Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:19 AM CDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of today..East wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the evening, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering south with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ646 Expires:201809192200;;887832 FZUS53 KMKX 191605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-192200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 191133
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
633 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term
358 am cdt
today through Friday...

timing of periodic shower and thunderstorm potential, and large
gradient changes in temperatures are main forecast concerns
through the near term, as frontal system across downstate il in
eventually lifts back north as a warm front tonight Thursday.

Early morning surface analysis places the cold front from roughly
kansas city to st louis and evansville indiana. Rap mesoanalysis
indicates the elevated (925-850 mb) frontal zone extends 100-150
miles north of the surface boundary. South-southwesterly low level
jet of 30-35 kts was oriented into eastern nebraska western iowa,
where convergence forced ascent was driving thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of sioux falls and sioux city, with a
few more isolated convective cells extending along the front into
far west central il. Activity back to the west appears to be in
association with a distinct mid-level short wave trough, which
will propagate eastward this morning, spreading elevated
convection across iowa. High-res cam guidance would indicate
showers thunderstorms spreading into northern il by early
afternoon, though with an overall weakening trend depicted.

Farther west, an upper trough over the west coast is progged to
consolidate and deepen surface low pressure over the high plains
later today, which will begin to lift the stalled downstate front
back northward as a warm front.

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening
along north of the northward moving warm front, primarily from
northern ia southern mn eastward into southern wi and the il wi
border region. Height falls ahead of the approaching western
trough, strengthening nocturnal low level jet and upper level
divergence beneath the right entrance region to a broad upper jet
lend higher confidence to MCS development across the
aforementioned area tonight. While much of the overnight
convection is depicted just north of the forecast area, cam
guidance does warrant higher pops across far northern il as well,
especially north of the i-88 corridor. Orientation of elevated
baroclinic zone and southwesterly low level jet component suggests
the potential for slow moving, training cells which may lead to
locally heavy rainfall amounts across far northern il overnight
into early Thursday. Wpc has southern edge of their day 1
excessive rainfall outlook across far northern il.

Warm front lifts north of the il wi line during the day Thursday,
though convective outflow may slow the process somewhat. Breezy,
very warm and humid conditions are expected through the day in the
warm sector, with temperatures expected to warm to near record
levels into the lower 90s in many locations. Heat index values of
95-100 are expected during the afternoon hours.

Thunderstorm chances will be fairly low within the warm sector
Thursday, but will ramp up again Thursday night as a cold front
approaches form the west. Strong wind fields and an unusually
warm moist boundary layer for late september will support the
potential for a few strong severe storms Thursday night, though
the severe weather potential will gradually diminish further east
where storms will arrive later in the night. The front will
complete its transit of the forecast area Friday, with storm
potential ending from the northwest during the morning and early
afternoon hours. Cooler temps will arrive with the front, making
for highs in the 70s across the northwest half of the CWA Friday,
and in the low-mid 80s south.

Ratzer

Long term
358 am cdt
Friday night through Tuesday...

surface cold front pushes southeast into the ohio valley Friday
evening, while high pressure builds from the upper mississippi
valley to the western great lakes region overnight in association
with strong height rises in the wake of the departing upper
trough. Breeze north-northeasterly flow pulls much cooler and
drier air into the region, characterized by surface dew point
temps in the 40s. Steep low level lapse rates over lake michigan
will likely support some lake-induced stratocu into northeast il
into Saturday morning, while portions of north central il clear
out and see diminishing winds closer to the surface ridge axis.

This should allow for a chilly night early morning as temps to
fall into the low-mid 40s from the fox valley into north
central northwest il by sunrise Saturday morning. Sunny skies
return Saturday (after some morning lake clouds across northeast
il northwest in), though gradually diminishing northeast surface
flow maintains relatively cool temps across the region. Low level
thermal fields from models support afternoon highs ranging only
from the mid-60s along the lake to the upper 60s generally north
of the i-80 corridor, and low 70s farther to the south.

Surface high pressure across the lakes slowly drifts east
Saturday night and Sunday. Clear skies and lighter winds Saturday
night will again combine to produce cool overnight temps in the
mid-upper 40s in many locations away from the city and immediate
lake michigan shore areas. Some moderation begins Sunday, with
low-mid 70s expected away from the lake shore, where upper 60s are
likely with weaker onshore surface winds.

Guidance is in good agreement in depicting an amplifying upper
pattern late in the weekend. Developing long-wave upper trough
over the western CONUS induces elongated surface low pressure from
the central plains northeast into ontario by Monday, resulting in
return southerly low level flow across the plains and mississippi
valley regions. This in turn, leads to a moderation in
temperatures and the return of shower and thunderstorm chances as
early as Monday. Greatest precip chance appears to be late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, as deepening surface low pressure
passes north of the great lakes and trails a cold front across the
forecast area.

