Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:20PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cst Thu Dec 13 2018
Through early evening..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of rain in the evening. Rain in the late evening and early morning, then chance of rain early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201812141000;;746776 FZUS53 KMKX 132105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-141000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 132034
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
234 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Short term
211 pm cst
through Friday night...

main concern for the short term forecast period remains the onset of
pcpn overspreading the area by early this evening.

For the remainder of the afternoon, conditions across the area
remain relatively quiet, though an area of low stratus and patchy
fog is slowly working it's way northward in advance to the rain
expected to begin to overspread the area, from south to north, early
this evening.

The main sfc low associated with the southern stream system is still
over the texarkana area, with an inverted trough axis extending
north along the mississippi river. Light southeast winds have
persisted through the day, with unseasonably warm moist air surging
northward in advance of the sfc low trough. By early this
afternoon, temperatures have risen into the upper 30s to lower 40s
and a couple more degrees of warming is possible. Latest guidance
and observed trends are generally on target to bring the rain into
the far southern portions of the CWA by arnd 21-22z and should
spread north, reaching the rockford and chicago metro areas by arnd
00z. In the unseasonably warm moist air mass, low clouds and patchy
for is likely, with rainfall likely persisting through much of the
night. Pcpn may be moderate at time, especially arnd 06z when the
guidance is indicating that an axis of pwat approaching 1 inch will
be in place across the region. The bulk of the rainfall should be
along east of the inverted trough axis, which is expected to
progress ewd across the region overnight tonight. By 12z tomorrow
morning, expect the trough axis to move into nern in and steadily
progress ewd through the morning hours. Expect pcpn to end from
west to east as the trough axis progresses ewd, ending in the
rockford area shortly before daybreak and ending over the far ern
portions of the CWA by late morning, though there is a chance for
some lingering light rain over the far ERN portions of the CWA into
the early afternoon. Given the pacific origin of the system and the
warm moist nature of the air mass, expect that temperatures will
remain above freezing through the duration of the pcpn event and
that the pcpn should be all liquid.

For the remainder of Friday and Friday night, the models are
converging on a solution which takes the main sfc low on a track
along or just south of the ohio river. Even the nam, which had been
a more northerly track outlier, is in agreement on the more
southerly solutions advertised by the global models. So, have
backed off on pops for Friday night, with just some slight chance to
low chance pops for the far sern portions of the CWA and even then,
the chances are increasing that the entire CWA will be dry Friday
night. As the sfc trough axis moves to the east, winds will shift
to more northerly and then northeasterly as high pressure spreads
across the middle mississippi valley on Friday. This will usher in
some slightly cooler air, but since this system is continental polar
and not of arctic origin, to not expect that temperatures will be
significantly lower on Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday should
still be in the middle 40s over the sern portions of the CWA to the
upper 30s over the ncntrl il with lows Friday night ranging from the
upper 20s over the rockford area to the upper 30s over the far sern
portions of the forecast area.

Long term
234 pm cst
Saturday through Thursday...

at 12z Saturday morning, there is a low pressure system centered
over the southern portion of the midwest. There is no precipitation
expected for the majority of the cwa. However, there may be a
brief chance for some precipitation in trace amounts southeast of
pontiac and south of kankakee during the morning. Otherwise,
expect temperatures Saturday to be fairly mild, into the 40s, as
the low pressure system heads northeast into the mid-atlantic by
Sunday morning.

During the day on Sunday, a high pressure center begins to build
over the great plains region. Temperatures could get into the upper
40s and possibly reach 50. The NAM is running a bit colder than
other models, but it has a significant temperature inversion near
the surface that could potentially mix out and raise temperatures to
values near other models.

The high pressure center over the great plains becomes less
pronounced and merges with an elongated region of high pressure
coming out of saskatchewan, so that by 12z Monday, the region of
high pressure is just west of illinois. The high pressure continues
to build into the area throughout the day on Monday, allowing for
clear skies. The high pressure should stick around until Tuesday
evening when it moves to the ese. As the high pressure moves out of
the area, cloudy skies are expected to fill in from the west.

It should be cloudy throughout the day Wednesday, with temperatures
likely to be in the low-to-mid 40s. There is a chance for
precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. A low
pressure system begins to move into the great lakes region Wednesday
overnight into Thursday. The GFS has the track of the low staying
well to our north, while the ECMWF has the low deepening slightly
with more of a pronounced trough. With the CWA ahead of that trough,
the ECMWF shows that precipitation is possible during at least the
early afternoon on Thursday, although there is still uncertainty
since the agreement between models is low.

Swaney kb
kjb

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

primary forecast concern remains light rain arriving by early
this evening along with timing ifr and eventually lifr CIGS vis
and how long they will last.

Under light sely winds, conditions across NRN il nwrn in have been
quiet with the exception of some periods of MVFR vis in haze. An
area of fog and low stratus is gradually spreading north, with the
low CIGS vis as far north as a line from ksqi-kjot-kvpz at 18z.

The latest high res guidance, or any model guidance for that
matter, is not handling this very well. Had initially anticipated
that any cig vis restrictions at the terminals would be associated
with the rain overspreading the terminals by early this evening,
but will need to monitor these trends closely to see if the ifr
conditions may reach the terminals in advance of the rain.

Otherwise, the rain is expected to spread north across the
terminals early this evening. Lower end MVFR CIGS are expected to
arrive at or shortly before the onset of pcpn as top down
saturation occurs. Latest guidance continues to suggest a period
of lifr CIGS vis as unseasonably warm, moist air is associated
with this system. The main question remain as to the exact onset
time and duration of the lifr conditions. Have tried to target
the most likely timing with the 07-11z tempo group, but there is a
chance that the lower CIGS may linger longer into the early
morning hours, or even develop a little earlier than the period
defined in the tempo. Given the uncertainty in timing at this
point, did not want to go with an excessively long period of lifr
conditions in the current TAF update, but there is a chance that
later updates may require a longer duration of lifr conditions. At
this point, it appears that low CIGS may be the greatest concern,
but some of the more pessimistic guidance has been suggesting a
period of vis down to 1 2sm, but confidence is too low to drop vis
that low at this time. Ifr conditions are likely to persist into
tomorrow morning with somewhat slow improvement through the day.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi60 min SSE 5.1 G 6 39°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi80 min ESE 6 G 7 40°F
FSTI2 35 mi120 min SE 16 37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi30 min E 7 G 8 39°F 37°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi20 min SE 8 G 8.9 37°F
CNII2 44 mi15 min N 1.9 G 6 37°F 33°F
JAKI2 49 mi120 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi65 minVar 35.00 miFair with Haze38°F30°F73%1019.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi67 minE 46.00 miFair with Haze41°F30°F67%1018.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi67 minSSE 67.00 miFair39°F30°F73%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
G18
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54W5W64W3CalmSW5SW3SW3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmSW3SE7SE7SE9SE11SE73
1 day agoNE6E6E4E4E6SE6SE6SE8SE10SE9SE10SE9S9
G17
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SE9S9S8S9S12SW18SW15
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2 days agoSW10
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SW7SW10SW11
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W6SW9W7SW6SW7W4W45NW46SW5W3CalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.