Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Douglas, MI
April 27, 2024 8:36 AM EDT (12:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:33 AM |
LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 805 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Today - South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots backing south late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 271154 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 754 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight
- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening
- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri
- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight
Michigan sits in the warm sector of a surface low currently centered over northwest Iowa / southeast Minnesota. As that low traverses northeast into Lake Superior today, scattered showers and storms will move through the area. A patch of these warm sector showers is currently traveling northeast from IL/IN into southern MI this morning. Elevated instability will increase through the morning, so some rumbles of thunder are possible.
Better chances for strong to severe storms exist later this evening and overnight as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
Surface heating builds instability throughout the day with HRRR MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and bulk shear near 35 to 40 knots. Low- level convergence will focus storm initiation near the surface boundary near and north of a line from Muskegon to Clare. SPC maintains a Slight Risk for that area today, with Marginal to the southeast. Main timing for the strong to severe storms will be from 8pm to about 2am with wind and hail as the primary storm threats.
- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening
Active weather will continue into Sunday, though the risk for severe weather is low. Another upper low will eject out of the Southern Plains with its associated surface low moving into the region Sunday. We remain in the warm sector of this surface low with HRRR MUCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. So expect continued showery conditions with some weak storms. HRRR probability-matched mean total QPF by Sunday evening pushes 1 to 1.75 inches for areas north of a line from Muskegon to Saginaw.
- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri
The saying about "April Showers" will be very applicable to our forecast over the next 7 days despite crossing into the month of May. Chances for precipitation will be in the forecast each 12 hour forecast period through Friday with the exception of Tuesday.
The system affecting our weather this weekend will exit the area to the east on Monday into Monday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Sunday night through Monday night. Sunday night a warm front will be slowly lifting northward. Monday we will be positioned in the warm sector of the weakening system and Monday night the cold front goes east. Looking at ECMWF and GFS ensemble member plots of CAPE it is clear to see that deep moisture remains resulting in CAPE in every ensemble member. Showers and storms are in the forecast each of these 3 forecast periods. Lack of upper support in terms of a significant shortwave will likely limit and severe potential, but strength of the low level jet (30-45 knots)
suggest we will need to monitor. As of now, the SPC has us in general thunder for Sunday night through Monday night.
One dry forecast period on Tuesday with ridging moving through the Great Lakes will be short lived as rain chances reappear Tuesday night. Tuesday night a cold front moves in associated with a shortwave aloft off to our northwest. Thursday a warm front will try to push in from the south with a low remaining in the area then towards Friday.
- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week
GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance shows highs in Grand Rapids in the 70s Monday through Friday. 850mb temperatures are supportive of the warm weather theme as well with +8C to +14C in place much of the time.
Normal highs are in the low 60s this time of year so we will be at least 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Bottom line to the forecast is warm and showery through the period.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A warm front will surge north of the TAF sites in the next hour or two. Strong southwest winds will develop in its wake and a broad area of MVFR ceilings will develop lasting from around 14Z to 20Z.
We are expecting mainly dry weather in this time frame. The winds will be rather strong at 15-25 knots with gusts of 30-40 knots possible. Additional storms will develop this evening north of the TAF sites and gradually try to work in from the north overnight. Overall an unsettled aviation weather pattern with stronger winds and storms in the forecast.
MARINE
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Hazardous conditions will continue through tonight as southwest winds quickly build this morning. Southwest winds to 20-25 knots are expected with gusts pushing 30 knots. Areas of fog may develop tonight through Monday as warm moist air with higher dew points in the mid to upper 50s moves into the region. This warm moist air over cold water will result in fog, though strong surface wind may help lift inversion heights and disperse fog.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 754 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight
- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening
- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri
- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight
Michigan sits in the warm sector of a surface low currently centered over northwest Iowa / southeast Minnesota. As that low traverses northeast into Lake Superior today, scattered showers and storms will move through the area. A patch of these warm sector showers is currently traveling northeast from IL/IN into southern MI this morning. Elevated instability will increase through the morning, so some rumbles of thunder are possible.
