Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Kingsville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:47PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 10:50 PM EDT (02:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:201905220830;;251276 Fzus61 Kcle 220140 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 940 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will move east of the lake by Sunrise allowing a warm front to lift northward across the lake by Wednesday evening. Low pressure 29.70 inches will move across ontario into quebec on Thursday with a cold front crossing the lake during the afternoon. A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will move east across the lake Friday followed by a warm front Friday night. A southeast moving cold front will cross the lake Saturday night. High pressure 30.10 inches will move east across the central great lakes Sunday. Lez061-168-169-220830- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 940 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Kingsville, OH
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location: 42.59, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 212316
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift east tonight and a warm front will
lift north across the area Wednesday afternoon. The cold front
with this system will cross the area Thursday. Friday night,
and through the holiday weekend, the position of a front will
waver across the region and be the focus for convection.

Near term through Wednesday night
Weak warm advection at 850 700 mb will continue produce lift
over the region. The lower levels of the atmosphere are fairly
dry so anything reaching the ground will be a brief period of
very light rain or sprinkles. The area of strongest warm
advection is across indiana into SW oh. Current thinking is that
this does not reach the southwestern CWA through the evening.

Previous discussion...

a few sprinkles remain across the western counties east to
akron this afternoon and will continue to be the case through
approx dark. Precip will continue to struggle as the ridge
builds overhead tonight. The thick cloud cover is expected for
the night with only NW pa getting some thinning at times. Lows
will again be in the 40s, but will likely not see any upper 30s
with the expected cloud cover and the flow beginning to veer.

The warm front lifts across the area Wednesday. Lingering
convection from the west will be reaching northwest oh in the
morning. Expecting coverage to be limited as this area gets into
our western counties with an uptick in coverage and development
going into the afternoon and early evening east of i-71. Area
will be on the western periphery of the ridge. Enough low and
mid level flow and diurnal instability will aid in the storm
development. Have chosen scattered and likely wording. Agree
with the marginal severe risk identified by spc. Temperatures
will warm well into the 70s (especially west and south). The
gradient flow is strong enough to inhibit a lake breeze.

Convection should be confined to the evening hours across the
east southeast counties with the remainder of the night fair and
mild in the warm sector. Lows will be in the upper 50s low 60s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Active upper level pattern in place across the united states.

Upper level trough will dive into the western united states
Thursday into Friday forcing amplification of an upper level
ridge over the eastern half of the country. The ridge will
extend north from upper level high pressure over southern
georgia by Friday. Low pressure will move east across the
northern great lakes in response to upper level shortwave trough
moving quickly east across the area. This low will force a cold
front east across the area Thursday. Limited moisture with the
front is expected but the threat for showers and thunderstorms
is also possible. There is the threat for some of the
thunderstorms to become severe Thursday ahead of the cold front
as destabilization takes place. Dewpoint temperatures will climb
up into the middle to upper 60s Thursday and in warm air
advection highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s. Cold
front will be east of the area Thursday night with relatively
weak cold air advection. Front should knock temperatures down
into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area.

Northeast portions should be in the lower to middle 50s. High
pressure will scoot by across the area Friday and another warm
front will begin to approach from the southwest. This will bring
a surge of warm air back to the region along with increasing
dewpoint temperatures back into the middle 50s northeast to the
lower to middle 60s southwest.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Upper level ridge is expected to shift east and flatten across
the great lakes Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper level
low pressure system will dive into the west coast and cause the
upper level ridge to amplify over the eastern two thirds of the
united states by Tuesday. Yet another low pressure and
associated shortwave will move east across central ontario,
canada Saturday. This will force a cold front east across the
area Saturday night. Limited mean relative humidity will be
associated with the boundary but threat for showers and
thunderstorms are expected as destabilization takes place once
again. Dewpoints on Saturday could surge well into the upper 60s
again. High pressure will move into the great lakes Sunday but
the feature washes out and little in the way of change of air
mass will take place. A fast moving upper level shortwave trough
will move east into the northern great lakes Monday forcing
surface low pressure to develop in the northern lakes. This low
will then force a cold front southeast across the area Monday
followed by high pressure into the early part of the week.

Temperatures will be well into the 80s for highs Saturday and
gradually cool to the middle and upper 70s Monday and Tuesday.

Lows in the upper 50s to around 60.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Weak warm advection at 850 700 mb will continue produce lift
over the region. The lower levels of the atmosphere are fairly
dry so anything reaching the ground will be a brief period of
very light rain or sprinkles. The area of strongest warm
advection is across indiana into SW oh. Current thinking is that
this does not reach the southwestern CWA through the evening.

So expect to see ceilings gradually spread over all the area
overnight and slowly lower as a warm front approaches. A few
showers may reach NW ohio in the stronger warm advection in the
morning. As the warm front moves across the area Wednesday
afternoon expect to see showers and thunderstorms redevelop.

MVFR ifr conditions and a few stronger wind gusts to 40 knots
may accompany the strongest thunderstorms.

Winds will be mostly from the east overnight at 5 to 12 knots.

As the warm front lifts across the area winds will shift to the
south and southwest. Speeds will generally be 10 to 15 knots
with a few gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Wednesday evening, Thursday Thursday
night, Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
East to southeast winds will develop overnight causing water
levels to rise once again on the western basin of the lake.

Possible shore line flooding could occur late tonight into
tomorrow morning. A lakeshore flood watch has been issued for 2
am through about 10 am tomorrow. Event should be short lived as
flow shifts to more southeasterly cutting down on the fetch.

Otherwise, winds will gradually shift to westerly Thursday and
increase in speed to about 15 to 25 knots and then diminish to
light and variable by Thursday night and Friday. Return
southerly flow develops Friday night but light and then
increases to 15 to 25 knots again Saturday from the southwest.

Flow will gradually become light and variable by Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Lakeshore flood watch from 2 am edt Wednesday through
Wednesday morning for ohz003-007>009.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mm oudeman
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Mm
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 16 mi50 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 48°F1 ft1021.8 hPa (+1.0)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 59 mi32 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 58°F1021.1 hPa50°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA55 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair54°F42°F64%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW9NW6NW8NW6NW5CalmS3S3S34NW5W6NW6W7W8W8NW7W7NW7W5NW6W3Calm
1 day agoS8S10S15
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2 days ago--S10S12S12S12S13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.