Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Kingsville, OH
March 19, 2024 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:26 AM Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 1:01 PM Moonset 4:12 AM |
LEZ168 Expires:202403190815;;980264 Fzus61 Kcle 190118 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 918 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - Low pressure 29.50 inches will enter the northern great lakes on Tuesday and move southeast through the region on Wednesday, forcing a cold front southeast across the lake Wednesday night. High pressure 30.40 inches will enter from the northwest on Thursday. Low pressure 29.90 inches will move through the region on Friday with a cold front across the lake early Saturday morning.
lez061-168-169-190815- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 918 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Scattered snow showers late this evening, then isolated snow showers after midnight. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday - West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely through early afternoon, then a chance of snow showers late. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 918 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez061-168-169-190815- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 918 pm edt Mon mar 18 2024
LEZ100
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 190604 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The next system will approach the area Thursday night through Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
2:03 AM EDT Update...
The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion from 3:59 PM EDT March 18th...
Light snow showers will continue across most of the area through this evening and another push of moderate snow showers currently moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move into southwestern zones by early this evening. Can't rule out some quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts of snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind guidance in the upcoming updates.
The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs don't ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term period.
Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the I-75 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the lower 30s Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined upper-level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night.
Temperatures aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the passage of this upper-level trough, dipping down to -12C at 850mb by 00Z/Thu and -15C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than enough to produce moderate lake-induced instability for lake effect precipitation. However, most model guidance has the best forcing and moisture content during the day Wednesday, with moisture content diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Surface temperatures during the day Wednesday are fairly marginal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any minor snow accumulations will probably be limited to mainly inland Northwest Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun angle should limit snow accumulations until the evening time. Through Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in eastern Erie County.
High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper- level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid- Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided by both of these features will likely result in periods of precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it's likely to be different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.
Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual, marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.
AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
At the surface, a weak ridge exits E'ward through ~12Z/Tues and is followed by a trough overspreading northern OH and NW PA from the western Great Lakes and vicinity through 06Z/Wed. In addition, a cold front is expected to sweep E'ward through northern OH and NW PA between ~22Z/Tues and ~05Z/Wed.
W'erly to WNW'erly regional surface winds back to SW'erly behind the surface ridge axis and remain around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots at times. After 14Z/Tues, SW'erly surface winds are expected to increase to 15-25 knots and gust up to 25-35 knots through ~22Z/Tues. Once the cold front passes, regional surface winds veer to W'erly and ease to around 10-15 knots. These post-front winds should gust up to 20-25 knots in the immediate lee of Lake Erie, including at KERI.
Widespread low clouds with ceilings near 3kft to 5kft AGL exit E'ward with the passage of the aforementioned surface ridge axis. Lingering lake-effect snow showers and associated VFR/MVFR low-level ceilings streaming ESE'ward from Lake Erie at 06Z/Tues will shift gradually N'ward this morning and should be offshore northern OH and NW PA by ~13Z/Tues as mean low-level flow backs from WNW'erly to SW'erly. However, behind the cold front, lake-effect snow showers and associated VFR/MVFR low- level ceilings should redevelop and stream generally E'ward across far-NE OH and NW PA toward 06Z/Wed.
As for the cold front, limited low-level moisture should permit a dry front passage, especially in northern OH. However, isolated snow showers, perhaps mixed with rain, may accompany the front in NW PA. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and IFR in precip, especially lake-effect precip.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain on Wednesday through Saturday.
MARINE
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There's a bit of a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it's very likely an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ010-011-020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013- 014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002- 003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The next system will approach the area Thursday night through Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
2:03 AM EDT Update...
The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion from 3:59 PM EDT March 18th...
Light snow showers will continue across most of the area through this evening and another push of moderate snow showers currently moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move into southwestern zones by early this evening. Can't rule out some quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts of snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind guidance in the upcoming updates.
The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs don't ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term period.
Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the I-75 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the lower 30s Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined upper-level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night.
Temperatures aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the passage of this upper-level trough, dipping down to -12C at 850mb by 00Z/Thu and -15C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than enough to produce moderate lake-induced instability for lake effect precipitation. However, most model guidance has the best forcing and moisture content during the day Wednesday, with moisture content diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Surface temperatures during the day Wednesday are fairly marginal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any minor snow accumulations will probably be limited to mainly inland Northwest Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun angle should limit snow accumulations until the evening time. Through Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in eastern Erie County.
High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper- level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid- Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided by both of these features will likely result in periods of precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it's likely to be different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.
Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual, marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.
AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
At the surface, a weak ridge exits E'ward through ~12Z/Tues and is followed by a trough overspreading northern OH and NW PA from the western Great Lakes and vicinity through 06Z/Wed. In addition, a cold front is expected to sweep E'ward through northern OH and NW PA between ~22Z/Tues and ~05Z/Wed.
W'erly to WNW'erly regional surface winds back to SW'erly behind the surface ridge axis and remain around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots at times. After 14Z/Tues, SW'erly surface winds are expected to increase to 15-25 knots and gust up to 25-35 knots through ~22Z/Tues. Once the cold front passes, regional surface winds veer to W'erly and ease to around 10-15 knots. These post-front winds should gust up to 20-25 knots in the immediate lee of Lake Erie, including at KERI.
Widespread low clouds with ceilings near 3kft to 5kft AGL exit E'ward with the passage of the aforementioned surface ridge axis. Lingering lake-effect snow showers and associated VFR/MVFR low-level ceilings streaming ESE'ward from Lake Erie at 06Z/Tues will shift gradually N'ward this morning and should be offshore northern OH and NW PA by ~13Z/Tues as mean low-level flow backs from WNW'erly to SW'erly. However, behind the cold front, lake-effect snow showers and associated VFR/MVFR low- level ceilings should redevelop and stream generally E'ward across far-NE OH and NW PA toward 06Z/Wed.
As for the cold front, limited low-level moisture should permit a dry front passage, especially in northern OH. However, isolated snow showers, perhaps mixed with rain, may accompany the front in NW PA. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and IFR in precip, especially lake-effect precip.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain on Wednesday through Saturday.
MARINE
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There's a bit of a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it's very likely an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ010-011-020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013- 014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002- 003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
ASBO1 | 47 mi | 68 min | WNW 12G | |||||
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 48 mi | 68 min | W 13G |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Cleveland, OH,
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