Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:25PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:12 AM CST (10:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Am Cst Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Today..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the morning, then building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201711212200;;736422 FZUS53 KMKX 210906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 305 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 210805
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
205 am cst Tue nov 21 2017

Short term
107 am cst
through Wednesday...

the story of the next few days will be the temperature swings
along with occasional windy periods. Today we take the ride back
downward as deep low pressure across lake superior will steer a
cold front across the region today.

There is a lead shortwave across southern mn and several others
in the NW flow on the south side of the low driving some mid and
upper level cloudiness, but the focus will be on the deeper trough
axis across northern mn. Model guidance is in good agreement in
driving this energy southeastward today. We do not think this
will be a big deal for our area precip-wise, but several short
term guidance sources paint some light QPF with this wave noted by
some 850 mb fgen, compact omega rh signal as the front shifts
through. The main focus is along and southeast of chicago into
northwest indiana and across east central illinois, but some virga
or very light precip may fall across northeast il as well. Low
level positive energy forecast suggests enough low level warm air
lingers for rain to be the dominant p-type, but cannot rule out a
few snowflakes toward the tail end as the colder low level air
arrives. And the cold air will be noted after a mild Monday, as
the colder air will cruise on into north central illinois not long
after daybreak and spread southeast through the day.

The wave will quickly depart this evening, but the cold northwest
winds will remain in its wake. Lows will fall to near 20 in the
north, mid 20s southeast and in chicago. The surface ridge will
shift over the area on Wednesday. Winds will slacken some, low
level warm advection will ensue, and there should be plenty of
sun, but highs will struggle to reach 40.

Kmd

Long term
107 am cst
Wednesday night through Monday...

another much weaker wave will slide through wisconsin Wednesday
night with precip staying north as the ridge axis will stretch out
southeast of the area across the ohio tennessee valleys into the
mid atlantic. A secondary high will be in place over the area for
thanksgiving day, which will allow temps to recover to the lower
40s. This is still below normal, but with the high resulting in
likely our lightest wind day of the week, all in all pleasant
weather conditions for the holiday.

Friday will be a repeat of yesterday (Monday), as gusty southwest
winds will develop ahead of deepening low just north of lake
superior. The low level thermal fields support even warmer highs
than Monday, which were in the low to mid 50s area wide. The only
kicker will be there may be a bit more cloudiness as the upper
forcing is a bit farther south with this wave. Models still don't
paint much precip again and very well could end up dry, but have
some close bay to warrant not removing a model blend of low
chances. The cold air behind this system does not come slamming in
that quickly but gets reinforced through the weekend, thus highs
Saturday will reach the 40s, then only the 30s Sunday. High
pressure will mean weakening winds, dry conditions, and sun.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

the gustiness of the south to southwest winds will likely grow
less frequent with time leading up to sunrise. Recent acars
soundings show winds around 2000ft have increased to around 50 kt
and while these winds will slowly ease overnight and veer more
westerly, the corresponding easing of the sfc winds will likely
result in a continued threat of llws. The llws threat should
diminish after sunrise and end altogether with cold frontal
passage Tuesday morning. Behind the front, winds will shift to
northwest and likely become gusty again as colder air spills into
the area.VFR CIGS will likely persist through the period,
gradually lowering, especially behind the front Tuesday afternoon.

Marine
205 am... Deep low pressure just north of lake superior early this
morning will move into northern quebec tonight as it slowly
weakens. A trailing cold front will move across lake michigan this
morning shifting southwest winds to the northwest. The gales will
likely diminish toward 30kts with the front but a period of low
end gales is possible behind the front... Which may last into early
this evening... But confidence is low. A large area of high
pressure will build across the plains Tuesday night and then
extend east into the ohio valley Wednesday night. Strong low
pressure will move across ontario Friday and Friday night with a
tight southwest pressure gradient developing over the lakes
region. Southwest gales are possible again Friday morning into
Friday evening... With a cold front shifting winds northwest by
Saturday morning with gales still possible behind the front. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Il nearshore waters until 6 am Tuesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... 6 am Tuesday to 6
pm Tuesday.

Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779 until 3 pm Tuesday.

Gale warning... In nearshore waters until 10 am Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi72 min SW 13 G 27 47°F 1002.7 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi32 min WSW 19 G 29 46°F
FSTI2 35 mi132 min SW 23 44°F
OKSI2 40 mi132 min W 8.9 45°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi22 min SW 15 G 18 45°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi22 min SSW 28 G 30 45°F 33°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi82 min WSW 25 G 29 47°F 48°F8 ft1002.6 hPa (-0.5)
CNII2 44 mi12 min S 8.9 G 16 43°F 30°F
JAKI2 49 mi132 min WSW 12 44°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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S10
G15
S12
G18
S11
G17
S13
G19
S12
G18
S17
G23
S13
G19
S17
G22
S19
G25
S17
G23
S15
G23
S14
G22
S14
G23
S17
G27
S18
G26
S16
G22
S16
G29
S18
G25
S21
G27
S17
G23
S15
G21
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G23
S14
G20
S15
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1 day
ago
NW11
G16
W7
G11
NW12
G17
W10
G19
W12
G18
W9
G14
SW9
G14
SW13
G18
SW10
G15
SW7
G15
W9
G13
W8
G15
SW8
G13
SW7
G10
SW6
G11
SW8
G11
SW4
G7
SW8
G13
SW9
G13
SW7
G12
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G10
SW10
G13
SW9
G12
S9
G12
2 days
ago
N2
N11
G14
N12
G19
N9
G17
NW16
G23
N19
G27
NW24
G31
NW20
G31
NW19
G30
NW12
G18
NW15
G22
NW18
G29
NW17
G24
NW15
G25
NW14
G24
NW13
G19
NW15
G22
NW13
G21
NW7
G14
NW15
G21
W10
G15
W8
G17
W12
G17
NW8
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi17 minSW 13 G 2010.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1003.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi19 minWSW 15 G 2210.00 miFair44°F30°F60%1003 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi19 minWSW 13 G 2210.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1003.2 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14SW10SW10SW13SW18
G25
SW18
G26
SW18
G26
SW13
G20
SW16
G23
SW16SW18
G25
SW17
G23
S20
G27
SW19
G30
SW20
G31
SW21
G30
SW20
G31
SW20
G30
SW20
G28
SW16
G26
SW15
G27
SW18SW17
G26
SW13
G20
1 day ago5
G17
W9
G17
W8NW8NW12
G21
NW10
G18
W8W11
G18
W10
G18
W7
G17
W7
G17
6346W6SW6SW8SW8SW9
G18
SW11
G15
SW9SW13SW10
2 days agoN7N9
G15
N7N7
G15
N11
G22
N12
G19
N9
G16
N8
G18
N8
G15
N12
G22
N11
G21
N14
G21
N11
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N10
G19
NW10
G18
NW8
G16
NW11
G22
NW6
G18
NW7NW8
G16
NW9NW95NW10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.