Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:23 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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LMZ878 Expires:202405180330;;382386 Fzus63 Kmkx 171949 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 249 pm cdt Fri may 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 29.8 inches will remain over lake michigan through Saturday. Areas of marine dense fog across the southern half of the lake will likely linger into tonight. Fog may also redevelop across the remainder of the lake tonight.
a weak low pressure trough around 29.8 inches will cross lake michigan Saturday night bringing a chance for showers, then high pressure will strengthen to 30.0 inches overhead on Sunday. Weak low pressure will bring chances for showers and Thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, then a stronger low pressure of 29.3 inches will cross lake superior Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring additional storm chances. South winds will be around 20 knots Monday and Tuesday night as the lows approach.
lmz080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-180330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 249 pm cdt Fri may 17 2024
two rivers wi to manistee mi south - .
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Saturday - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to south. Patchy dense fog. Waves 1 ft or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KIWX 172325 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 725 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible tonight and a few locations could see locally dense fog.

- Warm conditions for this weekend into Tuesday. Highs Sunday through Tuesday into the lower to middle 80s.

- A potential for more organized storms with some strong/severe potential late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but still low confidence on timing and extent of severe threat.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Still with some moisture around south of US-24 and lingering forcing around may allow a shower or storm this afternoon before dissipation occurs with the diurnal curve. With winds dying off, clouds clearing out, and winds going light to calm, can see another instance of fog formation taking place tonight into Saturday morning. The moisture axis pulls farther away from the area for Saturday afternoon causing dew points to struggle to reach 60F degrees and making shower and storm chances a little more difficult especially with surface high pressure and mid level ridging beginning to build into the west.
Some convergence from a slowed up baroclinic boundary to our west or a lake breeze may make a shower or storm possible there, thinking the chances will be lesser than today and yesterday. A similar day to today and Saturday will be in store for Sunday with more pop showers and possible especially during the afternoon. Minimal forcing is available aside from any lake breeze that forms, but the instability is much higher on Sunday than Saturday and today. Shear is still non-existent through all 3 of these afternoon chances limiting the extent of severe weather expected. DCAPE is much higher on Sunday, though, so if a storm can form on Sunday, there is a potential for downdrafts within those storms. A warming trend is expected for highs and lows over the next couple of days making upper 70s possible for today's highs, low 80s for Saturday, and mid 80s for Sunday.

Surface high pressure shifts eastward, but the mid level ridging still tries to hang behind overhead. Meanwhile trough builds in to our west in the Western CONUS allowing waves of vorticity to pass by to our west and north. Their close enough in proximity to not completely rule out a shower or storm in our Lake MI-adjacent counties with the greatest chances occuring Monday night. This is as the low level jet finally builds into our west. There appears to be a break in forcing that may keep organized storm activity at bay Tuesday before a low pressure system sliding through the Western Great Lakes region pushes its cold front through the area in conjunction with some mid level vorticity Tuesday night. Some shear may be available with this so could see some stronger storms around.
DCAPE reaches 900 J/kg during the daytime Tuesday, but may be on the decline before the shear arrives Tuesday night. So any pop storm Tuesday could tap into that making a downburst possible then. Mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km also look to eject towards the area from the Plains and provided that airmass isn't modified by the time it arrives, large hail could be a hazard in addition to damaging wind gusts as that cold front moves through.

Recent model runs have been slowing down the FROPA for early/mid next week, but am still holding out some hope of a drier Wednesday with the ECMWF showing the moisture axis/cold front shifting out of the area by midday Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GFS holds the baroclinic boundary/cold front back, allowing a wave of low pressure to form along it keeping weather active on Wednesday instead. Will still have chance PoPs for Wednesday to cover the GFS's solution.

Have more confidence of a dry Thursday with both models bringing the front through by Thursday morning providing surface high pressure.
This would allow highs to trend back toward the mid to upper 70s for the mid to late week period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Fog and low stratus potential early Sat morning will be the primary aviation concern this period. Light winds and residual boundary layer moisture will support the potential for fog late tonight but it will likely be more patchy and less dense than last night. Slightly higher confidence at KFWA based on latest guidance but overall not a high confidence forecast at either site given mixed/weak signals in the latest forecast soundings.
Will hold with 1-2SM visibilities for now and let later shifts monitor trends. Otherwise dry and VFR for the rest of the period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Saturday night for INZ005- 012>015-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ078-177-277.
MARINE...None.

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