Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:34PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:07 AM CDT (11:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 2:07AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing north early in the morning. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest late in the evening, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201806221600;;926488 FZUS53 KMKX 221006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-221600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 220844
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
344 am cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Short term
323 am cdt
through tonight...

the main forecast concerns is with the heavy rain potential into
today.

Water vapor imagery channels this morning show the center of the
upper-low now over stl. Several smaller scale perturbations are
also noted shifting northwest over northern il, along the
northeastern periphery of this upper-low. The latest VWP winds at
850 mb continue to indicate winds out of the southeast around 25
kt across the chicago metro area, with a more easterly component
noted just north of the area into the milwaukee area. Overall
this is resulting in a steady flow of moisture and isentropic
upglide into northern il from the southeast ahead of the
approaching upper low. Deformation and frontogenesis is also
helping to focus the main area of showers across far northern il.

It appears this process will continue through the morning, which
should tend to keep the better coverage of showers over far
northern il, mainly north of i-88. Overall, the threat of
thunderstorms with this activity should remain low, but some very
efficient rainfall will likely occur from this showers as
precipitable water values continue to be up around 1.6". This
could result in some localized flooding issues. For this reason we
plan to hold onto the flood watch for now.

While my southern areas may remain precipitation free for a few
hours this morning, it does appear that more showers and even
thunderstorms will develop by this afternoon over my southeastern
counties (southeast of the chicago metro) as the large upper low
shifts to near klaf. With cold mid-level temperatures associated
with this upper-low, expect the possibility for some near surface
based CAPE to develop in spite of mainly cloudy skies across the
region. The main threat with these storms will again be very heavy
rainfall as precipitable water values remain AOA 1.6". Also can't
rule out some funnel clouds or a brief weak touch down over my
southeastern CWA with the upper low nearby this afternoon.

Some rap around showers looks to continue this evening as the
upper low gradually shifts towards the ohio valley. Precipitation
chances will drop off significantly across the area Friday night.

Kjb

Long term
344 am cdt
Saturday through Thursday...

a return to some Sun is expected for the weekend, with overall
nice weather, albeit cool. Temperatures should be near 80 on
Saturday, and likely back into the lower 80s for Sunday. Cooler
conditions are likely along the shores of lake michgian due to an
onshore wind each day.

Active weather looks like it will make a return to the area for
Tuesday into Wednesday as our next more substantial mid-level
disturbance shifts across the upper midwest and into the western
great lakes. This feature looks to drive a surface warm front
over the area sometime on Tuesday, with warm and moist conditions
likely to make a comeback into the area in its wake. Overall, this
looks like a period when a couple of mcs's could impact the
region. Very heavy rainfall, and possibly some strong severe
storms will have to be watch for during this period.

Later in the period, there are some signs that the summer heat
dome (upper ridge) may begin to build again across the central
conus. This could result in much warmer conditions over the area
later next week. The magnitude of this warmth locally will
ultimately depend on how strong the upper ridge ends up and hence
where the main belt of active weather (mcs's) will set up.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

the upper level low will rotate overhead today and then slowly
drift east to the ohio valley by Saturday morning. Rounds of
showers are expected today. Rainfall has been very efficient;
therefore, visibilities will be low under the showers. 1 sm
visibility is expected under the heaviest showers early this
morning.

Ifr CIGS remain south of the terminals and are expected to rotate
north to the terminals this morning. I pushed back the timing of
ifr CIGS due their lack of progress. Model guidance also supports
a later time of arrival, but I have high confidence in ifr cigs
today.

Winds will be out of the northeast, and gusts to 20 kt are
possible with the showers early this morning. Gusts to 20 kt
continue today. Winds become north early Saturday morning.

Rain may come to an end before Saturday morning, but I decided to
keep ifr CIGS and vcsh going with the upper level low overhead. I
have low confidence in showers directly impacting the terminals
tonight into Saturday morning, but some should be around.

Jee

Marine
314 am cdt
i did not make any changes to the small craft advisory as
hazardous waves are still expected through tonight.

An upper-level low over illinois will drift to the eastern great
lakes Saturday. I expect a persistent period of 15-20 kt N to ne
winds through the weekend. High pressure will then build across
the great lakes region Sunday night moving over new england
Tuesday. N to NE winds early next week become southeast to south
Monday night-Tuesday. Southerly winds will increase to 15-25 kt
as the high pushes east and a low moves over the upper midwest.

Winds will become west behind the low's cold front Wednesday.

Jee

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 4 am Saturday.

Flash flood watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022
until 10 am Friday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001 until 4 am Saturday.

Flash flood watch... Inz001-inz002 until 10 am Friday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 4 am Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi88 min NNE 14 G 16 60°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi68 min NE 7 G 8 59°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.4)
FSTI2 35 mi128 min NNE 5.1 61°F
OKSI2 40 mi128 min N 5.1 G 8 62°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi48 min N 11 G 13 56°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi48 min NE 19 G 22 62°F 61°F
45177 41 mi128 min 64°F1 ft
CNII2 44 mi38 min NNE 11 G 13 60°F 58°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi78 min ENE 16 G 19 63°F 62°F3 ft1008.4 hPa (-0.8)54°F
45013 44 mi61 min N 14 G 16 58°F 57°F2 ft1010.1 hPa
JAKI2 49 mi128 min NE 8.9 G 15 63°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE8
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N2
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G10
N3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi13 minNE 63.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F54°F90%1008.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi15 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain58°F53°F84%1009.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi15 minNE 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast60°F50°F70%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10NE10E12
G17
----NE10NE10NE11NE4NE4NE5NE8NE6NE5NE8NE4N6N7NE10
G19
NE8NE11
G20
NE6NE7NE6
1 day agoN4NE5NE4N5NE8E6NE6NE7NE7NE5NE8E8NE7NE3N4NE4NE6NE6NE4CalmNE8E9E8E6
2 days agoNE5N4E6N6NE4N6NE7NE8NE8NE8NE6N7N6NE5NE9N11
G15
N8N6N4N5N5N7N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.