Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:08 AM CDT (08:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 245 Am Cdt Thu Jun 21 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt overnight. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201806211400;;868691 FZUS63 KLOT 210745 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.7 inches over Iowa this morning will slowly move to central Illinois Friday morning and then to near Lake Erie on Saturday...as a weak ridge of high pressure remains stretched from the northern lakes region to New England. Weak low pressure will move across Ontario Saturday and into Quebec Saturday night. A trailing cold front will move south across the region Sunday night with high pressure of 30.2 inches moving across the Great Lakes on Monday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-211400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 210608
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
208 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 325 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
widespread rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms are
then expected to affect much of southwest lower michigan and
northern indiana on today as a storm system slowly approaches the
mid mississippi valley. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible
across these locations. The unsettled weather pattern will
continue tonight night through Friday night with continued
chances of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures today
will be in the 70s.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 325 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
after a brief lull this evening into the early overnight, active
period of rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue through
the remainder of the work week.

An upper level short wave across northeast illinois will continue
to drift across northern indiana this afternoon. Best chances of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening
will be following this upper forcing and associated southward
migration of near sfc trough axis. Instability is limited and
thunder should be more isolated in nature across the far
southeast. Could have a few downdrafts capable of some non-severe
gusts across the extreme southeast through around 00z. Lull in
precip chances should set up this evening, but additional
showers isolated storms may develop mid evening through the
overnight hours across southwest portions of the area in advance
of lead vort MAX lifting out of southern illinois. Near term
guidance does suggest secondary low level theta-e ridge trying to
nose into west central indiana toward daybreak Thursday as well.

Overall guidance has trended a bit faster with upper level low
digging across the mid ms valley on Thursday, and faster timing
with lead vort MAX in diffluent flow regime across the southern
great lakes ohio valley. As a result, bulk of deterministic
guidance has trended upward with rainfall potential on Thursday.

Much of the heavier rain should be tied to fairly strong low level
moisture flux convergence associated with warm frontal type
feature. This front will not make significant northward progress
during the day given digging nature to upper forcing. Based on
these recent trends, did increase pops for the day on Thursday,
with heaviest amounts of rain expected for areas roughly southwest
of a benton harbor mi to fort wayne in to lima oh line. Low level
convergence deep warm cloud depths relatively high pwats suggest
potential for some widespread rain amounts of an inch or more
across these locations Thursday Thursday night. Not much in the
way of severe weather threat given weak mid level lapse rates and
widespread clouds precip, and did maintain highest chance of
thunder across the far southwest. Forecast confidence with temps
on the low side given clouds precip, but did try and indicate
coolest mins in the lower 70s across the southwest where earlier
rain onset is expected.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 325 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
unsettled period will continue Thursday night through Friday night
as occluded system drifts south of the area. Track of the primary
upper low will result in extended period of wrap around moisture
residing across the area with several vorts wrapping cyclonically
from parent low to the south. Best convective chance still appears
to be across the southeast Friday afternoon evening as sfc
reflection slowly migrates northeastward. While a few strong
storms are possible, greatest concern over the next few days will
be on localized heavier rain amounts flooding as several rounds of
rain are possible. Chance of thunder should linger into Saturday,
particularly across the east where coolish mid upper level
profiles will persist with departing upper PV anomaly. A break in
the greater rain coverage should develop later Saturday into
Saturday night, but medium range models have been consistent in
bringing next short wave across the area on Sunday with another
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Passage of this short wave
will put local area downstream of upper level ridging that should
provide a dry start to next work week.

Ecmwf GFS are in fairly good agreement in next eastern pacific
wave impacting the region for midweek with another chance of
showers storms. An overall slightly cooler than normal period
shaping up through through Saturday with temps moderating back
into mid 80s by Wednesday. Some indications of heat dome building
once again for late next work into next weekend, just beyond this
forecast valid period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 140 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
low stratus will continue to impact the terminals through the
majority of the 06z TAF cycle. Convection southwest of the
terminals is expected to continue to move northwards with time to
potentially impact either terminal. Have inserted a vicinity
mention for the terminals as confidence on timing is low.

Additional convection is expected later on today. Best chances are
at ksbn so have gone with prevailing rain after 19z. Kfwa does
have a chance to be impacted by this second round of convection
but confidence is to low on timing. Light winds will prevail for
the majority of this TAF cycle.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 16 mi78 min NE 9.7 G 9.7 63°F 63°F1 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.2)61°F
45168 32 mi38 min E 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 70°F1 ft1010.1 hPa61°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi68 min N 1 G 5.1 65°F 1010.8 hPa (-1.4)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi28 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 68°F1 ft1009.7 hPa61°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi56 min E 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1010.4 hPa64°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi88 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 60°F
45029 47 mi28 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 69°F1 ft1010.3 hPa60°F
45170 48 mi38 min E 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 66°F1 ft65°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi68 min N 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi48 min NNE 15 G 16 63°F 63°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi75 minE 45.00 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE5E5E4E5E6E4E6E4E3NE4E6NE5CalmE4NE7NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN44NE4
G16
E6E9E9E8NE7E7E6E6E6E7E5E3CalmE6
2 days ago--SW9SW7SW11SW13
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G28
3W56CalmCalmCalmNW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.