Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winthrop Harbor, IL
March 19, 2024 6:55 AM CDT (11:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:53 AM Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 1:30 PM Moonset 4:40 AM |
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon - .
Today - Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering west late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon veering northwest late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday - Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north after midnight. Mostly clear through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ600
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 191127 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 627 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Windy today with an elevated risk for the spread of brush fires.
- Period of snow late Thursday night into Friday AM with a 60% chance for minor slushy accumulations along/north of I-88.
- Active weather pattern sets up early next week with widespread precipitation likely (70+% chance).
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Through Thursday:
A windy, dry and seasonably mild day is in store today. A cold front currently across Minnesota will quickly shift southeast across the forecast area early this morning. While a pre-frontal 50-60 knot low-level jet will exhibit diurnal weakening this morning, an already mixed PBL will quickly tap into the base of the jet shortly after sunrise. In fact, we are already seeing some gusts to 25 mph as of 3am. Expectations are for WSW winds to gust to 40 mph for a few hours mid to late morning before abating early this afternoon. However, an increasingly favorable isallobaric gradient within post-frontal CAA beginning late this afternoon should support a renewed increase for WNW gusts to 35+ mph. Gusty conditions will persist in a gradual weakening trend through tonight.
Though rain late last week mitigated fire weather concerns for several days, the recent breezy/windy and dry days have also allowed fine fuels to becoming increasingly dry. Meanwhile, robust mixing today will partially offset post-frontal low-level moisture advection this afternoon to produce minimum RH values as low as 30-35%, particularly south of the Kankakee River Valley. The combination of the factors above warrants the issuance of an SPS today for an elevated risk of the spread of brush fires.
Continued CAA tonight will usher in a period of seasonably cold conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs generally in the upper 30s and low 40s. After mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, mid-level clouds will expand across the region in response to a low-level f-gen circulation to the southwest.
Given a fairly dry airmass and recent guidance favoring any potential precip to remain safely southwest of the CWA, will not include any PoPs at this time.
Kluber
Thursday Night through Monday:
Attention turns to our next weather maker which arrives during the Thursday night into Friday morning period. This is associated with a shortwave expected to dive southeast across the Northern Plains toward the region during this period. In response to this wave, a weak surface low develops in western NE/SD. Out ahead of the surface low, modest warm advection sets up, aided by a 40-50kt low level jet, which results in precipitation developing to its northeast. As the surface low weakens and translates eastward this area of precipitation expands across the area. There is strong lift within the saturated layer with this system, peaking Friday morning.
Questions remain as to what the vertical temperature profiles will look like and where the rain/snow line ultimately sets up.
While there continues to be a fair amount of variability in the operational runs (including a signal for a narrow swath of locally higher amounts), global ensembles have remained fairly consistent.
There is still some time to hone in on the details given the energy for this system is still nearly 1000 mi west of California over the Pacific. Accordingly, plan to maintain the potential (60%) for minor slushy accumulations for areas mainly along and north of I-88 (highest toward the WI/IL state line).
The only notable change has been for a slower arrival, with the highest QPF (and accordingly snow amounts) occurring Friday morning. This could result in a slowed and slippery travel for the Friday morning commute.
Surface high pressure settles into the region to start the upcoming weekend bringing dry and continued cool conditions with high temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s.
Sunday onward favors a more active weather pattern as a deep western CONUS upper trough begins to eject east of the Rockies.
There continues to be ensemble support for a potent system (or systems) to develop to the lee of the Rockies which, depending on the timing of these features, would bring periods of inclement weather to the region. Still plenty to watch for over the coming days, though at this range it looks like we are leaning toward the warmer side.
Petr
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The only aviation weather concern remains a period of strong southwest winds developing this morning and continuing through the afternoon, gradually turning west and then northwest through the day. Expect sustained winds nearing 20 kt and gusts around 35 kt at times this morning as a strong low-level jet drifts over the area. The higher gusts ease some late morning/early afternoon (upper 20 kt range) as the LLJ weakens, though surface wind gusts may increase yet again to above 30 kt by mid-late afternoon due to deeper mixing. Winds then ease after sunset still of the northwest with sporadic gusts to around 20 kt expected overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with SCT-BKN mid-upper clouds at times.
Petr
MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A 50-60 knot low-level jet shifting southeast across southern Lake Michigan this morning combined with a well-mixed low-level environment will support a period of frequent WSW gales to 35 knots through this morning. Some of these gales may briefly reach 40+ knots mid to late morning, especially for any higher platforms closer to the shore. While winds will diminish this afternoon behind the passage of a cold front, sporadic WNW gale gusts may continue into the evening.
Kluber
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
There is an elevated fire danger today across all of northern IL and northwest IN.
SW winds are expected to gust as high as 40 mph mid to late morning before gradually becoming WNW with gusts of 30-35 mph behind a cold front this afternoon. Dewpoints in the teens early this morning will slowly increase through the day, though there remains uncertainty for how fast dewpoints increase. Current forecast RH values this afternoon will fall into the 30 to 35 percent range, which is above local Red Flag Warning criteria of 25 percent. 10hr fuel moisture values slightly below 10 percent this afternoon combined with the gusty winds and RH values noted above supports the issuance of a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire danger conditions today. At this time, it is not expected that Red Flag Criteria will be met.
Kluber
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Thursday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 627 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Windy today with an elevated risk for the spread of brush fires.
- Period of snow late Thursday night into Friday AM with a 60% chance for minor slushy accumulations along/north of I-88.
- Active weather pattern sets up early next week with widespread precipitation likely (70+% chance).