Ratzer

Climate
Record high temps could be jeopardy Thursday, here
are the current records:
chicago 92 (2017)
rockford 92 (1920)

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

low MVFR to ifr CIGS have spawned across most of northern il
overnight. It appears that these CIGS will hang on for at least a
couple hours early this morning before dissipating. Thereafter, it
appearsVFR conditions will return. While the threat of showers
over the area this afternoon is not zero, it appears the threat
will remain rather low. For this reason I have removed the prob30
for showers from the taf. If there does end up being any showers
this afternoon, the best chances would be at krfd as the complex
of storms now over ia shifts eastward into the area. Currently
this activity is expected to weaken considerably into this
afternoon as it moves into northwestern il.

The next chance for some showers and thunderstorms looks to be
late tonight into early Thursday morning. At the present time it
appears the main focus for storms during this period will be north
of most of the terminals into wi. However, it still appears
possible that some scattered storms could develop over far
northern il late tonight as the surface warm front begins to shift
north. Confidence is not the highest on these storms at the
terminals, but I felt that the addition of a prob30 for tsra is
justified for late tonight.

Expect the winds to remain easterly today and then shift
south-southeasterly tonight as the surface warm front shifts over
the area. The only uncertainty with the winds during the period
revolves around the potential for any outflow from storms tonight
to slow the northward progression of the warm front. If this
occurs, winds could remain east-northeasterly longer then current
forecast.

Kjb

Marine
327 am cdt
active weather expected on the lake, especially Thursday and
Friday.

Northeasterly winds continue over the lake this morning, with the
strongest of 10-18 kt over the southern end of the lake. Expect
east-northeasterly winds to continue through the day, with waves
generally in the 2 to 4 foot range, especially over southern lake
michigan. The winds will veer southeasterly tonight in response
to an area of low pressure taking shape over the plains. The low
is expected to track northward over the upper great lakes by late
Thursday. As it does so, a warm frontal boundary will shift
northward over the lake on Thursday into Thursday evening.

Southeasterly winds will be on the increase through the day on
Thursday, though the stronger winds are not expected until the
warm front lifts north into Thursday evening. Following the
passage of this warm front expect southerly winds to increase
significantly. This is a rather dynamic storm system, and as
such, it is likely to produce a rather impressive wind field over
the great lakes Thursday night. Therefore, it appears that gales
to 40+ kt will be a good possibility, especially over the
northern half of the lake Thursday night. Over the south half of
the lake expect a solid 30 kt of southerly flow, with some low
end gales possible. The winds will then turn west and eventually
north-north west during the day on Friday following a cold frontal
passage. Wind speeds during this period could also reach gale
force. Because of this we have issued a gale watch for the north
half of the lake for Thursday evening through early Friday
afternoon.

Surface high pressure will set up over the lake this weekend, so
wind speeds are likely to ease significantly for the weekend.

Please note that beginning this afternoon the open lakes forecast
(portion of lake michigan beyond 5 nautical miles) will be issued
by NWS milwaukee. For this reason, please reference their marine
discussion in the future for forecast information regarding the
open waters of the lake. NWS chicago will continue to issue the
near shore forecast (area of the lake from the shore to 5 nautical
miles out) for the northeasterly il and portions of the
northwestern indiana waters. So future discussions here will focus
on this area of the lake when active weather occurs.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi19 min 67°F 70°F2 ft
45186 7 mi19 min NE 9.7 67°F 71°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi19 min NE 12 G 15 65°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi39 min ENE 9.9 G 13 66°F
45174 25 mi19 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 71°F3 ft65°F
FSTI2 35 mi79 min NE 7 69°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi29 min E 8.9 G 9.9 65°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi49 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 69°F 63°F
45013 44 mi72 min E 9.7 G 12 65°F 67°F2 ft1019 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi29 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 70°F2 ft1018.2 hPa (+1.0)60°F
CNII2 44 mi19 min NE 5.1 G 7 72°F 61°F
JAKI2 49 mi79 min NE 5.1 G 8 70°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi24 minENE 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F61°F78%1017.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi26 minENE 910.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1018.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi26 minNE 810.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1019 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N10
G21
NW7CalmS9CalmNE6NE8E7CalmCalmN3N4N3N5NE5NE6NE7E4E5NE6E9NE7NE10
G15
1 day agoN3CalmE6E6E6E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE6N8N6N5NE3N8Calm34N10
G17
2 days agoE7E8E6E8E9E7E7SE4CalmSE4SE4SE4SE4S5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.