Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 3:38 PM   Moonset 4:31 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KALY 191031 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 631 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Although a few breaks are possible, skies will continue to remain mostly cloudy again today. An approaching frontal boundary will return some more rain showers to the region for this afternoon into this evening. Behind the front, breezy conditions are expected for Saturday, with a partly sunny afternoon and temperatures running a little below normal. It will remain dry for Sunday into Monday with a mostly clear sky, but temperatures will continue to be a little below average for late April.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 631 AM EDT...The combination of surface high pressure over Atlantic Canada and a weak storm system located off the mid- Atlantic coast continues to allow for the low level flow out of the east to southeast. This onshore flow is keeping plenty of low level moisture in place, where is trapped beneath an inversion around 900 hpa. IR satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show fairly widespread stratus clouds over the region. While there had been some light showers and drizzle earlier in the overnight, this has ended, as forcing is fairly weak over the area, thanks to the weak coastal system continuing to move further away.

Through the morning hours, will expect skies to remain cloudy with the flow becoming southerly across the area. There could be an opportunity for a few breaks of sun by the late morning or early afternoon hours, mainly for far southern areas or parts of western New England, although most areas will continue to remain fairly overcast. Temps will be a little warmer than yesterday thanks to the southerly flow and slightly milder temps aloft, so highs should reach the mid to upper 50s in most areas.

Another frontal boundary will be approaching from the west for late in the day. CAMs suggest that a broken line of light rain showers will be moving across the area from west to east for the late afternoon or early evening hours, with the highest coverage of showers probably for western and northern areas. Any precip looks fairly light and brief.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As the surface cold front slowly moves across the area, some additional showers are expected for this evening into tonight.
There are some differences in the models regarding just steady any precip will be, so will generally have POPs in the chance range through the overnight hours, with POPs starting to wind down west to east by the late night hours. Overnight temps will be falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas (some mid 30s in the highest terrain). Some clearing may finally occur by the late night hours for far northwestern areas.

On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the morning hours, as the frontal boundary continues to push away.
However, skies won't be clearing out completely, as the upper level trough overhead will still be allowing for some clouds, especially by afternoon hours, as the cooling temps aloft and cyclonic flow promote the development of cu/stratocu. While most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few pop-up showers or sprinkles can't be ruled out by Saturday afternoon, mainly northern and high terrain areas, although the best chance will likely be west of the forecast area. Any precip on Saturday looks very brief. Temps will be a little below normal thanks to the upper level cold pool in place, with temps only in the 50s for most areas. With the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and breezy by Saturday afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. It will remain a little breezy into Saturday night with some lingering clouds. Temps will fall into the 30s, although it should be dry with no precip across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air, but this moisture-starved front won't be producing any precip for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. Temps on Sunday will be in the 50s (40s for the high terrain) with upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night. It will be breezy once again on Sunday, especially during the time of peak heating, with some gusts in the afternoon and early evening up to about 30 mph or so.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak, dry cold front will exit early on Monday as high pressure builds in for the rest of the day. This will lead to a mostly sunny and breezy start to the week with highs in the 40s and 50s, slightly below normal. A mostly clear and cool night is expected Monday night with lows in the 20s and 30s.

The high will push off to the east on Tuesday as southerly return flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on Tuesday will rebound into the 50s and 60s. Clouds will increase and thicken later in the day as an upper-level trough and low pressure system approach from the west. There is some timing and track differences with our next system but shower chances look to increase spanning Tuesday night and Wednesday and we maintained likely pops for those time periods. If the cold front crosses during the time of peak heating on Wednesday, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Enough cold air may advance behind the cold front that some snowflakes could mix in across higher elevations before precipitation tapers off later Wednesday or Wednesday night. An upper-level disturbance may linger over the region into Thursday; otherwise, drier weather would return with high pressure building back in from the west.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12z/Sat...High pressure will be located off the New England coast through the afternoon hours. Thereafter, a cold front will cross the region from west to east tonight.

Dry weather is expected through much of the day Friday. Generally low end VFR cigs are expected with some periods of high end MVFR cigs possible. Ceilings will lower to the MVFR range at all sites tonight along with some scattered rain showers, which could bring mixed MVFR/VFR vsbys. Cigs may lower to IFR at some sites, especially KGFL/KPSF, but kept MVFR cigs at this time. After the passage of the cold front, cigs may quickly lift back to VFR.

Wind will become south to southeasterly at 10-15 kt today with some gusts over 20 kt. Wind will remain south to southeasterly at 5 to 10 kt this evening, gradually shifting to the west toward the end of the TAF period behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

New Baltimore
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:03 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:15 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,