Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 22, 2018 8:18 PM CST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 744 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southeast. Slight chance of rain this evening...then chance of rain overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 kt veering to west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Chance of snow and light freezing rain in the morning...then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..Southeast gales to 35 kt becoming south gales to 40 kt. Rain in the evening...then rain likely overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 45 kt diminishing to gales to 40 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201802231030;;400000 FZUS63 KLOT 230144 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 744 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.8 inches over southern Quebec will push to the east late tonight and Friday morning. A low of 30.1 inches will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley early Friday to the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon. High pressure of 30.5 inches will build across the Dakotas Friday and move to Quebec Saturday. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains Friday night and lift across Lake Superior Sunday at 29.0 inches. A 30.2 inch high will build over the Central Plains Monday and move to the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-231030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 222328
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
627 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 351 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
widespread significant flooding will continue over northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan with record crests expected
on several rivers. Light rain will return overnight into Friday
with a brief period of mixed precipitation is possible northeast
of a line from coldwater, michigan to napoleon, ohio late tonight.

Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will occur in the
evening with slowly rising temperatures overnight. Additional rain
chances will arrive Saturday into Saturday night.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 309 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
flooding concerns remain front and center for the next several
days as rivers across the area are in various states of flood and
forecasted rainfall causing lots of angst (and rightfully so)
regarding impacts on the rivers.

Somewhat drier air has overspread the area for the moment, with
the first of 2 surges of increased moisture and rain chances
arriving late tonight into Friday. Area of interest showing up
nicely on regional radars from east kansas to NW arkansas, moving
northeast to arrive in SW areas sometime after 6z Fri and then
rapidly spread NE from there. Models varying to some extent on
exact precip amounts, but do seem to still agree on heaviest
remaining either in our far SE counties or possible away from the
area. NAM is most aggressive with QPF with others more subdued.

Generally looking at a tenth of an inch NW to third of an inch se
with this system, which should do little to the overall trends in
rivers.

Trend continues to show slightly warmer lows and smaller area of
limited concern for freezing precip late tonight into early Friday
as temps will hover near freezing and could rise above by the time
the rain arrives. Have left a token slgt chc chc freezing rain in
far NE with eve overnight shift to monitor.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 309 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
the majority of Friday night will end up dry before concerns
increase for additional rainfall that could bring some impacts to
local rivers. Majority of models keep heaviest rainfall Saturday
into Sat night mainly SE of the area (ecmwf) or splitting the area
(gfs). NAM has a more concerning trend with more NW push of
precip, especially Sat afternoon into Sat night with run total qpf
ranging from 0.75 inches NW to over an inch and a half central se.

Depending how fast the precip arrives could be a mix of rain snow
on northern fringe of precip late Fri ngt into Sat am before warm
air overtakes the area. Current river forecasts go with more
subdued solutions resulting in very slow trends in all rivers vs
rapid jumps or changes. If NAM were to work out, could be more in
the way of impacts. Will update esf to address concerns and
continue to monitor.

Frontal boundary will surge across by Sunday morning, pushing the
rain out of the area and giving a much needed period of drying as
well as above normal temperatures. Next system may begin to arrive
by mid week, but only slgt chc chc pops warranted at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 627 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
general ifr expected this period with potential for a period of lifr
mid period as SRN plains disturbance and associated broad
precipitation plume lifts across the terminals toward daybreak.

Upstream boundary layer moistening within erly flow regime bears
watching though with potential dense fog development overnight
especially if drizzle activates within approaching warm frontal zone.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... Flash flood watch through Friday afternoon for miz077.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Lashley fisher
short term... Fisher
long term... Fisher
aviation... T
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi48 min E 8.9 G 12 39°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi78 min ENE 2.9 G 6 40°F 1031.2 hPa (-0.3)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi48 min E 13 G 20 38°F 1030 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi38 min E 12 G 13 35°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi78 min E 12 G 13 36°F 1029.8 hPa (-1.4)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi28 min E 15 G 16 37°F 34°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi25 minE 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast40°F30°F70%1030.9 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr34NE4NE5NE6NE44NE6N4NE3NE5NE5E8E9
G17
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1 day agoNW45NW6NW10N8N7NW7
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NW7N865N76--N6N846533
2 days agoS12
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W9SW4S5SW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.