Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williams Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:14 AM CDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2019
Rest of tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..East wind 15 to 20 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers through around midnight, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201905210900;;205827 FZUS53 KMKX 210606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-210900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams Bay, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 210609
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
109 am cdt Tue may 21 2019

Update
Forecast remains on track through the morning with chances for
showers this morning and throughout much of the day, especially
further to the west.

Aviation(06z tafs)
A low pressure system will begin to make its way into the region
today with rain showers possible this morning and more likely into
the early afternoon. Rain chances will continue through the taf
period primarily in the western half of the state with lesser
chances into the evening closer to the shoreline. There will be a
brief period in the early evening where areas from madison and
west could see a few hours of MVFR cigs.

By around 00z, low level wind shear at 2 kft will be around 45-50
kts from the east southeast and will continue through most of the
overnight period. Lastly, showers will become likely into the
late evening and continue through much of the overnight period
with MVFR ifr CIGS expected to push into the region during this
time as well.

Prev discussion (issued 912 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
update...

the forecast remains on track for tonight.

Marine...

high pressure will move overhead tonight. Light winds are
expected into Tuesday morning, but will pick up out of the east to
northeast in the afternoon and evening as the high departs ahead
of an approaching low. Winds will be gusty out of east to
southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure lifts
through the northern plains into western minnesota. A small craft
advisory may be needed for Tue night and wed.

Winds will weaken a little and veer to the southwest Wednesday
night as the low departs and high pressure approaches.

Prev discussion... (issued 651 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
update...

cumulus clouds continue to decrease this evening as daytime
heating winds down. Mid and high level clouds are moving in from
the southwest though, so skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight.

Looks dry for most of the night, with a few showers possible
southwest of madison by daybreak Tuesday.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Lower
clouds are likely to move in from the southwest by the afternoon
hours. The MVFR ceilings may be confined to mainly southwest of
madison though, as drier easterly flow will keep bases higher
farther to the east.

There will be a chance for showers tomorrow, mainly from madison
westward, though a few showers will be possible east as well.

Widespread showers and a few storms are then likely Tuesday
evening and overnight. Looks like a good chance for low level
wind shear Tuesday evening and overnight as well.

Prev discussion... (issued 238 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
discussion...

tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

Any clearing of the lower CU stratus will be short lived as high
clouds will be spreading in quickly from the southwest. Expect dry
conditions through the night with another chilly night in the
lower to mid 40s.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The suite of model guidance is quite varied in handling the
convection lifting northeast out of kansas missouri and into the
western great lakes. The convection to the south will weaken, but
it will be supported by a decent area of warm air advection and
mid level energy. However, it will be swinging well away from the
parent low and there will be an increasing dry easterly low level
flow that will work to erode the rain is it lifts into wisconsin.

Some of the model guidance keeps southern wisconsin dry as it
wipes this rain out over northern illinois. Models, like the nam,
are more bullish and bring a decent amount of rain up into the
area. The NAM looks way overdone. Something along the lines of the
gfs and ECMWF look far more reasonable. Will carry a chance for
rain, but no thunder. The west has a better chance for seeing rain
vs the southeast.

Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
the low level ese dry feed turns decidedly south in the evening
which results in appreciable thermal moisture advection. This
evolves ahead of the low that is proggd to be lifting north
through the plains. Several hundred j kg of elevated CAPE in place
so the thunder mention looks good. There will be a 500 millibar
vort MAX that pivots northeast on the eastern periphery of the
main 500 energy well off to our west. Will have definite pops as
confidence high that rain will be pretty widespread.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
thermal ridging builds in briefly with the main advective forcing
on the wane. Influence of the plains 500 millibar low lifts to our
north bringing a more broad southwest anticyclonic flow for us here.

Winds may gust up there pretty good within the windy, warm dry slot
portion of the system. Models are showing an 850 wind MAX anywhere
from 30-45 knots during the afternoon evening. However some
disagreement on the pressure pattern and degree of mixing. Should
warm nicely with clearing and any mixing with lingering influence
of thermal ridge axis. Should see temps warm well into the 70s.

Wednesday night and Thursday - confidence... Medium
models in some disagreement whether showers clip our area along
ne-sw oriented frontal boundary. The GFS is a compromise between
the more robust ECMWF and benign gem. So will carry the blended
pops for Wednesday night.

Thursday night through Friday night - confidence... Medium
things turn unsettled again as the ridge axis shifts east and a
return flow sets up. For Thursday night the main forcing will be
driven by thermal moist advection with a hint of a wave trying to
move through the mid level ridge axis. Better dynamics and lower
level forcing with frontal interactions arriving for Friday into
Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium
the overall model consensus is to send this boundary south of wi
with the focus shifting to our south as well. The gem is an
outlier on keeping things unsettled. But for now some suggestion
of a surface high working in that would suppress this front to the
south. For now will need to at least keep some small pops in the
far south due to anticipated frontal proximity and slightly
quicker return flow from GFS which brings precip back for Sunday,
esp into southwest cwa.

Sunday night and Monday - confidence... Low to medium
the unsettled pattern looks like it will return as yet another
system approaches. A frontal boundary to our south will focus
activity that could lift up into SRN wi.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Look forVFR conditions through the TAF period.

We should see some clearing of the 4-6kft cloud deck this evening,
but more mid and high level clouds will be spreading in from the
south through the night. Look for light winds to turn northeast to
east on Tuesday and become rather strong and gusty, especially
over south central wisconsin... Including kmsn. We could see some
light rain spread across southern wisconsin during the morning and
early afternoon. No thunder is expected.

Marine... High pressure will push across the region tonight and Tuesday,
slipping east by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, strong low pressure will
be lifting north through the central plains. Expect light winds tonight.

Winds will be northeast to east on Tuesday, becoming more easterly
Tuesday night into Wednesday and turning rather strong and gusty. Winds
will become southwest by Wednesday night and diminish as high pressure
builds back across the area. Winds and waves will likely result in
a small craft advisory for the nearshore waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ark
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Ddv
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 37 mi74 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 47°F 1021.3 hPa (-0.4)
45187 38 mi54 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 47°F1 ft
45186 39 mi54 min W 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 48°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 39 mi94 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI14 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair39°F38°F99%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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N7N7N9N10E9NE5NE3CalmE4E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4NE5E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmS7
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2 days agoE4NE6E5NE3E4E5E5E6CalmCalmCalmSE7CalmS5SW6SW11
G20
S8CalmE3NE8NE8E8E11NE10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.