Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:02 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Tonight - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers likely through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight.Saturday - South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then veering southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing south late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight backing south 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight. Sunday - Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then veering south with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 262056 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected later today through the weekend, with storms possibly lingering into early Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially south and west of Madison.

- A few thunderstorms may be severe during this active pattern, particularly later Saturday through Sunday.

- Additional chances for showers and storms mid to late week next week.

SHORT TERM
Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tonight and Saturday:

Rain showers continue to push in from the south, with some rumbles of thunder embedded throughout the system. Current low level profiles remain drier while the upper levels moisten with the oncoming rain, helping to keep rainfall values around light to moderate across the area. This rain will continue to push in throughout the afternoon and evening, before a brief reprieve as it traverses towards the northeast.

Behind this initial band of rain, more rain follows the warm frontal boundary with an associated low pressure currently over Nebraska. With this line of rain, some embedded thunderstorms are anticipated, with greater lift along the boundary and more energy following warm air advection into the region. As the low pressure exits towards the northern Great Lakes region by Saturday morning, temperatures will climb with stronger southwesterly winds prevailing. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon hours, although most regions are expected to stay dry. Going into the evening on Saturday, a greater severe threat begins to take shape.

Gertonson

LONG TERM
Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday night through Friday:

Frontal feature hanging over central Wisconsin will slowly sink southward as low pressure approaches from the central Great Plains once again Saturday night. With surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and temperatures in the lower 70s, surface based CAPE values close to 2000 J/kg in the evening hours are possible, with CAPE above 1500 J/kg likely. Mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 degrees C/km lends credence to continued concern for 1 inch or larger hail with the initial convection within the unstable layer. Gusty winds are also possible with this activity as dry air intrudes in the 700 to 500 mb layer and PGF increases ahead of the next low pressure pushing eastward. Increasing helicity ahead of the front (200 to 300 m2/s2) may result in an isolated tornado, although confidence in this hazard remains low.

Frontal convection continues through Saturday night into Sunday, with any individual cells continuing to be capable of producing hail. However, increasing stability in the boundary layer will keep storms elevated and reduce any severe winds or lingering tornado potential. Sunday morning, low pressure begins to sweep northeastward toward Minnesota, bringing better bulk shear (40 to 50 kt) to the area as southerly winds continue to increase.
Cloud cover through the morning may prevent warming, and location of the frontal feature may produce a 10 or more degree F difference in temperature from central Wisconsin to southern Wisconsin. Still, temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s lend credence to another round of thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening as WAA and an 850 mb jet act as the main trigger and MUCAPE producers.
Potential for hail and gusty winds are once again in play.

Trends have been slower with the progression of the main cold frontal feature, leading to continued concerns for thunderstorms into Monday. Southerly to southwesterly flow continues throughout Monday morning, with frontal passage currently forecast early Monday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rise to near 70 degrees across all of southern Wisconsin, with westerly component allowing for warming all the way to Lake Michigan. Uncertainty remains in intensity of convection on Monday due to uncertainty in precursory convection and impact of previous days convection on the propagation of the low.

A brief period of quiet, dry weather on Tuesday, then an additional shortwave comes through the region Tuesday night, with additional shortwaves and perhaps a stronger low pressure system developing and impacting southern Wisconsin through the end of the week.

MH

AVIATION
Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Some pockets of moderate rain exist alongside the overall rain shield moving through southeastern Wisconsin, with ceilings continuing to fall as the initial band moves through. Overall thunder appears to have diminished with the rain band, but still keeping a close eye on conditions for thunder to return. A wind shift towards the southwest by tomorrow will foster notable LLWS conditions overnight, coupled with continued rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms.

Gertonson

MARINE
Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Low pressure over the central Great Plains will lift into Minnesota tonight, with gusty southeasterly winds expected. A few gusts late tonight into Saturday morning may approach gale force, especially in the northern half of the Lake, as the low continues to lift into Lake Superior. Winds will then become light and northeasterly Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low exits and a weak cold front drapes across central portions of the lake. Sunday into Sunday night, winds will become breezy and southerly south of the front and will become breezy and easterly to northeasterly north of the front. A Small Craft Advisory is in place through Monday for gusty winds and elevated wave conditions. A lull may occur late Saturday night into Sunday, with increased gustiness once again Monday.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight across the southern half of the lake, lifting into the northern half Saturday morning. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few storms in the afternoon hours could produce locally gusty winds.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

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