Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 29, 2017 12:39 AM CDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 908 Pm Cdt Sun May 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201705291015;;373354 FZUS53 KMKX 290208 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 908 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-291015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 290518
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1218 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

Short term
151 pm cdt
through Monday...

a cold front has pushed across northern illinois and northwest
indiana earlier today with convection early this afternoon in the
vicinity of the front, primarily over northern indiana, but
clipping benton county. Behind the front, northwest winds have
overspread most of the CWA with modest instability in place, but
weakly capped or uncapped per rap soundings. There will be two
areas to keep an eye on through the afternoon and evening for
potential showers and thunderstorms. The first will be associated
with the lake breeze in and around the chicago metro area this
afternoon. A strong thunderstorm has already developed on the
boundary and additional isolated showers and storms will be
possible through the afternoon. Farther west, a secondary surface
trough is evident in obs while a CU field has developed within the
vicinity of the trough that stretches from central wi into far nw
il an eastern ia. There is potential for isolated to widely
scattered convection as this area moves across the CWA mid to late
this afternoon and into the early evening. With only 500-700 j kg
mlcape and 20-30kt deep layer shear in place, severe threat is
not a big concern, but cannot rule out the potential for a few
storms to become strong. Cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds
would be a concern for any outdoor events.

Threat for precipitation should wane diurnally with dry conditions
expected overnight into Monday morning. Upper low is expected to
pivot across the western great lakes tomorrow while a sheared vort
lobe drops into northern illinois. Forecast soundings tomorrow
are not too terribly different than today indicating steep low
level lapse rates with modest instability and little or no
convective inhibition. Given the favorable diurnal timing of the
shortwave, anticipate widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
will once again be a possibility. Temperatures will also be
fairly similar tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s. Deep mixing and
breezier conditions will be in place though, so there is a lower
likelihood of a lake breeze.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
213 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

the upper level trough spreads over the region Monday night. Cooler
air will lead to lows in the low 50s. Soundings are pretty dry so
kept a dry forecast going after any lingering showers exit to the
east Monday evening. Another vorticity streamer rotates around the
upper level low and it may kick off showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday will also be cooler with highs around 70.

High pressure builds over the plains Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the upper level low slowly shifts east. Wednesday will be
dry and cooler day with highs around 70.

My confidence is lower when it comes to Thursday's forecast. The
gfs features a shortwave trough and convection spreading across the
region Thursday afternoon. The 12z emcwf, on the other hand, has a
much subtler wave, but does have a little QPF Thursday afternoon.

Decided to keep a chance of showers and storms in for Thursday, but
think the GFS is suffering from convective feedback. Warmer air
moves in aloft, but not sure how much cloud cover we will have, so
kept temps in the 70s.

Late this week looks active with many periods of showers and storms.

A low is forecast to form and move through the midwest Saturday
night with another push of cooler air moving in behind it Sunday.

Jee

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

gusty west winds and slight chance potential from isolated to
scattered late afternoon shra are the main aviation focus for
this TAF period.

Secondary cold frontal boundary noted across eastern iowa, which
will move east across the mississippi this morning and result in a
wind shift from light southwest to west winds across the
terminals after sunrise. Other than some patchy sct-bkn mid level
vfr clouds, no sig weather expected. Diurnal deepening of the
boundary layer will increase winds behind the front during the
day, with gusts in the 25-30 kt range expected this afternoon.

Cooler air aloft, combined with afternoon heating and a series of
minor mid-level disturbances, will likely result in a sct-bkn
stratocu field developing by mid-late afternoon, with isolated to
scattered showers developing especially north and west of the
terminals. While a few of these showers could impact the taf
sites, the current expectation is that coverage will be low enough
to not include in point forecasts at this time. Gusty west winds
will diminish toward sunset.

Ratzer

Marine
213 pm cdt
winds become west overnight and increase to 15-25 kt Monday. Issued
a small craft advisory for gusty winds Monday for points north of
gary, indiana. Winds will be 15-25 kt east of gary, in, but do not
have enough confidence in persistent 20-25 kt winds.

West to southwest winds of 15-25 kt are expected through Wednesday
night as a low over ontario slowly drifts north to james bay. High
pressure builds over the plains Tuesday night and then shifts south
of the lake Wednesday night. Winds become north behind a cold front
Friday.

Jee

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743... 10 am
Monday to 7 pm Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 7 64°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi60 min WSW 5.1 G 7 64°F
45174 25 mi40 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 59°F 56°F51°F
FSTI2 35 mi100 min SW 6 67°F
OKSI2 40 mi100 min WSW 1.9 71°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi60 min WSW 6 G 8 65°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi50 min W 8 G 8 71°F 46°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi50 min W 9.7 G 9.7 53°F 47°F1006.8 hPa (+0.0)48°F
CNII2 44 mi40 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 62°F
45013 44 mi61 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 1006.8 hPa
JAKI2 49 mi100 min WSW 4.1 66°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi45 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F50°F83%1006.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi47 minSW 510.00 miFair55°F46°F74%1007 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi47 minSW 510.00 miFair59°F46°F64%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5NW8
G14
N7NE455SW65NW11
G17
63SW7W8
G14
3Calm3SW3
1 day agoN3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5E7E63E5SE7SE9E7SE8SE10SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7E6E7E9E8E5SE5E6NE3NE6NE7NE6NE5E8E5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.