Better chances for strong to severe storms exist later this evening and overnight as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
Surface heating builds instability throughout the day with HRRR MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and bulk shear near 35 to 40 knots. Low- level convergence will focus storm initiation near the surface boundary near and north of a line from Muskegon to Clare. SPC maintains a Slight Risk for that area today, with Marginal to the southeast. Main timing for the strong to severe storms will be from 8pm to about 2am with wind and hail as the primary storm threats.
- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening
Active weather will continue into Sunday, though the risk for severe weather is low. Another upper low will eject out of the Southern Plains with its associated surface low moving into the region Sunday. We remain in the warm sector of this surface low with HRRR MUCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. So expect continued showery conditions with some weak storms. HRRR probability-matched mean total QPF by Sunday evening pushes 1 to 1.75 inches for areas north of a line from Muskegon to Saginaw.
- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri
The saying about "April Showers" will be very applicable to our forecast over the next 7 days despite crossing into the month of May. Chances for precipitation will be in the forecast each 12 hour forecast period through Friday with the exception of Tuesday.
The system affecting our weather this weekend will exit the area to the east on Monday into Monday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Sunday night through Monday night. Sunday night a warm front will be slowly lifting northward. Monday we will be positioned in the warm sector of the weakening system and Monday night the cold front goes east. Looking at ECMWF and GFS ensemble member plots of CAPE it is clear to see that deep moisture remains resulting in CAPE in every ensemble member. Showers and storms are in the forecast each of these 3 forecast periods. Lack of upper support in terms of a significant shortwave will likely limit and severe potential, but strength of the low level jet (30-45 knots)
suggest we will need to monitor. As of now, the SPC has us in general thunder for Sunday night through Monday night.
One dry forecast period on Tuesday with ridging moving through the Great Lakes will be short lived as rain chances reappear Tuesday night. Tuesday night a cold front moves in associated with a shortwave aloft off to our northwest. Thursday a warm front will try to push in from the south with a low remaining in the area then towards Friday.
- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week
GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance shows highs in Grand Rapids in the 70s Monday through Friday. 850mb temperatures are supportive of the warm weather theme as well with +8C to +14C in place much of the time.
Normal highs are in the low 60s this time of year so we will be at least 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Bottom line to the forecast is warm and showery through the period.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A warm front will surge north of the TAF sites in the next hour or two. Strong southwest winds will develop in its wake and a broad area of MVFR ceilings will develop lasting from around 14Z to 20Z.
We are expecting mainly dry weather in this time frame. The winds will be rather strong at 15-25 knots with gusts of 30-40 knots possible. Additional storms will develop this evening north of the TAF sites and gradually try to work in from the north overnight. Overall an unsettled aviation weather pattern with stronger winds and storms in the forecast.
MARINE
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Hazardous conditions will continue through tonight as southwest winds quickly build this morning. Southwest winds to 20-25 knots are expected with gusts pushing 30 knots. Areas of fog may develop tonight through Monday as warm moist air with higher dew points in the mid to upper 50s moves into the region. This warm moist air over cold water will result in fog, though strong surface wind may help lift inversion heights and disperse fog.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 9 mi | 78 min | 51°F | 29.80 | ||||
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 17 mi | 66 min | SE 16G | 64°F | ||||
| 45029 | 18 mi | 66 min | S 12G | 54°F | 46°F | 2 ft | 52°F | |
| 45168 | 18 mi | 66 min | S 16G | 59°F | 47°F | 2 ft | 29.85 | 53°F |
| 45161 | 38 mi | 56 min | 2 ft | |||||
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 40 mi | 96 min | S 8G | 64°F | 29.85 | |||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 41 mi | 56 min | SSE 21G | 57°F | 29.80 | 54°F | ||
| 45214 | 43 mi | 91 min | 41°F | 4 ft |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIV WEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 9 sm | 43 min | S 13 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.85 | |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 20 sm | 21 min | S 10G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 29.86 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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