Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wood Lake, NE
March 19, 2024 7:19 AM CDT (12:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:45 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM Moonset 4:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 191133 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 633 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Winter weather appears likely Saturday night and Sunday but snow and ice amounts are very uncertain. The best chances are mainly north and east of western and north central Nebraska.
- Below average temperatures are likely Friday through Tuesday.
This cold weather is being driven by an expansive area of arctic air predicted to build slowly south and east through the cntl/nrn Plains and midwest.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
60s are in place for highs today. The forecast uses a blend of the guidance and short term model blend plus bias correction plus a 1 degree mark up. This forecast is much cooler than the NBM which suggested highs near 70. Temperatures aloft at h850mb should remain below 15C supporting 60s and a modest cold front across SD this morning will move in this morning. The models show temperatures aloft cooling a few degrees with the arrival of the front.
A second stronger push of cold air across scntl Canada this morning will reach Nebraska tonight in the form of a backdoor cold front.
The RAP model shows this cold air backing in as far west as the Panhandle and the Colorado Front range by Wednesday morning.
Forecast highs in the 40s and 50s are a mark down from the previous forecast. There is even the chance of morning stratus across wrn Nebraska which would impact the daytime heating cycle.
Lows tonight in the 30s uses the short term model blend. The atmosphere should remain well mixed ahead and behind the cold front.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The basic forecast hinges on the strength of a 1045 mb arctic high centered north of Alaska near 75N latitude. The high pressure system will ridge very slowly south and east through the nrn Plains and Midwest over the next several days. A stationary front should develop, perhaps across the cntl high Plains of nern Colo/ern WY or farther west, dammed up against the Front range. The front and associated dynamics along with moisture aloft and upslope are the basis for likely POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
It's worth noting the models show a closed 700mb circulating through the nrn Plains during this weekend and this area is most favored for snow. Nebraska will be in a warm air advection zone on the south side of the low. Rain-snow chances in the forecast could be convectively enhanced. There are also significant differences in the ECM and GFS, like little or no predicted QPF in the GFS across wrn and ncntl Nebraska for this event. The POP forecast has been lowered from definite to likely Saturday night for this reason. Confidence in the chance/likely POPs in the forecast this weekend is low. The ECM and GFS ensembles show the sweet spot for snow closer to the upper low, north and east across SD/MN/IA.
For the temperature forecast, temperatures came in slightly lower with 30s and 40s in place Friday and beyond. Warm air should surge east to near highway 83 Thursday. What is uncertain is cloud cover which could have a big impact on temperatures both day and night.
The prospect of a dirty ridge situation which would present widespread low clouds and areas of fog is uncertain at this point.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will prevail today across all of western and north central Nebraska. Skies will be clear with winds generally 10 kts or less. Scattered mid-level clouds develop this evening with continued VFR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 633 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Winter weather appears likely Saturday night and Sunday but snow and ice amounts are very uncertain. The best chances are mainly north and east of western and north central Nebraska.
- Below average temperatures are likely Friday through Tuesday.
This cold weather is being driven by an expansive area of arctic air predicted to build slowly south and east through the cntl/nrn Plains and midwest.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
60s are in place for highs today. The forecast uses a blend of the guidance and short term model blend plus bias correction plus a 1 degree mark up. This forecast is much cooler than the NBM which suggested highs near 70. Temperatures aloft at h850mb should remain below 15C supporting 60s and a modest cold front across SD this morning will move in this morning. The models show temperatures aloft cooling a few degrees with the arrival of the front.
A second stronger push of cold air across scntl Canada this morning will reach Nebraska tonight in the form of a backdoor cold front.
The RAP model shows this cold air backing in as far west as the Panhandle and the Colorado Front range by Wednesday morning.
Forecast highs in the 40s and 50s are a mark down from the previous forecast. There is even the chance of morning stratus across wrn Nebraska which would impact the daytime heating cycle.
Lows tonight in the 30s uses the short term model blend. The atmosphere should remain well mixed ahead and behind the cold front.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The basic forecast hinges on the strength of a 1045 mb arctic high centered north of Alaska near 75N latitude. The high pressure system will ridge very slowly south and east through the nrn Plains and Midwest over the next several days. A stationary front should develop, perhaps across the cntl high Plains of nern Colo/ern WY or farther west, dammed up against the Front range. The front and associated dynamics along with moisture aloft and upslope are the basis for likely POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
It's worth noting the models show a closed 700mb circulating through the nrn Plains during this weekend and this area is most favored for snow. Nebraska will be in a warm air advection zone on the south side of the low. Rain-snow chances in the forecast could be convectively enhanced. There are also significant differences in the ECM and GFS, like little or no predicted QPF in the GFS across wrn and ncntl Nebraska for this event. The POP forecast has been lowered from definite to likely Saturday night for this reason. Confidence in the chance/likely POPs in the forecast this weekend is low. The ECM and GFS ensembles show the sweet spot for snow closer to the upper low, north and east across SD/MN/IA.
For the temperature forecast, temperatures came in slightly lower with 30s and 40s in place Friday and beyond. Warm air should surge east to near highway 83 Thursday. What is uncertain is cloud cover which could have a big impact on temperatures both day and night.
The prospect of a dirty ridge situation which would present widespread low clouds and areas of fog is uncertain at this point.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will prevail today across all of western and north central Nebraska. Skies will be clear with winds generally 10 kts or less. Scattered mid-level clouds develop this evening with continued VFR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KVTN MILLER FIELD,NE | 13 sm | 27 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 25°F | 69% | 29.97 | |
KANW AINSWORTH RGNL,NE | 22 sm | 24 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 27°F | 65% | 29.94 |
North Platte, NE,
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