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Through Thursday:
A windy, dry and seasonably mild day is in store today. A cold front currently across Minnesota will quickly shift southeast across the forecast area early this morning. While a pre-frontal 50-60 knot low-level jet will exhibit diurnal weakening this morning, an already mixed PBL will quickly tap into the base of the jet shortly after sunrise. In fact, we are already seeing some gusts to 25 mph as of 3am. Expectations are for WSW winds to gust to 40 mph for a few hours mid to late morning before abating early this afternoon. However, an increasingly favorable isallobaric gradient within post-frontal CAA beginning late this afternoon should support a renewed increase for WNW gusts to 35+ mph. Gusty conditions will persist in a gradual weakening trend through tonight.
Though rain late last week mitigated fire weather concerns for several days, the recent breezy/windy and dry days have also allowed fine fuels to becoming increasingly dry. Meanwhile, robust mixing today will partially offset post-frontal low-level moisture advection this afternoon to produce minimum RH values as low as 30-35%, particularly south of the Kankakee River Valley. The combination of the factors above warrants the issuance of an SPS today for an elevated risk of the spread of brush fires.
Continued CAA tonight will usher in a period of seasonably cold conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs generally in the upper 30s and low 40s. After mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, mid-level clouds will expand across the region in response to a low-level f-gen circulation to the southwest.
Given a fairly dry airmass and recent guidance favoring any potential precip to remain safely southwest of the CWA, will not include any PoPs at this time.
Kluber
Thursday Night through Monday:
Attention turns to our next weather maker which arrives during the Thursday night into Friday morning period. This is associated with a shortwave expected to dive southeast across the Northern Plains toward the region during this period. In response to this wave, a weak surface low develops in western NE/SD. Out ahead of the surface low, modest warm advection sets up, aided by a 40-50kt low level jet, which results in precipitation developing to its northeast. As the surface low weakens and translates eastward this area of precipitation expands across the area. There is strong lift within the saturated layer with this system, peaking Friday morning.
Questions remain as to what the vertical temperature profiles will look like and where the rain/snow line ultimately sets up.
While there continues to be a fair amount of variability in the operational runs (including a signal for a narrow swath of locally higher amounts), global ensembles have remained fairly consistent.
There is still some time to hone in on the details given the energy for this system is still nearly 1000 mi west of California over the Pacific. Accordingly, plan to maintain the potential (60%) for minor slushy accumulations for areas mainly along and north of I-88 (highest toward the WI/IL state line).
The only notable change has been for a slower arrival, with the highest QPF (and accordingly snow amounts) occurring Friday morning. This could result in a slowed and slippery travel for the Friday morning commute.
Surface high pressure settles into the region to start the upcoming weekend bringing dry and continued cool conditions with high temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s.
Sunday onward favors a more active weather pattern as a deep western CONUS upper trough begins to eject east of the Rockies.
There continues to be ensemble support for a potent system (or systems) to develop to the lee of the Rockies which, depending on the timing of these features, would bring periods of inclement weather to the region. Still plenty to watch for over the coming days, though at this range it looks like we are leaning toward the warmer side.
Petr
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The only aviation weather concern remains a period of strong southwest winds developing this morning and continuing through the afternoon, gradually turning west and then northwest through the day. Expect sustained winds nearing 20 kt and gusts around 35 kt at times this morning as a strong low-level jet drifts over the area. The higher gusts ease some late morning/early afternoon (upper 20 kt range) as the LLJ weakens, though surface wind gusts may increase yet again to above 30 kt by mid-late afternoon due to deeper mixing. Winds then ease after sunset still of the northwest with sporadic gusts to around 20 kt expected overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with SCT-BKN mid-upper clouds at times.
Petr
MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A 50-60 knot low-level jet shifting southeast across southern Lake Michigan this morning combined with a well-mixed low-level environment will support a period of frequent WSW gales to 35 knots through this morning. Some of these gales may briefly reach 40+ knots mid to late morning, especially for any higher platforms closer to the shore. While winds will diminish this afternoon behind the passage of a cold front, sporadic WNW gale gusts may continue into the evening.
Kluber
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
There is an elevated fire danger today across all of northern IL and northwest IN.
SW winds are expected to gust as high as 40 mph mid to late morning before gradually becoming WNW with gusts of 30-35 mph behind a cold front this afternoon. Dewpoints in the teens early this morning will slowly increase through the day, though there remains uncertainty for how fast dewpoints increase. Current forecast RH values this afternoon will fall into the 30 to 35 percent range, which is above local Red Flag Warning criteria of 25 percent. 10hr fuel moisture values slightly below 10 percent this afternoon combined with the gusty winds and RH values noted above supports the issuance of a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire danger conditions today. At this time, it is not expected that Red Flag Criteria will be met.
Kluber
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Thursday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 8 mi | 55 min | SW 8.9G | 32°F | 29.77 | |||
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 8 mi | 115 min | SSW 8G | 31°F | ||||
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 37 mi | 45 min | SW 13G | 31°F | ||||
CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 40 mi | 35 min | SW 31G | 33°F | 16°F | |||
OKSI2 | 40 mi | 115 min | W 6G | 34°F | ||||
45214 | 44 mi | 85 min | 40°F | 5 ft | ||||
CNII2 | 44 mi | 25 min | SSW 7G | 31°F | 15°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 4 sm | 64 min | SW 16G24 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 28°F | 14°F | 54% | 29.78 | |
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 11 sm | 62 min | SW 15G24 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 32°F | 16°F | 51% | 29.75 | |
KRAC BATTEN INTL,WI | 20 sm | 62 min | SW 16G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 30°F | 12°F | 47% | 29.76 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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