over illinois will struggle to reach our cwa
given persistent e/se flow until after 06z tonight and very dry air
aloft noted in 12z kdtx and kiln soundings. Radar mosaic looks
decent but ceilings are 6-10 kft. A stray sprinkle may survive into
our NW third this evening but best chances for rain will hold off
until after 09z when nose of southwesterly LLJ and associated theta-
e surge arrive. Clouds will obviously be on the increase overnight
but late arrival of veering winds and good warm/moist air advection
should still allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 30s to low
40s. No concern for mixed precip, even in far NE counties where lows
may touch mid 30s.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 330 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
rain and severe weather chances tomorrow are primary story for this
forecast package. Another very moist airmass is being drawn north by
this high amplitude southern stream wave. 850mb dewpoints hover
around 10c with pw values around 1.25 inches. Meanwhile, plenty of
dynamical support for uvm with coupled upper jet streaks (for a
time), diffluence aloft, and ample midlevel cva/height falls. 295k
isentropic fields are correspondingly impressive in the am WAA wing
with 40kts of sharp cross-isobar flow and mixing ratios climbing
above 6 g/kg. Rain virtually assured... Though likely won't be steady
through the whole day. Suspect a brief break in heavier rain in the
early afternoon... Between morning waa/theta-e surge and evening
arrival of cva bullseye and associated surface low/convergent
boundary. Storm total QPF anticipated to be around an inch for many
locations. Some minor/nuisance flooding may be possible in typical
low-lying areas given recent wet conditions but ground should be
able to absorb this rain without significant impacts. Latest river
forecasts holding in action stage at worst.

Severe weather threat appears low. As is typically the case in these
events, low to midlevel wind/shear values are more than adequate
with 40kt LLJ but destabilization remains highly questionable.

Latest guidance continues to hold surface warm front over our
southern CWA with ample clouds/precip earlier in the day to limit
surface-based destabilization. If there is a sufficient break after
midday precip, our far southern counties may destabilize enough to
support a few strong storms in the 21-03z period. However,
amplified/cutoff nature of parent trough suggests a slightly later
arrival of WAA precip (possibly mid-afternoon in eastern zones) that
will leave a very narrow window for sufficient diurnal heating. Hail
would be the main threat although isolated wind and tornadoes cannot
be entirely ruled out if instability axis creeps far enough north.

Certainly worth watching for our southern counties but threat does
appear low at this point.

Sporadic rain showers will continue through Friday as vort lobe and
deformation axis move overhead. Rainfall amounts during this period
will be much lighter and more scattered. Weekend looks much more
pleasant as ridge builds over the region. Not much CAA to speak of,
so high temps will hold generally in the 50s fri-sun, near average
for this time of year.

Wet pattern looks to continue into next week with one chance of rain
on Monday and another wed/thu. Still plenty of details to iron out
but looks favorable for several chances of decent rainfall. Temps
may be a touch warmer but no significant deviations from climo
expected at this time.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 151 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
vfr conditions through 04z with easterly winds sfc-aloft. As the
surface low and associated upr level trof meander through the
region expect to see the winds increase and become gusty during
the latter part of the forecast period. Abundant lift and
isentropic ascent along the northern cyclonic flow will saturate
the lower levels after 04z with increasing precipitation and much
lower cigs/vsby after 10z. Ifr and lifr conditions will persist
much longer in the western half of the CWA with a delay in the
east.

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Lewis
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi39 min NE 9.9 G 12 53°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi41 min E 12 G 17
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi39 min NE 18 G 21 39°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi59 min NNE 14 G 18 38°F 1021 hPa (-4.1)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi39 min NE 23 G 26 42°F 38°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Benton Harbor, Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi66 minE 710.00 miOvercast54°F32°F43%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr53333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E10E7E11E13E10E8E12
G17
E10E7
1 day ago33N63N4CalmNW3CalmN4N5464N73N5N665N5463N7
2 days agoCalmSW3SW4SW9W11SW13SW9SW8W10W9W7SW5N3W4CalmNW3Calm3NW3SW5N53N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.